Right now, reportedly, and seemingly, Pakistan and India are on the brink of war. I usually take OSINT reports with a pinch of salt, but the recent Foreign Minister statement and DG ISPR statement add degrees of validations to the reports.
Firstly, the official statements.
Just yestarday, Indian Army Chief warned that situation along Line of Control could escalate at any moment.
"
India is playing a dangerous game in the Region, Let me clarify, if India does something, the reply will be even stronger this time."
Foreign Minister Shah Mahmoud Qureshi in a video statement.
Earlier today, ISPR wanted to brief the public on an important matter as well but it the briefing was suspended for the time being.
OSINT reports and Foreign Minister's statements.
Coupling these statements released today with OSINT reports in the period of past 72 hours. I have summarized the main points below as there are only so many tweets I can share, but it's the same reports from multiple OSINT handlers on both sides of border. Foreign Minister confirmed these as well in video statement below, and has written an immediate letter to the United Nations. Video at end of reports.
1. India has removed fencing in 5 major sections of LOC.
The only reason for the removal of fencing would be to allow for a large movement of armory in bulk with freedom to mission planning.
2. India has inducted missiles at LOC including SPICE and BRAHMOS missiles, missiles are targetted towards Azad Kashmir. Heavy artillery and tanks movement and deployment along LOC has been observed.
Clearly points out their target.
3. India has already prepared forged maps of Kashmir. Their plans are crystal clear.
Apart from this, two other OSINT reports unconfirmed by Foreign Minister are these.
4. In the previous 72 hours, there LOC has been very hot, lots of cross border firing.
5. Combat Air Patrol sorties are being flown on both sides on the LOC.
Source: OSINT reports are many, but most genuine source for point 1 to 3 is the video statement of Foreign Minister.
Current Internal Situations
It is very important to note the timing, and why India is doing it right now.
India
1. Internet has been shut off in troubled states of India, mobile phone services have been turned off in Delhi. Metro suspended.
Source: https://m.economictimes.com/industr...-several-delhi-areas/articleshow/72881655.cms
2. Section 144 has been imposed in troubled parts of India; protestors are being pulled and jailed. Protests and demonstrations continue.
Source: OSINT
3. Indian Army's Chief's retirement is due on 31st of December, it is very likely India wants to make a move before that as it wouldn't want to lead such a war with a new Army Chief.
Conclusively, either India is pulling it all of to distract the world from the internal clampdown, or to get internal support and put the internal unrest to rest by using the excuse of war as a distraction; or India is actually looking to go to War over Azad Kashmir.
Pakistan
1. Pakistan Army Chief just 20 hours ago went to the SSG Headquarters.
Source: ISPR.
2. ISPR planned to give a briefing earlier today, briefing suspended.
3. Satellite images shows preparations made by Defence forces of Pakistan, all 3 wings: Air Force, Navy, and Army.
OPSEC, so I am not sharing.
What, When, Where?
What; India will likely either do a big bluff to attain a diversion from their internal unrest, or actually proceed forward for over Azad Kashmir.
When; Look towards this weekend. Things seem to be moving fast, specially with these bold statements by ISPR and Foreign Minister.
Where; My analysis is that LOC will most likely be a bluff and distraction. We should watch out N35 and Chawinda. Make no mistake though, their target is Azad Kashmir. They may push elsewhere than LOC to gain token regions to get edge and then push into Azad Kashmir in hopes that defences are weakened as infantry and armory relocations are done. Remember, Pakistan is anticipating it.
How; I don't know.
Above All
We need to realize. We need to immediately put our political differences and opinions aside and stand with our Army, now's not the time to get into arguments. Doesn't matter which political party you support, or which background you come from, in the end, we are all Pakistanis and for us the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Pakistan always comes first, so we must stand with our Armed Forces and give our full support, in every way possible, to defend our country Pakistan.
Remember the '65 war. How passionately the people supported our Army and defended the country. People would cheer on the soldiers marching through Lahore, offering them food and supplies. People from villages would pick up their guns and go to the border to seek permission to fight alongside, settling for nothing less than at least delivering our soldiers ammo. It was as if Pakistan had received divine help from God himself.
Slowly with time, these things seem to be over exagerated but, wow, did February 27th confirm this Jazba and Junoon of the people and our Armed Forces. We saw the very same on that day.
So if war is imposed on us, we must support our soldiers with the same spirit and valour; Jazba and Junoon; as was there on the 27th February, and was there in the war of 1965. India has seemed to forgotten the nose bleeding they received on the 27th February, this time we will do much worse to them, Inshallah.
"Oh people! Do not wish to face the enemy (in a battle) and ask Allah to save you (from calamities) but if you should face the enemy then be patient and let it be known to you that Paradise is under the shade of swords." Then the Prophet said, "O Allah, the Revealer of the Book, the Mover of the clouds, the Defeater of the confederates! Defeat the unbelievers and grant us victory."
Shahih Al Bukhari 2861
