Pakistan Economy is the World's Third Fastest Growing Among Top 25 Economies

[RiazHaq]

http://www.riazhaq.com/2018/01/pakistan-economy-is-worlds-third.html

Pakistan is now the world's third fastest growing economy among the world's top 25 economies with PPP GDP of over one trillion US dollars, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). IMF has recently raised the country's 2018 growth forecast to 5.6%.

Courtesy: Ashraf Hameedi, Highforest Capital
Pakistan 3rd Fastest Among Top 25:

Spectator Index has ranked India first with 7.3% growth, followed by China (6.5%), Pakistan (5.6%), Indonesia (5.3%) and Turkey (3.7%) among the world's 25 largest economies in terms of PPP GDP.

Earlier in October 2017, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast Pakistan's economy to grow at 6.3% CAGR over 2017-2022.

World Bank:

The World Bank sees Pakistan's GDP to grow 5.5% in current fiscal year 2017-18 ending in June 2018, a full percentage point faster than the 4.5% average GDP growth for Emerging and Developing Economies (EMDEs) that include Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Nigeria and Russia among others. However, Pakistan economic growth continues to lag growth forecast for regional economies of India and Bangladesh. The report also highlights the issue to growing trade deficit and current account gap that could lead to yet another balance of payments crisis for Pakistan requiring another IMF bailout.


Source: World Bank Group
Pakistan GDP Growth:

Here's an excerpt of the January 2018 World Bank report titled "Global Economic Prospects" as it relates to Pakistan:

"In Pakistan, growth continued to accelerate in FY2016/17 (July-June) to 5.3 percent, somewhat below the government’s target of 5.7 percent as industrial sector growth was slower than expected. Activity was strong in construction and services, and there was a recovery in agricultural production with a return of normal monsoon rains. In the first half of FY2017/18, activity has continued to expand, driven by robust domestic demand supported by strong credit growth and investment projects related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Meanwhile, the current account deficit widened to 4.1 percent of GDP compared to 1.7 percent last year, amid weak exports and buoyant imports."

Growing External Account Imbalance:

The report correctly points out the problem of growing current account deficit that could turn into a balance of payments crisis unless the trade deficits are brought under control. Recent trends in the last three months do offer some hope with December 2017 exports up 15% while imports increased 10%. Exports in November increased 12.3%.

Along with double digit increase in exports in the last two months, Pakistan received remittances amounting to $1.724 billion in December 2017, 8.72% higher compared with $1.585 billion the country received in the same month of the previous year, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), as reported by Express Tribune.

Summary:

Pakistan is the third fastest growing economy among the top 25 economies in terms of purchasing power parity. Pakistan's economic growth is continuing to accelerate amid rising rising investments led by China-Pakistan Economic Corridor related infrastructure and energy related projects. The IMF sees Pakistan economy growing at 5.6% while the World Bank forecasts it to grow by 5.5% in current fiscal year 2017-18 ending in June 2018, a full percentage point faster than the 4.5% average GDP growth for Emerging and Developing Economies (EMDEs) that include Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Nigeria and Russia among others. However, Pakistan economic growth continues to lag growth forecast for regional economies of India and Bangladesh. The report also calls attention to the expanding current account gap as a matter of concern that must be taken seriously by the government to avoid yet another return to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

CPEC is Transforming Least Developed Parts of Pakistan

Per Capita Income in "Failed State" of Pakistan Rose 22% in 5 Years

Credit Suisse Wealth Report 2017

Pakistan Translates GDP Growth to Citizens' Well-being

Rising Motorcycle Sales in Pakistan

Depth of Deprivation in India

Chicken vs Daal in Pakistan

China Pakistan Economic Corridor

ADB Raises Pakistan GDP Growth Forecast

http://www.riazhaq.com/2018/01/pakistan-economy-is-worlds-third.html

 

[pin gu]

congratulations , very good news

 

[Beny Karachun]

>Thinking PPP matters in any way
Nominal GDP is what actually matters.

 

[MMM-E]

>Thinking PPP matters in any way
Nominal GDP is what actually matters.

