Pakistan has cost effective solutions to India’s ballistic missile defence system

[Safriz]

Absolutely Wrong Approach! MRIV's will be taken out by S400 before they reach terminal height to deploy and unless Pakistan has a land based supersonic cruise missile that we do not know about, all other missiles including Babar don't stand a chance against S400. The solution is there in strategy but it does not need to be revealed on an open forum

What?
Shaheen-3 reaches mach 4+ in first 60 seconds of flight. Ababeel is based on Shaheen-3 and a bit on the heavy side and may still reach mach-2+ in first 60 seconds of flight..
S-400 takes 10 seconds from detection, acquisition to launch and its radar is not beyond the horizon radar...
By the time a Pakistani Ballistic missile comes withing S-400 radar line of sight its already doing multiple Machs...
Lets say an S-400 has average speed of Mach 4 in the first minute of launch , which is the normal speed of high end Surface to air missiles. Then after 60 Seconds the missile will have travelled 81 Kilometers from Launch site. Not enough distance to shoot down any pakistani missile launched from say central or western Pakistan. After 60 Seconds the Pakistani misisle will have gone above and beyond the reach of S-400 in both speed and elevation. Then how do you claim that S-400 will just shoot them down?

There is no shortage of ideas but the million dollar question is what would actually work?

Russian military bases were subjected to swarm drone attacks by rebels in Syria in 2018, and they flopped. FYI: https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/43qbbw/russia-says-it-swatted-down-drone-swarm-syria-isis

I am sure that the minds behind those strikes were just as confident as you are in your view of things, but they learned a lesson the hard way.

PAF have EW capabilities but IAF is in the picture and S-400 feature AESA radar system to search for potential threats (AESA radar systems are very difficult to jam/spoof on average).

From the looks of it, Indians will position three S-400 batteries in such a way that they will be able to monitor activity of PAF deep inside Pakistani airspace, and make it unsafe for PAF to operate close to Indian border in its entirety.

It is also foolish to look at S-400 in isolation. It is important to look at Indian defenses on the whole because S-400 will affect our operations from beneath additional layers of Indian defenses. It is important to worry about additional set of defenses which would be shielding an S-400 battery in the face of an attack namely Spyder, Akash and Barak 8 on the surface. And IAF will be operating above.

You pointed out the need to create FAKE targets through EW ("fake targets created on multiple enemy frequencies") but Russians have pointed out that S-400 can cope with the stresses of EW environment.

"The video was filmed at the Kapustin Yar test range in the Astakhan region of Russia, during a test of the S-400 against ballistic missile targets. The test supposedly took place while the S-400 was under heavy electronic jamming conditions. Despite this, Russia claims all four of the missiles hit their targets during their mid-course stage of flight."

Source: https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/heres-russias-s-400-missile-system-in-action-and-heres-1746490022

Indians are also looking forward to counter FAKE targets in the physical domain (decoys): https://nationalinterest.org/blog/b...n-now-take-decoys-thats-really-big-deal-28627

We need to keep in mind that India is receiving help from Russia and Israel (two technological powerhouses) to strengthen its defenses, and India have a capable software engineering industry of its own.

I agree with Lt Gen Kidwai that our best shot is MiRV and four categories of cruise missiles. Even then, I see in this induction a major source of destabilization in the security environment of subcontinent because it will embolden India.

Unfortunately, we have no soft power to leverage to our advantage at present. Either our politicians sleeping or we are not in the position to take both US and China onboard and forge a joint political pressure point on Russia to cancel this deal.

Please dont post any maps showing Kashmir and GB as part of India...
Use your own picture editors and show the reality

 

[GumNaam]

There is no shortage of ideas but the million dollar question is what would actually work?

Russian military bases were subjected to swarm drone attacks by rebels in Syria in 2018, and they flopped. FYI: https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/43qbbw/russia-says-it-swatted-down-drone-swarm-syria-isis

I am sure that the minds behind those strikes were just as confident as you are in your view of things, but they learned a lesson the hard way.

PAF have EW capabilities but IAF is in the picture and S-400 feature AESA radar system to search for potential threats (AESA radar systems are very difficult to jam/spoof on average).

From the looks of it, Indians will position three S-400 batteries in such a way that they will be able to monitor activity of PAF deep inside Pakistani airspace, and make it unsafe for PAF to operate close to Indian border in its entirety.

It is also foolish to look at S-400 in isolation. It is important to look at Indian defenses on the whole because S-400 will affect our operations from beneath additional layers of Indian defenses. It is important to worry about additional set of defenses which would be shielding an S-400 battery in the face of an attack namely Spyder, Akash and Barak 8 on the surface. And IAF will be operating above.

You pointed out the need to create FAKE targets through EW ("fake targets created on multiple enemy frequencies") but Russians have pointed out that S-400 can cope with the stresses of EW environment.

