Pakistan as a superpower?

[roadrunner]

I came across this thought provoking question on AllExperts.

"Expert: Michael Troy
Date: 5/27/2004
Subject: Pakistan as a superpower

Question
Mr Troy.....

I have a qeustion for you regarding Pakistan.
I know Pakistan not in your field of expertise. But perhaps your assistance could help.

Okay...Im trying to determine if Pakistan has a chance of becoming a superpower. What would be some vital factors that would contribute to the possibility of Pakistan becoming a superpower. How exactlt would that come to be? Could they be a superpower? Do they even have ambitions? If so what are they? In genreal of course.

THANK YOU
FRANK

It was answered as follows:

Answer
Hi Frank,

I'd put Pakistan's chances of becoming a superpower somewhere between slim and none.

To be a superpower, a country would have to have significant economic, military, and political influence around the world. Some would argue there is only one real superpower in the world today, and that is the US. But a looser definition would probably also include Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China, Japan and perhaps a few others.

Pakistan does not even seem to be on its way in that direction. To be a superpower, a nation must have a large population, a powerful economy, and a formidable military.

Pakistan has a significant population: around 150 million. But that is small compared to its neighbor and chief rival India, which has well over 1 billion. In addition, most Pakistanis are poor and uneducated. The nation is in a very unstable region of the world which shows no signs of improving. As such, it is not an attractive place for business and will not likely have a strong economy any time in the near future.

Pakistan does have a reasonable regional army, and is one of the few nations in the world with nuclear weapons. But there is no evidence that the military could even sustain a serious defense against a major world power. It would likely devolve into a conquered people engaged in terrorism much like in Iraq.

Since Pakistan has no significant natural resources, any economy would have to be based on an attractive workforce. The government and regional instability, lack of a good educational system or infrastructure make it unattractive to foreign investment. Domestic reform also seems unlikely. There are violent domestic dissidents, no single language or ethnicity throughout the country and no agreement on how to improve the situation. There would have to be massive social, political, and economic changes before they could even start thinking about heading in that direction.

Pakistan's main goals right now seem to be that it's dictator would like to remain in power. The government hopes to maintain control over dissidents through the help of foreign aid, particularly from the US. It's other main goal is to someday acquire the disputed Kashmir region from India. That has been the main dispute for as long as it has existed as an independent nation.

I hope this helps!
- Mike

Of course he's entitled to his opinions. I just wonder what do you think of his definition of superpower and how things like population, economy, and military are the most important factors. I think the response is pretty ignorant, but what do you think? I'll tell you why I think it later. Try respond without getting too emotional please!

 

[Goodperson]

I came across this thought provoking question on AllExperts.



It was answered as follows:



Of course he's entitled to his opinions. I just wonder what do you think of his definition of superpower and how things like population, economy, and military are the most important factors. I think the response is pretty ignorant, but what do you think? I'll tell you why I think it later. Try respond without getting too emotional please!

I dis-agree Japan with no significant natural resources, population can be a economic super power much ahead than its neighbour china with vast natural resources and population.

I donot see any reason why Pakistan cannot be a econimic super power it has location strategically important.

 

[roadrunner]

It all depends on your definition of superpower. Japan has a large economy, 4 trilliion, second largest, but it doesnt have a good military from what I know. So does it qualify for superpower status? Only in the economic sense perhaps. Russia of course has a much smaller economy than Japan, probably less people, but it seems to have more political influence than Japan and a much stronger military. If it takes economy, military and political influence to qualify as a superpower, then is it still possible for Pakistan to be a superpower? I think his population factor is a bit silly personally though. if the economy is strong, the military is strong, political influence comes with it, and that's more or less a superpower. Geostrategic position is a helpful hand for having political influence.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

I would agree with GP's analogy of Japan - wrt to a lack of resources and a relatively small population not necessarily being a hindrance in the way of superpower ambitions - also, depending on whether the policies, growth and development of the last few years continue, Pakistan will have resolved to a large extent quite a few of the issues that the author mentions in validating his observations.

But even beyond that, I believe that Pakistan, by virtue of its strategic location, could overcome some of the deficiencies in resources and population by acting as a "transit state" for the resources, goods and services of the CAR's, Afghanistan, India, China and the Middle East - therefore magnifying its economic potential and influence.

This has been a vision that has existed in Pakistan for quite a few years, though the most concrete progress in its realization has occurred during the Musharraf government - with the IP(I) pipeline, development of Gwadar Port, the Trade corridor (access to China, Afghanistan and the CAR's) etc.

Given continuity in policy and relative stability, I see no reason why achieving the status of a major power, if not super power, is beyond Pakistan, and it is definitely not something that "hasn't even been considered" - in fact, as mentioned, several concrete steps in that direction have been taken already.