GDP comparisons using PPP are arguably more useful than those using Nominal GDP when assessing a Nation's Domestic Market
because PPP takes into account the relative cost of local goods, services and inflation rates of the country, rather than using International Market exchange rates which may distort the real differences in per capita income

-- United Kingdom $2.88 trillion
-- France $2.83 trillion
-- Italy $ 2.31 trillion
-- Turkey $2.13 trillion
-- S Arabia $1,79 trillion
-- Iran $1.63 trillion
-- Egypt $ 1.2 trillion
-- Pakistan $ 1.06 trillion
-- Kazakhstan $ 472 billion
-- Qatar $347 billion
-- Israel $316 billion

 

[Beny Karachun]

GDP comparisons using PPP are arguably more useful than those using Nominal GDP when assessing a Nation's Domestic Market
because PPP takes into account the relative cost of local goods, services and inflation rates of the country, rather than using International Market exchange rates which may distort the real differences in per capita income

-- United Kingdom $2.88 trillion
-- France $2.83 trillion
-- Italy $ 2.31 trillion
-- Turkey $2.13 trillion
-- S Arabia $1,79 trillion
-- Iran $1.63 trillion
-- Egypt $ 1.2 trillion
-- Pakistan $ 1.06 trillion
-- Kazakhstan $ 472 billion
-- Qatar $347 billion
-- Israel $316 billion

I'll just quote Google:
"Nominal GDP shows the total productive output of a country, while PPP is an applied doctrine of the comparative value of money in different countries."
I think total productive output is more accurate and more important.
Most of the 3rd world countries with high populations have high PPP, but not nominal, and those 3rd world countries usually have no chance against 1st world countries economically.

 

[Baghial]

fccking crap...... numbers dont match the reality in pakistan

fccking crap...... numbers dont match the reality in pakistan

2+ 2 = nawaz sharif
2-2 = pakistani awam

 

[Śakra]

The subcontinent is the poorest region in the world. 6% is nothing, 8% is nothing, we need 12+% to have any meaningful change.

 

[MMM-E]

I'll just quote Google:
"Nominal GDP shows the total productive output of a country, while PPP is an applied doctrine of the comparative value of money in different countries."
I think total productive output is more accurate and more important.
Most of the 3rd world countries with high populations have high PPP, but not nominal, and those 3rd world countries usually have no chance against 1st world countries economically.

Countries are sorted by Nominal GDP estimates from financial and statistical institutions, which are calculated at market or government official exchange rates

Nominal GDP does not take into account differences in the cost of living in different countries, and the results can vary greatly from one year to another based on fluctuations in the exchange rates of the Country's currency

but GDP PPP takes into account the relative cost of local goods, services and inflation rates of the country, rather than using International Market exchange rates which may distort the real differences in per capita income


so what about International Market exchange rates ?

Greece use Euro , Netherlands use Euro , but Turkey use Lira

Turkey is under attack by The US,,Israel,,Germany backed Pkk,,Daesh,,Chp,,Hdp and FETO since 2013

and 1 USD rose from 1.8 Turkish liras to 3.8 Turkish liras between 2013 and 2017

that means Turkey had $863 billion of GDP Nominal by 2017 instead of $1,8 trillion GDP Nominal by 2017 ( if 1 USD = 1.8 Turkish lira ) or $1,2 trillion of GDP Nominal by 2017 ( if 1 USD = 2.8 Turkish lira

TURKEY
GDP Nominal by 2013 $823 billion ....... GDP Nominal by 2017 $863 billion
traitor Pkk,Chp,,Hdp and FETO destroyed Turkish Economy


GDP Nominal by 2017
Turkey : $863 billion
Netherlands : $777 billion
Greece : $194 billion

S Arabia $ 646 billion
Iran $376 billion
Egypt $332 billion
Israel $318 billion
Pakistan $278 billion


GDP PPP by 2017
Turkey : $2.13 trillion
Netherlands : $907 billion
Greece : $302 billion


TURKISH ECONOMY
--- Turkish Construction Industry is the 2nd in the World after China
--- World's #2 in flat glass manufacturing
--- World's #3 in TV export
--- World's 1 of the top 5 jewellery manufatcurers
--- World's #8 in the ship building industry
--- EUROPE's #1 in cement export
--- EUROPE's # 1 in textile manufacturing
--- EUROPE's #1 in light Commersial Vehicles producer
--- EUROPE's #2 in Bus producer
--- EUROPE's #2 in steel manufacturing
--- EUROPE's #2 in plastic manufacturing

-- TURKEY was World's 6th Tourism destination ( over 39 million Tourist by 2015 )

 

[Myth_buster_1]

So does that mean Pakistan can now colonize Moon by 2020?

 

[Hareeb]

There is no reason to be happy.
Real GDP (Nominal) is what really matters.

Secondly, big economies are turned to slow down due to many factors including higher wages, labour laws, production cost which causes a slowdown in production growth and lower capacity utilization.

 

[RiazHaq]

M. Ali Kemal and Ahmed Waqar Qasim, economists at Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), explored several published different approaches for sizing Pakistan's underground economy and settled on a combination of PSLM (Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement) consumption data and mis-invoicing of exports and imports to conclude that the country's "informal economy was 91% of the formal economy in 2007-08".

