Pakistan as a superpower?

[Tang0]

The soviet Union was not a superpower until after the second world war, neither was the U.S. I don't think Germany could be considered significant regional opposition after 1945. As for his Agricultural policies not being disatourous, well, maybe not in the long run, but during the transition phase 5 million people died in a famine over a period of about 1 year, compared to the previous record of 500,000 set during the reign of the tzars. I would call that a disaster on the scale of the "Cultural Revolution" in China.

Lets ignore India and it's 1 billion people(Thats one metric shitton of potential rifles...but whatever) for the moment and address Pakistans's "geostrategic position". There is no way that a land route through Pakistan of significant bulk goods from China will ever beat shipping. To many mountains. A really great rail network can ease that somewhat, but gravity is gravity. How about an oil pipeline? Sure, but that all depends on how future oil discoveries develop, and the fact that alternative energy sources don't. Also, Pakistan's current government is not capable of defending such a spread out and easily disabled structure, it would need serious internal reforms first. Your statement about India is true, but who precisely is there to trade with in central Asia? Uzbekistan? I know! Everyones favorite trading partner Iran! I'm not saying they could not be important players in the future, but the forecast does not look sunny for that particular proposition.

I think that Pakistan's only real hope for becoming a superpower is to develop a large and educated middle class, and then just generally make better products and services than its neighbors. Wealth distribution->education->middle class-> stable government->good economy-> regional power->modernized millitary->"Possible long term goal of becoming a major world power on par with current superpower US"
Then again, Pakistan could always find itself a new Hitler, Stalin, or Mao who would skip a bunch of those steps, and kill 10-15% of it's population along the way. (Note, that I personally believe that would be very, very bad.)

 

[roadrunner]

The soviet Union was not a superpower until after the second world war, neither was the U.S. I don't think Germany could be considered significant regional opposition after 1945.

I was comparing the countries before the second world war. Germany was a huge power before the second world war and the Soviet Union had caught up with it from being a completely outclassed economy before the Bolsheviks took over.

From 1945 onwards, the Soviet Union just got more military and economic might. It was the Soviet reforms that made the Soviet Union into an economic and military superpower able to fight the Germans in the second world war.

As for his Agricultural policies not being disatourous, well, maybe not in the long run, but during the transition phase 5 million people died in a famine over a period of about 1 year, compared to the previous record of 500,000 set during the reign of the tzars. I would call that a disaster on the scale of the "Cultural Revolution" in China.

The famines weren't caused by the collectivization polices of Stalin, more the Soviet Union was prone to famines. Rather than distribute the grain, it became hoarded in bigger cities in anticipation of the famine. The peasants were just surplus people. Had there been no famine, there would have been no hoarding. This was harsh, but not uncommon at the time. Famines occurred in British India of around the same scale, it happens when resources are scarce in agricultural economies.

Lets ignore India and it's 1 billion people(Thats one metric shitton of potential rifles...but whatever) for the moment and address Pakistans's "geostrategic position". There is no way that a land route through Pakistan of significant bulk goods from China will ever beat shipping. To many mountains.

China-India trade will go through Assam. I was talking about the whole of Central Asia. The cheapest and really only way of trade between India and Central Asia is through Pakistan, plus the IPI and TAP pipelines are necessary and both must go through Pakistan. In terms of shipping costs versus land route costs, there's no comparison. Land routes win always.

A really great rail network can ease that somewhat, but gravity is gravity. How about an oil pipeline? Sure, but that all depends on how future oil discoveries develop, and the fact that alternative energy sources don't.

It's pretty much certain that India doesnt have much oil or energy resources. The Caspian does, Balochistan perhaps could have oil, but the subcontinent doesn't.

Also, Pakistan's current government is not capable of defending such a spread out and easily disabled structure, it would need serious internal reforms first. Your statement about India is true, but who precisely is there to trade with in central Asia? Uzbekistan? I know! Everyones favorite trading partner Iran! I'm not saying they could not be important players in the future, but the forecast does not look sunny for that particular proposition.