"The video was filmed at the Kapustin Yar test range in the Astakhan region of Russia, during a test of the S-400 against ballistic missile targets. The test supposedly took place while the S-400 was under heavy electronic jamming conditions. Despite this, Russia claims all four of the missiles hit their targets during their mid-course stage of flight."

Source: https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/heres-russias-s-400-missile-system-in-action-and-heres-1746490022

Indians are also looking forward to counter FAKE targets in the physical domain (decoys): https://nationalinterest.org/blog/b...n-now-take-decoys-thats-really-big-deal-28627

We need to keep in mind that India is receiving help from Russia and Israel (two technological powerhouses) to strengthen its defenses, and India have a capable software engineering industry of its own.

I agree with Lt Gen Kidwai that our best shot is MiRV and four categories of cruise missiles. Even then, I see in this induction a major source of destabilization in the security environment of subcontinent because it will embolden India.

Unfortunately, we have no soft power to leverage to our advantage at present. Either our politicians sleeping or we are not in the position to take both US and China onboard and forge a joint political pressure point on Russia to cancel this deal.

Bro the solution is in the problem itself. We can already monitor deep inside indian airspace now thru awacs as they can. the ground radars won't give them any extra advantage. But we possess MIRVs while they don't. When they get the s400s 5 years later, they'll stand a better chance to monitor our airspace through the air rather the ground radars since any attempt to hinder PAF through the ground radars of the s400 will result in a shower of Mirvs on the locations of those radars. If we station a smaller 500 km range version of the Ababeels close to the border sending a message that turning on the s400 radars means we'll launch and kill them, those data maybe little truck mounted but they have to and stationary during use, they will have to install them 500km away from the border which will make them useless. I'm sorry but they just won't have that edge that they think they will. And also, doesn't it seem even slightly odd that with s300s and s400s in place in Syria, their hasn't been a single case of a successful interception by either of these 2 systems??? NOT A SINGLE BLOODY ONE! It's not like that they weren't used, I'm sure they were and their are plenty of video footage out their showing sams being launched. I mean come on! the u.s. and nato bombed Syrian sites multiple times, the u.s. OPENLY provided air support to both ISIS and the free Syrian army right in the face of the s400 and s300 systems looking at them and yet...NOT a bloody single successful bloody interception? Yar u.s. aur NATO ko kisi wajhay say it na confidence hay. That confidence wasn't merely based on political leverage.

Message not getting across in the sense that it is not leading to change of behavior. Instead of realizing they can't win by an escalating arms race, they are simply amassing more arms. They fundamentally believe they can outnumber, outgun, outclass, and outsmart us in a final grand battle. And this is all based on their economic power derived from backing by America et al.

To send the message across, we need to hit their economic power - hard.

Definition of stupidity: trying the same failed idea over and over again expecting different results.

the only time they had success was when they had political cronies within our ranks like bhutto and mujib. Everywhere else, the spunk monkeys have fallen flat on their swollen bungholes. Time to activate our assets in india and ruin their economy.

 

[HariPrasad]

gen shahib is in denial.
he did not mention what would happen to paf as soon as they take off they will be in s400 range

Ya but boasting do not Require any logic.

The fact of the metter is that in the situation of war, Pakistan airforce shall be totally useless including AWA&C.

 

[GumNaam]

Ya but boasting do not Require any logic.

The fact of the metter is that in the situation of war, Pakistan airforce shall be totally useless including AWA&C.

yech yech datch bicaj india haj chupa pawa vepan by vedic tikinaliji it us the danching spunk monkey!

bay ja bhag!

 

[Myth_buster_1]

Ya but boasting do not Require any logic.

The fact of the metter is that in the situation of war, Pakistan airforce shall be totally useless including AWA&C.

war is a different situation for paper tiger india.

 

[LeGenD]

Please dont post any maps showing Kashmir and GB as part of India...
Use your own picture editors and show the reality

Sorry my friend, it was not my intention to upset anybody.

My focus was on the defenses part only.

 

[GumNaam]

Ya but boasting do not Require any logic.

The fact of the metter is that in the situation of war, Pakistan airforce shall be totally useless including AWA&C.

it's getting old, you spunk monkeys have been farting the same line from your bungholes for the last 40 years and yet...kargil war bhi ho gai, indian air fart lost fighters and choppers with zero losses to us, india lost the biggest peak there that is with us to this day... koi aur dialog market may lao yar, bore kar raha hay tu!

 

[HariPrasad]

it's getting old, you spunk monkeys have been farting the same line from your bungholes for the last 40 years and yet...kargil war bhi ho gai, indian air fart lost fighters and choppers with zero losses to us, india lost the biggest peak there that is with us to this day... koi aur dialog market may lao yar, bore kar raha hay tu!

You had zeronloss in 1071 as well. You had zero loss in surgical strike as well.

war is a different situation for paper tiger india.