Prominent Indian economists Abhijit V Banerjee, Pranab Bardhan, Rohini Somanathan and TN Srinivasan teaching at MIT, UC Berkeley, Yale University and Delhi School of Economics believe that India's GDP estimate based on household survey (National Sampling Service or NSS) data is about half of what the Indian government officially reports as India's GDP.

Here's a quote from French economist Thomas Piketty's book "Capital in the Twenty-First Century" explaining his skepticism of production-based official GDP figures of India and China:

"Note, too, that the very high official growth figures for developing countries (especially India and China) over the past few decades are based almost exclusively on production statistics. If one tries to measure income growth by using household survey data, it is often quite difficult to identify the reported rates of macroeconomic growth: Indian and Chinese incomes are certainly increasing rapidly, but not as rapidly as one would infer from official growth statistics. This paradox-sometimes referred to as the "black hole" of growth-is obviously problematic. It may be due to the overestimation of the growth of output (there are many bureaucratic incentives for doing so), or perhaps the underestimation of income growth (household have their own flaws)), or most likely both. In particular, the missing income may be explained by the possibility that a disproportionate share of the growth in output has gone to the most highly remunerated individuals, whose incomes are not always captured in the tax data."


http://www.riazhaq.com/2017/05/comparing-ownership-of-appliances-and.html

 

[ziaulislam]

its easy to make up records
reality is pakistan is the slowest growing economy in south asia behind india and bangladesh

 

[RiazHaq]

There is no reason to be happy.
Real GDP (Nominal) is what really matters.

Secondly, big economies are turned to slow down due to many factors including higher wages, labour laws, production cost which causes a slowdown in production growth and lower capacity utilization.

Here are two reasons why PPP is a more accurate reflection of an economy:

1. Service sector accounts for significantly more than half of GDP in most major economies in top 25 today. For example, service sector contributes 53% of Pakistan GDP, 57% of Indian GDP, 77% of US GDP, etc. Service GDP includes things like haircuts, education, health care and retail where wages differ widely for the same or similar work. For example, a haircut in Pakistan costs a fraction of what it costs in America and Europe but it has the same value.

2. Most of the economic transactions are domestic. Exchange rate is important in trade which makes up less than 50% of the total GDP of most major economies. Trade to GDP ratio for Pakistan is just 25%. India's is 40%. US's is 27%.

 

[RiazHaq]

I am very optimistic about Pakistan's future. It will be among the biggest and most powerful economies in the next few decades.

I believe 135 million strong Pakistani millennials will change everything.

135 Million Millennials Drive World's Fastest Retail Market
Middle class expected to surpass U.K., Italy over 2016-21
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...llennials-drive-world-s-fastest-retail-market
Pakistan’s burgeoning youth and their freewheeling attitude toward rising incomes have turned the nation into the world's fastest growing retail market.

Pakistan’s burgeoning youth and their freewheeling attitude toward rising incomes have turned the nation into the world's fastest growing retail market.

The market is predicted to expand 8.2 percent per annum through 2016-2021 as disposable income has doubled since 2010, according to research group Euromonitor International. The size of the middle class is estimated to surpass that of the U.K. and Italy in the forecast period, it said.

Pakistan's improving security environment, economic expansion at near 5 percent and cheap consumer prices are driving shoppers to spend up big. Almost two-thirds of the nation's 207.8 million people are aged under 30, according to the Jinnah Institute, an Islamabad-based think tank.“We have a new millennial shopper at hand. They don’t mind spending to have the kind of lifestyle they would like,” said Shabori Das, senior research analyst at Euromonitor. “It’s not like the Baby Boomer generation where savings for the future generation was important.”
Pakistan is bucking the trend in the U.S. -- where stores are closing at a record pace as e-commerce undermines bricks-and-mortar. It's also attracting foreign operators: Turkish home appliance maker Arcelik AS and Dutch dairy giant Royal FrieslandCampina NV entered the market last year via acquisitions. Meanwhile, Hyundai Motor Co., Kia Motors Corp. and Renault SA are all building plants in the South Asian nation.

Pakistan’s retail stores are expected to increase by 50 percent to 1 million outlets in the five years through 2021, Euromonitor said. Its three biggest malls, Lucky One in Karachi and Packages Mall and Emporium Mall in Lahore, opened in the past two years.

Pakistan is mirroring what India went through about four years ago. Both countries have young populations with more income and less inclination toward saving which is a distinct difference to what retailers elsewhere are dealing with, said Das.

 

[N.Siddiqui]

I am very optimistic about Pakistan's future. It will be among the biggest and most powerful economies in the next few decades.

I believe 135 million strong Pakistani millennials will change everything.

That is now manifesting in the current turnaround Pakistan is having, check here the thread started by me incorporating this article about Pakistan retail sector with many related articles and dozens of pictorial presentations....




https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/paki...-worlds-fastest-growing-retail-market.533589/