Not Iran. I'm suggesting that Iran would trade by shipping with India. Central Asia, that's Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Mongolia, Siberian Russia, Afghanistan, Kyrgyztan etc, all will be trading through land routes with India. The sea route would be more expensive and would have to course all the way round the Pacific around the Asian subcontinent to get to India.

I think that Pakistan's only real hope for becoming a superpower is to develop a large and educated middle class, and then just generally make better products and services than its neighbors. Wealth distribution->education->middle class-> stable government->good economy-> regional power->modernized millitary->"Possible long term goal of becoming a major world power on par with current superpower US"

A wealthy middle class is an indication of a good economy. For them to be educated is beneficial. But whether this is necessary depends on the economy make up. Industrial manufacturing doesn't need a very educated population, technical ability sure. Agriculture doesn't need it either. Software manufacturing would need it and so on. Depends what Pakistan's main exports are. Has to be a good balance at least.

Then again, Pakistan could always find itself a new Hitler, Stalin, or Mao who would skip a bunch of those steps, and kill 10-15% of it's population along the way. (Note, that I personally believe that would be very, very bad.)

Sure, but the Kulaks revolted against authority, though I sympathize with the anti-Ukraine predicament on the famine that should perhaps have been avoided.

 

[Tang0]

[Not Iran. I'm suggesting that Iran would trade by shipping with India. Central Asia, that's
Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Mongolia, Siberian Russia, Afghanistan, Kyrgyztan etc, all will be trading through land routes with India. The sea route would be more expensive and would have to course all the way round the Pacific around the Asian subcontinent to get to India.]

All of those countries you mention have extremely sparse and spread out populations, and they are much more likely to trade with Russia, China, or Europe, who already have developed industrial sectors than they are with Pakistan or India.

[A wealthy middle class is an indication of a good economy. For them to be educated is beneficial. But whether this is necessary depends on the economy make up. Industrial manufacturing doesn't need a very educated population, technical ability sure. Agriculture doesn't need it either. Software manufacturing would need it and so on. Depends what Pakistan's main exports are. Has to be a good balance at least.]

I can see no scenario where Pakistan becomes an major Idustrial ecomony. It might hope to be the provider of Industry to India, which has ridiculous labor laws, and an econmy that is headed toward the service sector, but it simply can't compete with China. Which already has an established industrial sector with more workers than the entire population of Pakistan. Any rise as an Industrial or trading player in the world is dependent on the rise of India. It is India that would need goods and oil going through Pakistan, and Indian money that would fill Pakistan's coffers. Superpowers can't be dependent on other nations in that fashion, especially not their regional competitors. They have to be able to support themselves with or without foreign money. Now, the *Power* bit can come from foreign trade, but your economy needs to be stable and able to front a fairly large army on its own before that happens.

All that said, I see no reason that Pakistan can't become a stable state and the dominate regional player within the next 20-30 years, but no, it's not going to be a superpower, and it should not bother trying to become one. Also, an adversarial relationship with India only damages the economy and military of both nations. Make that dissaper, and once they put the hundreds of millions of impoverished people to work, together they might become a superpower.... But hey, more pipe dreams, Muslims could never get along with their Hindu neighbors... right?

 

[kernayl]

I don't think much of them. Even if water is dirty, food is scarce, much of the population is illiterate it's not hugely important.

Whats is important then?

I think the most important thing for a state is to provide for its citizens. The relation of citizen to state is like that of mother to its child.

 

[kernayl]

A nation becomes a Superpower by its people not by its natural resources.

What keeps the people from educating themselves in Pakistan? They themselves. It's not that they don't enough money but if you see our people they just don't study enough. The value of education is just not instilled in our brains. And these days its just so much more. You need to do certifications, go on this training, that training hold a variety of skills as your job penetrates into so many areas.

You mean, millions of these kids roaming around the country, picking up garbage, polishing shoes, some even abused have parents who just do not want to educate them?