Paper tiger teared apart real tiger into two in 1971.

 

[GumNaam]

You had zeronloss in 1071 as well. You had zero loss in surgical strike as well.



Paper tiger teared apart real tiger into two in 1971.

first off, it is 1971 and as I said earlier, the real tigers WERE the crooked sellout politicians like bhutto and mujib within our ranks which are now all but gone.

and secondly, you mean...

 

[Hassan Guy]

Diminishing returns for its cost...given the close proximity of India and Pakistan. Even the best BMDs in the world don't have a 100% success rate...all India would need to do is MIRV their ballistic missiles. The close proximity of the missile(from launch to target site) meaning less reaction time...along with multiple warheads(and decoys) would reduce the effectiveness of the BMD to such an extent that it wouldn't be worth the amount of money spent on it...especially for a country like Pakistan with limited resources.

thats like saying nuclear weapons will never be used because they cause too much damage.

 

[Cookie Monster]

thats like saying nuclear weapons will never be used because they cause too much damage.

Right and ur argument is?
...nuclear weapons won't be used until u r pushed into a corner and have nothing to lose anyways. A last resort...to take the enemy down with u. That's why when u see nuclear powers at a stand off or engaging each other u don't see them jump at using nukes as the first go to thing. This is not to say that they will definitely never be used...but bcuz of the threat of massive destruction, they haven't been used since WWII(on Japan).

Now coming back from ur tangent that had no bearing on the argument. I never said that a BMD is useless. I just stated it's cost vs benefit with the specific scenario of Pak/India in mind. Of course it would be nice to have as an additional measure against India...but we r not Qatar. So unless u r willing to pay the bill for such a system, Pak will rather prioritize other more needed capabilities with its limited resources.

 

[GumNaam]

Right and ur argument is?
...nuclear weapons won't be used until u r pushed into a corner and have nothing to lose anyways. A last resort...to take the enemy down with u. That's why when u see nuclear powers at a stand off or engaging each other u don't see them jump at using nukes as the first go to thing. This is not to say that they will definitely never be used...but bcuz of the threat of massive destruction, they haven't been used since WWII(on Japan).

Now coming back from ur tangent that had no bearing on the argument. I never said that a BMD is useless. I just stated it's cost vs benefit with the specific scenario of Pak/India in mind. Of course it would be nice to have as an additional measure against India...but we r not Qatar. So unless u r willing to pay the bill for such a system, Pak will rather prioritize other more needed capabilities with its limited resources.

the missiles that the indian bmd can't intercept can be used with nuclear or conventional warheads. to take out the eyes and ears of their bmd systems, conventional warheads would more than suffice.

 

[Cookie Monster]

the missiles that the indian bmd can't intercept can be used with nuclear or conventional warheads. to take out the eyes and ears of their bmd systems, conventional warheads would more than suffice.

Technically anything can be intercepted. I assume u r talking about cruise missiles like Babur here to take out Indian BMD systems...well they are also getting S400 SAM, which can take out Babur. In any case nothing is fool proof and with a multi prong approach of using stand off munitions, massive cruise missile volley to overwhelm, wild weasel type of jets(maybe in the near future?), not to mention MIRV ballistic missiles...
...MALD, stealth jets(to get as close as possible before being detected), and drone swarms are the more novel/expensive approaches that can also be used...though at the moment out of Pak's reach.
...in combination these methods can defeat and take out BMDs and SAMs.

In any case...I was answering his question about why Pak isn't going for a BMD system(for now at least).

 

[GumNaam]

Technically anything can be intercepted. I assume u r talking about cruise missiles like Babur here to take out Indian BMD systems...well they are also getting S400 SAM, which can take out Babur. In any case nothing is fool proof and with a multi prong approach of using stand off munitions, massive cruise missile volley to overwhelm, wild weasel type of jet(maybe in the future), not to mention MIRV ballistic missiles...
...in combination these methods can defeat and take out BMDs and SAMs.

In any case...I was answering his question about why Pak isn't going for a BMD system(for now at least).

s400s weren't able to take our a single u.s. tomahawk over Syria. And also, I too was primarily talking about MIRVs and cruise missiles used in combination.

 

[Cookie Monster]

s400s weren't able to take our a single u.s. tomahawk over Syria. And also, I too was primarily talking about MIRVs and cruise missiles used in combination.

I would take that news with a grain of salt. It could be true with various factors playing into it(e.g. mountainous terrain), which doesn't necessarily mean that S400 sucks against Tomahawk(or other analogous missiles). If the news isn't true...well then in that case we don't really know its capabilities.

I don't think Russians would spend billions to develop S400 only for it to be a sitting duck against Tomahawks. The nation's acquiring it like China, Turkey, India aren't fools either to acquire a system, which fails against Tomahawks.