Gonna put you on an ignore list my friend unless you have something objective to say going personal and commenting like a teenager brings little value to discussion here, cool ?
On topic, I am arguing my case in terms geopolitical ramifications of multiple moves being undertaken by various actors in our region vis-a-vis Afghanistan and GHQ being an important player has its own card and refugees is one such card.
@pakistani342 : What is your take on this issue? I am of the opinion that until GHQ gets what it wants on the negotiation table, it will not completely deport all the refugees to Afghanistan, reason being refugees are being used a card and of course as foot soldier for her proxies.
true -- sorry for the short response I'm just up to my eyeballs with work today:
1. Yes, Agree, it is impractical to deport all Afghan refugees -- we're talking about 3 million people in one go -- even if it were it is unnecessary as it reduces the calibrate-ability of the response.
a. Plus, there may be a violent blow back -- many of these guys will not go quietly -- you take away people's homes and they do crazy things and the Afghan refugees have little to loose
2. But Pakistan may say deport 100,000 of the least desirable refugees: criminals, unskilled labor especially from KPK and Karachi (possibly from Punjab too) -- this will add severe pressure on Kabul
- it allows the GHQ to apply calibrated pressure
- it allows the GHQ to break the will of the Afghan defiance: it will reify the threat
- it is an ideal lever: use Afghans against Afghans
- it is a lever which can be applied for 10-15 years just keeping the water boiling
- a large part of these guys will blame the Afghan elite for this misers (plus the GHQ)
3. Pakistan will not deport the refugees from Baluchistan because it dilutes the Baluch nationalist's claim by diluting the Baluch population
consider this: 200,000 skilled Afghans have left for greener pastures (Europe) -- this is an invaluable resource -- people who were mentored by the West to think and work in a progressive mindset have been drained and to this say 200,000 unskilled refugees will fill their place. It's intense pressure on Kabul -- every such tranche costs Kabul about 2-5 years (in my guess) of development in the current environment.
For the GHQ to prevail they need to bleed Kabul of 15-25 years -- which means you have another lost generation with almost guaranteed follow-on lost generation. This will force the Afghan elites into a very serious rethink as it could make them irrelevant if the system further collapses.
Considering that this GHQ policy (if it exists) probably come into force since 2012 -- it is already almost 5 years in the making.
It may not be a very moral modus operandi -- but it's probably a lot more benign than any kinetic option that the GHQ may utilize.