 

[salman nedian]

It is absolutely wrong to say that Pakistan have no natural resources.Pakistan have a vast land good for agriculture we have water,coal mines,gas etc. our beaches have enough amount of wind and we are a sunny country to be used as energy.

Now what we need to be a super power?

To me self Belief,education,Provincial autonomy,democratic system and most importantly our “Thinking” we should throw away the mentality of loosers and should stuck to our ideology.I have said before that separation of our eastern wing is the major cause for our demoralization we should try to regain it back offcourse not with force but with love consider we as a whole are the third largest country of the world.so the problem of population is resolved now.

What else do we need?

If we define our direction Allah will definitely help us. And Inshallah one day Pakistan will be united and will become a super power.

 

[HK-47]

regaining back Bangladesh/East Bengal?nah we love to be on our own thanks.
you better concentrate on your own 'wing' now.

 

[roadrunner]

All of those countries you mention have extremely sparse and spread out populations, and they are much more likely to trade with Russia, China, or Europe, who already have developed industrial sectors than they are with Pakistan or India.

First just consider energy. 1 billion people in India and oil and gas reserves are virtually non existent in India. That alone cannot be done by shipping from Iran (which could be irrelevant anyway since the mouth of the Persian Gulf would be Pakistani waters). If it wanted to Pakistan could cut off supplies very easily. Yes, the Indians might threaten a military response, but what they can do? Not much since both countries have enough military equipment to fend the other one off. If the result is a superpower needing another power to be compliant, then I'd say Pakistan has considerable political influence.

The central asian states might get their stuff from alternative sources, but the question remains how India gets its stuff from central asia/Russia. At the very least Pakistan could cause a headache in the region with countries losing billions in GDP, which is enough to give it some political influence in the region.

I can see no scenario where Pakistan becomes an major Idustrial ecomony. It might hope to be the provider of Industry to India, which has ridiculous labor laws, and an econmy that is headed toward the service sector, but it simply can't compete with China. Which already has an established industrial sector with more workers than the entire population of Pakistan.

My point wasnt to compete. One example is the cotton and textile industry of Pakistan. It's exported in quite large numbers from Pakistan, but it doesn't need an educated labour force to create the cotton products. Sure the Chinese have more workers, but those workers will be working in areas other than cotton production generally. But my only point was education isn't needed all over, it depends on the industries present in Pakistan. Pakistan is also headed towards a services based economy.

Any rise as an Industrial or trading player in the world is dependent on the rise of India. It is India that would need goods and oil going through Pakistan, and Indian money that would fill Pakistan's coffers. Superpowers can't be dependent on other nations in that fashion, especially not their regional competitors. They have to be able to support themselves with or without foreign money. Now, the *Power* bit can come from foreign trade, but your economy needs to be stable and able to front a fairly large army on its own before that happens.

Superpowers cant be dependent on their competitors like that. That much I agree, but that's what's going to happen. So, you have one superpower that is dependent on its competitor, what does that make the political leverage of Pakistan over a superpower (assuming India gets there)?

All that said, I see no reason that Pakistan can't become a stable state and the dominate regional player within the next 20-30 years, but no, it's not going to be a superpower, and it should not bother trying to become one. Also, an adversarial relationship with India only damages the economy and military of both nations. Make that dissaper, and once they put the hundreds of millions of impoverished people to work, together they might become a superpower.... But hey, more pipe dreams, Muslims could never get along with their Hindu neighbors... right?

Right, but you admit Pakistan has political influence as a result of its geostrategic position, you admit it has a powerful military (ICBMs won't be too far away), and the only thing lacking in your opinion is a strong economy. If Japan or the Soviets could do it, why can't another country?

 

[roadrunner]

Whats is important then?

I think the most important thing for a state is to provide for its citizens. The relation of citizen to state is like that of mother to its child.

Well, they're not really that important for a superpower to be created as Stalin had proved in his Soviet Union.

