Pakistan F-16 Discussions 2

[MIRauf]

Can our pilot in a jf-17 or f-16 or j10 shootdown/defeat an indian operated Rafaele in a dogfight??

Yes or No?

If you are a betting man, odd would favor Rafale on paper against the FC-1 / JF-17 specially Block I/II. Throw in other support aircraft that provide situational awareness AWACS, EW, etc and then the things get interesting just as happened during the Feb 27.

PS: Not enough is known about Block III or J-10C to draw any conclusions.

 

[Windjammer]

 

[m52k85]

Which pilot? Where? What scenario?
Its air combat - and you are simplifying it to a game of ludo.. even that requires probability

Average squadron pilot from both sides. In a neutral merge, who wins next more times than the other?

 

[SQ8]

Average squadron pilot from both sides. In a neutral merge, who wins next more times than the other?

More often than not it would be the Rafale depending upon how the fight plays out.
Lets say the F-16 pilot fights to his strength and the Rafale to his.. then the ratio may be 1.2:1 in favor of the Rafale.

But that is a very poor representation - almost like saying we have a calculated certain probability based on 500 factors with 1000! Combinations that x will happen.
No one has done that.

 

[ghazi52]

.,.,

 

[Windjammer]

AGGRESSORS.

 

[JamD]

Average squadron pilot from both sides. In a neutral merge, who wins next more times than the other?

More often than not it would be the Rafale depending upon how the fight plays out.
Lets say the F-16 pilot fights to his strength and the Rafale to his.. then the ratio may be 1.2:1 in favor of the Rafale.

But that is a very poor representation - almost like saying we have a calculated certain probability based on 500 factors with 1000! Combinations that x will happen.
No one has done that.

At the risk of being an annoying nerd, let me say something. Using "traditional" ideas of probability is problematic for rare events such as 1v1 air combat. There's a whole theory of rare-event probabilistics used by insurance companies for modeling this kind of thing. The bottom line is that it's hard to put a number on it, and even if you did put the correct number on it, the other person who isn't well-versed with rare-event probabilistics will misinterpret the number. And I'm assuming you can even put a number on it in the first place.

Statistical estimation for Large Numbers of Rare Events

The best we can do is put a gut-feeling gun-to-the-head number, which is what SQ8 has done. Bottom line - there is no objective answer.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

At the risk of being an annoying nerd, let me say something. Using "traditional" ideas of probability is problematic for rare events such as 1v1 air combat. There's a whole theory of rare-event probabilistics used by insurance companies for modeling this kind of thing. The bottom line is that it's hard to put a number on it, and even if you did put the correct number on it, the other person who isn't well-versed with rare-event probabilistics will misinterpret the number. And I'm assuming you can even put a number on it in the first place.

Statistical estimation for Large Numbers of Rare Events

The best we can do is put a gut-feeling gun-to-the-head number, which is what SQ8 has done. Bottom line - there is no objective answer.

Basically, there are points in the chain you can't control and you may as well pray for a favourable scenario (after doing everything you can realistically do on your end given your resources, training, etc).

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

Image taken before a Carnage. Only the real ones know about the Viper x Typhoon bloodbath at Anatolian Eagle.
Lumber Vun Pilots.

 

[MastanKhan]

Image taken before a Carnage. Only the real ones know about the Viper x Typhoon bloodbath at Anatolian Eagle.
Lumber Vun Pilots.

View attachment 857860

Hi,

Please expand on that a little bit.

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

PAF F-16B which was flown by Wing Commander Hasan Siddiqui when he shot down the SU-30MKI of Indian Air Force. The kill marking a visible on the aircraft ...

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

 

[SQ8]

Image taken before a Carnage. Only the real ones know about the Viper x Typhoon bloodbath at Anatolian Eagle.
Lumber Vun Pilots.

View attachment 857860

Yes - I heard PAF didn’t do so well in BVR

 

[Olympus81]

Any good read regarding the outcome of the exercise?