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Pakistan: defining moment for democracy
Political maneuvering, manipulation and deals intensify as general and presidential elections draw near and Musharraf's time and options run out.
By Naveed Ahmad in Islamabad for ISN Security Watch (17/09/07)
Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf's political foes on Sunday reacted sharply to his desperate desire to manipulate a fresh presidential term by unanimously vowing to quit the legislatures.
The move followed a fresh backdoor change in Election Commission regulations for the eligibility of presidential candidates in the form of what the opposition is calling an "illegal" amendment aimed at facilitating Musharraf's candidature and his dual role as army chief.
The newly amended election rules exempt General Musharraf from an Article 63 disqualification, which otherwise prevents a government servant from participating in elections unless retired for at least two years while also denying the candidature to someone who holds an office of profit in the government service.
Presidential elections are due to be held in the first week of November. The president's supporters have indicated he will quit as army chief if elected to another five-year term.
"We will resign from the assemblies and quit the provincial governments as soon as the nomination papers of General Musharraf are accepted, allowing him to contest the presidential election," Raja Zafarul Haq of the All Parties Democratic Alliance and chairman of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League, said in a Sunday statement following an urgent meeting of the 32-party conglomerate.
The fresh amendment changing the rules for presidential candidates puts the Election Commission directly in conflict with the Supreme Court where a nine-member panel of judges resumes hearing on Monday regarding Musharraf's claim to the presidency and army chief offices for another term.
Devoid of any neutrality, the Election Commission of Pakistan has been acting in a partisan manner since Musharraf overthrew Sharifs elected government in October 1999.
Over half a dozen petitions by political parties as well as individual citizens are before the Supreme Court, seeking a permanent end to military rule.
"The Supreme Court is our biggest hope and Musharraf's worst nightmare," says lawyer Shaukat Siddiqui, who too took to streets for the restoration of popular Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, who was suspended in May after refusing to bow to the general's dictates but later restored to his position by the Supreme Court.
Despite hectic efforts after Chaudhry's reinstatement on 20 July, the Pakistani military ruler has failed to mend fences.
Zafarul Haq said the opposition would use every constitutional and political option to resist and block the re-election of Musharraf.
Growing power-sharing woes
Though all mainstream political parties attended the opposition meeting in Islamabad, Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) stayed away.
Thanks to the diplomatic maneuverings of British politician Jack Straw and US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher, General Musharraf's aides have covered much ground in power-sharing talks with the liberal-minded Bhutto. However, she does not seem happy with the outcome so far.
"Our talks are going nowhere. We cannot accept Musharraf in the presidency with his uniform on and he has been refusing to doff it," Bhutto told party workers in a telephonic address from Abu Dhabi on Saturday.
In the next breath, the two-time prime minister finally announced she would end her self exile and return to Pakistan on 18 October.
Her party spokesman, Farhatullah Babar, told ISN Security Watch that the doors of talks with Musharraf would remain open until Bhutto returned home.
Babar accuses Musharraf's political advisers of scuttling the talks. "Certain political opportunists want power at the cost of the democratic transition of the country."
The PPP, for its part, denies compromising over democracy for the removal of corruption cases against Bhutto and her spouse, Asif Zardari.
Skeptics find little truth in reports of Musharraf-Benazir discord. Pakistan's daily, The News, reported that Bhutto and Musharraf had quietly struck a new deal to keep the real power-sharing formula a secret for the time being in order to stem the growing resentment among the two camps' supporters.
The paper reports that the US and the UK, which are acting as guarantors, have asked the two sides not to reveal the details of the new deal until certain important decisions are made.
Diplomatic sources in Islamabad told ISN Security Watch that Boucher had shuttled between Abu Dhabi and Islamabad thrice in a week.
The deliberate ambiguity would help diffuse discontent in the ruling coalition, which has been falling apart since the restoration of Chief Justice Chaudhry.
Musharraf needs the existing ruling coalition as well as support from Bhutto's PPP to secure another term as president, provided the Supreme Court rules in his favor.
However, Babar terms reports of a secret deal as baseless. "Benazir is not scared of corruption cases and does not need a deal to return home," he clarified.
Official sources told ISN Security Watch that Bhutto would neither be arrested at the Karachi airport nor sent packing to a foreign capital upon her arrival.
On the other hand, even Supreme Court orders failed to keep Musharraf from deporting Pakistan Muslim League leader Sharif back to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on 10 September. But Sharif has been unwilling to deal with Musharraf.
At the time, mobile phone services were jammed and roads to the airport blocked as the government carried out a massive crackdown against political workers, arresting thousands of Sharif's supporters.
The endgame
Though Sharif's supporters could not put up an impressive show of political agitation after his deportation, Musharraf's disrespect for the judiciary and rule of law has once again been abundantly exposed.
The Supreme Court is likely to take up contempt of court proceedings against the Musharraf regime sometime next week - a development which could easily fast-forward the final countdown in the political transition.
"During the same period, the appointment of the new vice chief of army staff, if not the army chief, is to be made, which may also re-structure the top hierarchy of the military establishment and its thinking," writes Zafar Abbas, editor of Islamabad edition of Dawn newspaper.
Musharraf may opt for certain drastic options in a bid to secure his future as president as well as army chief.
"Imposition of emergency [rule] is an option, which could be used at an appropriate time," said Federal Minister Sher Afgan Niazi, who faces contempt of court proceedings for accusing judges of bias against Musharraf.
Constitutionally speaking, the legislatures can be dissolved and emergency rule - a notch lower than martial law - can be imposed for 90 days, suspending the exercise of fundamental rights.
Munir Malik, who led the movement for the restoration of the chief justice, said "Imposition of emergency cannot survive a judicial scrutiny, thus taking the military to its logical end."
While he says politics should largely be left to the politicians, not the judiciary, it is no time for the legal community to be caught napping. "We have a long way to go in strengthening the judiciary and upholding rule of law in the country," Malik, whose house was allegedly attacked by secret agents in the coastal metropolis of Karachi, told ISN Security Watch.
With general elections due in October, Musharraf's time is quickly running out and so are his options. His exit, whether sudden or gradual, appears to be close at hand.
However, the ills facing the country may not heal in a wink with the end of the Musharraf regime. The country is headed for a hung parliament as the nation stands divided on political, lingual and sectarian fronts. [B]In free and fair elections, Islamists are set to win a majority in the provinces of Balochistan and North West Frontier, both of which border Afghanistan, thanks to excessive use of force by Musharraf's army and failed pre-emptive strikes by US and NATO across the border.[/B]
With Bhutto siding with the military after the US-backed power-sharing deal, moderate politicians such as Sharif and Imran Khan would have no option but to forge an alliance with the Islamists.
Pakistani analysts believe that a Musharraf-Bhutto alliance would represent an extreme of a kind that would import US solutions to homegrown problems, while a Nawaz-Imran-Islamist alliance could possibly forge a path for a middle-of-the-road approach to deal with challenges such as terrorism.
The death of 20 commandoes in an alleged suicide blast in a high-security army mess hall last week speaks volumes of Musharraf's anti-terror policies and his rhetoric of dealing with its "root-causes."
ISN Security Watch - Pakistan: defining moment for democracy
Whatever be the outcome, Musharraf hold the Ace of Spades.
He will be a winner and he is quite sure of it and will make grounds to ensure so.
With the backing of the US and the West, nothing can stop him.
Apparently, it will be sour grapes for the Opposition and the Judiciary because nothing can stop Musharraf from ensuring that his plans for Pakistan is implemented.