 

[roadrunner]

It is absolutely wrong to say that Pakistan have no natural resources.Pakistan have a vast land good for agriculture we have water,coal mines,gas etc. our beaches have enough amount of wind and we are a sunny country to be used as energy.

Pakistan's resources aren't going to make it a superpower. They also won't prevent it from becoming one.

Now what we need to be a super power?

To me self Belief,education,Provincial autonomy,democratic system and most importantly our “Thinking” we should throw away the mentality of loosers and should stuck to our ideology.

Nonsense. Provincial autonomy will mess up Pakistan hugely. You can look at for example the idiotic 6 point plan of Mujib calling for provinvial autonomy that would have made a similar foreign policy for all federal units, that each had separate economies! That's not going to work. It'll just end up in in-fighting and increase the competition between provinces for a share of trade.

Democracy has nothing to do with it. The Soviet Union didn't need democracy to become a superpower did it?

I have said before that separation of our eastern wing is the major cause for our demoralization we should try to regain it back offcourse not with force but with love consider we as a whole are the third largest country of the world.so the problem of population is resolved now.

lol. Dude, East Pakistan separating was the single best thing that happened in Pakistan's history. Whilst the population would increase, it's of no use if the population is unproductive or is unable to manufacture anything productive because its land is submerged by water for half the time.

What else do we need?

If we define our direction Allah will definitely help us. And Inshallah one day Pakistan will be united and will become a super power.

Pakistan doesn't need another country to become a superpower. Get these silly ideas out of your head.

 

[salman nedian]

Nonsense. Provincial autonomy will mess up Pakistan hugely. You can look at for example the idiotic 6 point plan of Mujib calling for provinvial autonomy that would have made a similar foreign policy for all federal units, that each had separate economies! That's not going to work. It'll just end up in in-fighting and increase the competition between provinces for a share of trade.

No there is a misconception about provincial autonomy.It will give us segregation of responsibilities,will increase the feeling of freedom in the provinces.Provincial autonomy does not means that provinces are separated from the country.In autonomous provinces model the departments of Defence,Currency and Foreign affairs are handled by the Centre.

Democracy has nothing to do with it. The Soviet Union didn't need democracy to become a superpower did it?

Then what happened with Soviet Union?

lol. Dude, East Pakistan separating was the single best thing that happened in Pakistan's history. Whilst the population would increase, it's of no use if the population is unproductive or is unable to manufacture anything productive because its land is submerged by water for half the time.

Should we throw out our physically disabled brother out of our home?

Pakistan doesn't need another country to become a superpower. Get these silly ideas out of your head.

I have never said that we need a second contry to become a super power ,absolutely not.what I wanted to say that the disgrace should be removed from the face of motherland.

 

[roadrunner]

No there is a misconception about provincial autonomy.It will give us segregation of responsibilities,will increase the feeling of freedom in the provinces.Provincial autonomy does not means that provinces are separated from the country.In autonomous provinces model the departments of Defence,Currency and Foreign affairs are handled by the Centre.

You're saying that each provine gets what it produces? That means each province has its own economy. It's a ridiculous concept. You have a country where the economies don't act together, instead they compete with each other and perhaps even trade with each other! Then you'll have one set of economies with liking towards country A, and another provincial economy with a disliking of country A, yet they share the same foreign policy! How do you think this is going to work?

Then what happened with Soviet Union?

Soviet Union actually collapsed when democracy came along following the Gorbachev years. When the Soviet Union was a dictatorship it made its way to a superpower. Tell me again how democracy is one of the factors that will make you a superpower

Should we throw out our physically disabled brother out of our home?

Dude, perhaps your physically disabled brother doesnt want to live in your home! Sheesh Your physically disabled brother was able enough to side with your worst enemy and combine forces to defeat and kill you in the most humiliating way possible, and you still got your eyes filled with crap and want him (who willingly murdered you and continues to malign you) back in your home What can one say to this sort of blindness? It is better both are separated.