 

[roadrunner]

Good point about the "Silk Route legacy" that Pakistan has. Being a transit point will increase its political influence throughout the whole of Asia when India needs access to Central Asian markets and they trade with India also.
Certainly could be considered a superpower in Asia eventually. Globally is a possibility though too I'd say.

 

[UnKnOwN]

I dis-agree Japan with no significant natural resources, population can be a economic super power much ahead than its neighbour china with vast natural resources and population.

I was gonna say the same thing. Having a great economy doesn't help much if the enemy can bomb your cities because you lack a strong army. Japan also doesn't play a major part in international influence. Only in its neighbors...

 

[TexasJohn]

For ANY country to become a superpower, it has to at the very least be it's own "internal Superpower". What I mean by this is in IMHO:

1. Electricty has to be sufficient and un-interupted. Entities stealing power are taken to task instantly.

2. Law and order have to be supreme and consistant. The Police are not underpaid to the point of being inherently corrupt. They enforce the law as required. Corrupt Policeman? - again, are taken to task instantly.

3. Water supply has to be clean and un-interupted also. Irresponsible officials are also taken to task for negligence.

4. Education has to be uniform for ALL kids. Compulsory for kids till High School. Is this happening?

5. respect for the constitution? Nuff said there!

Is ANY of this happening?

What do you think?

 

[roadrunner]

I don't think much of them. Even if water is dirty, food is scarce, much of the population is illiterate it's not hugely important. Never stopped the Soviet Union anyhow.

1) Dams, IPI, TAP, gas and various other projects are well underway

2) As the country gets richer, the police get paid more.

3) It can be boiled if necessary to make it clean..other than that i don't think Pakistan is short of water right now.

4) Yes, it's being reformed and education is improving

Globalis - an interactive world map - Pakistan - Youth literacy rate

5) The Constitution is pretty much irrelevant for being a superpower. Dictatorships like the Soviet Union were quite successful until democrats came along.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

And the Communists in China is making China a superpower.

It takes too long for a democracy to become a power, let alone a superpower!

That is why I don't really bother about these labels, even in the case of India!

Though I feel that literacy, clean water, clean environment, adequate food. good medical comforts for all, good communications i.e. roads, railways and airways et al is essential.

Hungry people with a rich majority, superpower or not, is ideal for revolution of the Communist type!

If people are complaining and howling about Musahrraf and Emergency, then they should wonder what it is to be under a Communist rule. My state has been under the Communist longer than I care to remember. If the atrocities and dadagiri of the Communists in my state is in a democratic India, I wonder what it will be under a totally Communist state!

 

[Awesome]

A nation becomes a Superpower by its people not by its natural resources.

What keeps the people from educating themselves in Pakistan? They themselves. It's not that they don't enough money but if you see our people they just don't study enough. The value of education is just not instilled in our brains. And these days its just so much more. You need to do certifications, go on this training, that training hold a variety of skills as your job penetrates into so many areas.

Today's Pakistan does have a lot of things done right. I see software houses, IT Infrastructure deployment, SWIFT standards, ITIL, COBIT, etc. It just all has to be in higher volumes.

In any competition between two people. It will be your knowledge that would differentiate the two. Notice the work places, the oldies are quickly being replaced by the newbies just because of their superior education. We are charged with our newworld knowledge and oldies often complain that they just cannot keep up.

Education is the key. If today our people get charged up as well, others too will have trouble to keep up.

 

[roadrunner]

Well, that's true too AA. I was thinking a bit narrowly .. A Tesla or Oppenheimer here or there would lift a country militarily and economically. But of course, industries need capable people too as the workhorses nowadays. So it's pretty important, but I think Pakistan is on the right track to achieving literacy goals.

 

[Tang0]

Some notes. Check your history, the Soviet Union had an extremely Literate populace compared to say...Anywhere else in the content of Asia during the time frame it existed(by WW2 almost 90&#37. Police in the soviet union rarely took bribes. That got you shot, simple as that. The soviet Union did not have any important regional competitors. Finally, Stalin killed 30 million of his own people turning the Soviet Union into a superpower, and the civil war before he came in to power killed a whole lot of people also. If Pakistan can get its house in order (The soviet way or the democratic way) it stands a chance of being a player on the world stage in the manner of Germany, the UK, or Japan, but I don't think it stands any chance of becoming a superpower any time in say...the next 100 years? Who knows though.. The U.S. and China could get involved in some type of disastrous engagement that depleted their resources, and India could become overpopulated....You can always dream.

Note that 30 million is a number resultant from not only political executions and the Gulag, but agricultural reforms that had many disastrous consequences.

 

[bhangra12345]

Some notes. Check your history, the Soviet Union had an extremely Literate populace compared to say...Anywhere else in the content of Asia during the time frame it existed(by WW2 almost 90&#37. Police in the soviet union rarely took bribes. That got you shot, simple as that. The soviet Union did not have any important regional competitors. Finally, Stalin killed 30 million of his own people turning the Soviet Union into a superpower, and the civil war before he came in to power killed a whole lot of people also.