I have never said that we need a second contry to become a super power ,absolutely not.what I wanted to say that the disgrace should be removed from the face of motherland.

which disgrace?

 

[bhangra12345]

First just consider energy. 1 billion people in India and oil and gas reserves are virtually non existent in India. That alone cannot be done by shipping from Iran (which could be irrelevant anyway since the mouth of the Persian Gulf would be Pakistani waters). If it wanted to Pakistan could cut off supplies very easily. Yes, the Indians might threaten a military response, but what they can do? Not much since both countries have enough military equipment to fend the other one off. If the result is a superpower needing another power to be compliant, then I'd say Pakistan has considerable political influence.

The central asian states might get their stuff from alternative sources, but the question remains how India gets its stuff from central asia/Russia. At the very least Pakistan could cause a headache in the region with countries losing billions in GDP, which is enough to give it some political influence in the region.

Nope, one thing you forget is this, no pipeline to India is EVER going through Pakistan as long it is antagonisitic to even a slight degree with India. Sorry we cannot allow our pipelines to pass through the whims and fancies of Pakistan. All that which you are seeing right now, is the Pakistan's ability to deny land routes. Thats about it, which infact brings zero benefit where as the potential is large as the gateway to India and its billion plus population. You might have not noticed, but observe the Sakhalin deal with Russia, where we didnt have a route from there, but how its crude was exchanged and a different countries was brought out.

Pakistan navy singularly after the next 50 years will be a threat to todays Indian navy, but threat to then Indian navy, forget about it.

You talk of geopositional advantage of Pakistan for routes to Central Asia for India, but you can only benefit from it, if you are friendly to India. The moment you give even a single threat to India, India will look for other routes, costs be damned. Security is much more important. All I see in your posts are those threats but zero friendlyness, so I can only expect that you see greater benefit only by negativism.

 

[roadrunner]

Nope, one thing you forget is this, no pipeline to India is EVER going through Pakistan as long it is antagonisitic to even a slight degree with India. Sorry we cannot allow our pipelines to pass through the whims and fancies of Pakistan.

Well, you're wrong. India needs energy. If it doesn't get the pipeline through Pakistan, it'll just fizzle out. At least one of the pipelines needs to supply India, unless you think Iran and India can build one under the sea, or drill a big hole right through the Himalayas and man it.

All that which you are seeing right now, is the Pakistan's ability to deny land routes. Thats about it, which infact brings zero benefit where as the potential is large as the gateway to India and its billion plus population. You might have not noticed, but observe the Sakhalin deal with Russia, where we didnt have a route from there, but how its crude was exchanged and a different countries was brought out.

Explain Sakhalin?

Pakistan navy singularly after the next 50 years will be a threat to todays Indian navy, but threat to then Indian navy, forget about it.

I don't agree. Subs it's Scorpene versus Agostas. About the same, but the Agostas can launch the cruise missile. I don't think the Scorpene's can launch one. Surface fleet of course India has an advantage in number, but it won't matter. So long as Pakistan can occupy its waters in the Arabian Sea, it can cause enough trouble.

You talk of geopositional advantage of Pakistan for routes to Central Asia for India, but you can only benefit from it, if you are friendly to India. The moment you give even a single threat to India, India will look for other routes, costs be damned. Security is much more important. All I see in your posts are those threats but zero friendlyness, so I can only expect that you see greater benefit only by negativism.

Lol, hey, I hope Pakistan and India trade flourishes as soon as possible. It'll be good for both countries. The "negativism" was brought up to demonstrate the political influence Pakistan has over not only superpowers, but all over Asia. It's a demonstration of the fact that Pakistan can be a superpower once it gets its economy in shape.

I don't think India will be able to get its energy from any other route. It's just the geography of the land.

 

[kernayl]

Well, they're not really that important for a superpower to be created as Stalin had proved in his Soviet Union.

Didn't the soviet union crumble like a mud house onto itself without anyone firing a single shot?