The country would be a superpower, no doubt, but the people of Pakistan? What would you prefer? Pakistan with its people developed or a Pakistan with its own people put under foot but having international weight?

For me, if you ask about India, it is the without blinking first.

If Pakistan can get its house in order (The soviet way or the democratic way) it stands a chance of being a player on the world stage in the manner of Germany, the UK, or Japan, but I don't think it stands any chance of becoming a superpower any time in say...the next 100 years? Who knows though.. The U.S. and China could get involved in some type of disastrous engagement that depleted their resources, and India could become overpopulated....You can always dream.

Arey bhai, agar sapna hi dekhna hain to kam se kam us mein to dusroon ki barbaati ke baare mein mat socho. (Eng t: Dude, if all you want to do is dream, atleast in your dreams do not think of destroying others)

 

[Tang0]

Thats precisely what I was implying, the only way Pakistan would become a superpower anytime soon is if some really terrible things were to happen to the current powers that be, or it violently overhaul it's existing situation. I don't think either of those things are good. So, people of Pakistan, for the good of the world and yourself, don't try to make yourself a superpower, instead, focus on making your country a better place to live in. I would give the same advice to the rest of the worlds nations as well. Not that anybody listens to people who say things like that...*Sigh* Why can't we all just get along?
__
-Goodluck, Godspeed.

 

[roadrunner]

Some notes. Check your history, the Soviet Union had an extremely Literate populace compared to say...Anywhere else in the content of Asia during the time frame it existed(by WW2 almost 90%). Police in the soviet union rarely took bribes. That got you shot, simple as that. The soviet Union did not have any important regional competitors. Finally, Stalin killed 30 million of his own people turning the Soviet Union into a superpower, and the civil war before he came in to power killed a whole lot of people also.

The Soviet Union did have lots of competitors, Germany being one. The Soviets were well behind the Germans in terms of manufacturing output, industries, agriculture until Stalin came along. What did Stalin do? He introduced economic reforms, collectivization, for example merging up the farming plots so that wealthy bourgeoise kulaks could not syphon up all the money made off proleteriats, one way in which agricultural efficiency increased. Of course a similar situation could be said to exist in Pakistan with the sardars. Both the kulaks and the sardars bitterly opposed the federal governments efforts to reform areas and remove the kulaks (SU) or the sardars (PAK), because they lost their profitable jobs. Stalin sent them to the gulags and purged off other resistance, Pak government has been much more lenient with the sardars, and I think it's this leniency that slows down its progress. People like Bugti in Balochistan should have been eliminated immediately. Stalin would have done it, and he brought the Soviet Union from being an inefficient, unproductive country with poor literacy into a highly literate country. But it wasnt through education that this happened, it wa a combination of ruthlessness and reform. It's possible to educate everyone and do the same, but it won't guarantee the result like Stalin's method.

If Pakistan can get its house in order (The soviet way or the democratic way) it stands a chance of being a player on the world stage in the manner of Germany, the UK, or Japan, but I don't think it stands any chance of becoming a superpower any time in say...the next 100 years? Who knows though.. The U.S. and China could get involved in some type of disastrous engagement that depleted their resources, and India could become overpopulated....You can always dream.

Note that 30 million is a number resultant from not only political executions and the Gulag, but agricultural reforms that had many disastrous consequences.

No, his agricultural reforms were not disastrous from an economic pov. They were met with resistance and oppresion, but the consequences for the economy were very positive. I'm not sure why you're briniging India into this either, they have arguably a worse literacy problem than Pakistan right now, and I don't see there being any superpower status comparable to the US or China in the next 100 years either. However, the difference between Pakistan and India, China, US is this. India is isolated geographically, the US is basically the economy of the Americas, China is on the fringe of Asia. Pakistan is somewhere in the middle. Any land route into India must go through Pakistan, any trade between India and central asia must go through Pakistan. This gives it political influence. India won't be able to do much without the consent of the Pakistanis in that case, this alone would cause a smaller power to humble a "superpower" in the future. So which is the superpower in this case, India or Pakistan? Then take into account the Arabian oil export and import route. The port of Gwadar was picked for a reason, and that is down to geography. One word, "geostrategy", will give Pakistan political influence all over Asia and globally to a greater degree than msot other countries of the world. Then account for the powerful military, nukes, cruises and so on, and then the only thing remaining is the economy. It's not impossible for Pakistan to create a substantial economy with few people as Japan has done, or even the United States, though it could never match the economy of the very highly populated countries, but would it matter? Not likely given the geostrategic position for one. Trade is more down to duty and quality:cost of product. Again this does not make a bigger economy the better economy to trade with.