ST1976
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Update your information; there is no way the IAF would have at least 200 MKIs by 2015-2016 - especially considering the fact that it just transfered production to Russia. It will take Russia a little while to gear up for production - and remember it took India eight years to induct its first 40 Su-30MKs. Russia will take its sweet time - as long as it can deliver the Flankers quicker than India would. The IAF will not have 200 Su-30MKIs before 2019-2020; by 2015 it could have about 140 at best. However the J-10 is poised as a potent air superiority platform; and in an AEW&C environment it will be able to match up against Su-30MKI - the PAF will have a lot more F-10As than 36 - more like 54-72 IMO. This will be coupled against 36 F-16C/D Block 52+ and at least 60 F-16A/B MLU3; the F-10As, F-16s and even JF-17 in an AEW&C environment can match up against Su-30MKI.
Currently the LCA is set for production sometime in 2010 - and the IAF has no firm orders for it; let alone 120-140 you projected. If the LCA is indeed ordered by IAF - expect 80-100 at best. The IAF is likely to have an additional 40 or so Mirage 2000s and upgrade its fleet to Mk2 standard. That would put them on Block 52+ standard (avionically); but what is not to say that IAF's 100+ Mirage 2000-5Mk2s will not be countered by additional used F-16s upgraded avionically to Block 52+ standards? The PAF can procure used F-16A/B/C/D frames for free and simply pay for the upgrades.
With regards to the MRCA; the IAF has yet to even choose the fighter - let alone negotiate and get it approved by their government. Even if IAF chose the fighter in 2007, it would take at least a year to negotiate and sign it; then it will take at least 3 years after 2008 to induct. Given the fact that India wants to produce the fighters at home - it will take time to produce local production facillities and what not; the IAF will at best have 40-50 by 2015. The MRCA could be considered as a higher tier 4th generation fighter - since it will be on the level of Block 52+; but what is not to say that PAF will reinforce its F-10A and Block 52+ fleets?
Neither India nor Pakistan will have 4.5 generation fighters; F-16 Block 52+, Su-30MKI, F-10A, F-16A/B MLU3 and Mirage 2000-5Mk2 could be considered as higher-tier 4th generation aircraft. While LCA and JF-17 would be lower-tier 4th generation aircraft; but the JF-17 is poised to cross that threshold if it is equipped with AESA, more advanced avionics and better weapon systems. The way the JF-17 has evolved from its original form - I would not discount it.
And do NOT forget the fact that IAF cannot concentrate its entire fighter force against PAF - whereas PAF can do so against IAF.
A 4.5 generation fighter would be Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, and J-10C/Super J-10; neither of which IAF nor PAF is poised to procure by 2015.
i just looked on wikipedia regarding 4th and 4.5th gen aircrafts. please have a look on it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4th_generation_jet_fighter
here is a link for future Air crafts of India and also when it may be delivered please have a look:
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Air superiority aircraft
The Sukhoi Su-30MKI (MKI: 'Multifunctional Commercial - Indian') is the IAF's prime air superiority combat aircraft. The Su-30K variant was first acquired in 1996. In October 2004, the IAF signed a multi-billion US$ contract with Sukhoi according to which Hindustan Aeronautics was given the license to manufacture 140+ Su-30MKI's with full technology transfer. HAL plans to manufacture about 15 of these aircraft annually. The twin seater, multi-role fighter has a maximum speed of 2500 km/h (Mach 2.35) and has a service ceiling of 17,500 metres. The aircraft with a normal fuel load of 5270 kg can travel up to 1900 miles and can carry 8,000 kg of external armament.
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Future Aircraft
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Eager to end its dependence on the MiG-21s, the IAF announced that it intended to purchase 126 aircraft worth over US$6 billion in 2004. The air force sent a Request of Information (RoI) for the following aircraft: Russian MiG-29 M2, French Mirage 2000-5Mk2, Swedish Gripen and the US F-16C. Besides the F-16Cs, the US has also offered the sale of F-16 Block 70 and F/A-18 Hornet 18E/F combat aircraft. However, the IAF seemed inclined towards purchasing the MiG-35 (MiG-29OVT). In 2005 it planned to purchase 12 Mirage 2000-5 from Qatar but Doha ceased negotiations with New Delhi for the sale of the aircraft claiming the bid quoted by India was too low. IAF has placed an order for 29 upgraded versions of indigenously-manufactured Jaguar IM strike aircraft.
Experts estimate that for India to exert influence over South Asia and the Indian Ocean region, it would require at least 60 squadrons of aircraft performing multi-role combat, deep penetration strike, air superiority, air defence, reconnaissance and electronic warfare tasks. However, the IAF presently operates only 42 squadrons, making the acquisition of these, and other aircraft all the more vital. In November 2005, the Indian Defence Ministry decided to purchase 200 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft instead of the initial proposal of 126 aircraft, opening the door for more than one supplier. The value of the original contract was 6 Billion USD; the revised plan brings the total value of the contract to 11 billion USD. The new aircraft will not only increase IAF fleet but would also replace aging Jaguars, MiG-23s and MiG-27s.
It is reported that most IAF officers favour the MiG-35 and the Mirage 2000-9 over the F-16s and F/A-18 Hornets. MiG and Dassault have historically been reliable suppliers in terms of transfers of technology, licensed production in India, personnel training, supply of spare parts, maintenance and upgrading. IAF pilots and technicians are familiar with earlier aircraft from MiG and Dassault and would need minimal retraining. Infrastructural and logistical support for maintenance and spares would also be easier for these aircraft compared to the unfamiliar Gripens, F-16s and F/A-18s.
Apart from the 200 multi-role combat aircraft and 120+ Light Combat Aircraft, the Indian Air Force was recently given a clearance by the Indian Ministry of Defence to purchase 80+ combat helicopters, six to eight air-refuelling planes and some additional medium-range transport aircraft. India is eyeing to buy 10 to 15 C-130 HerculesJ aircraft.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Airforce#IAF_Aircraft
here it is clearly written that about 15 MKIs is planned to be produced anually. this totals about 150 by 2015 while IAF already has about 50 MKIs.
one thing i must say, there is nothing like if HAL has some problem then MKIs dosn't have future in India. this is for sure that HAL will keep producing MKIs, may be after some time in a rare case, otherwise i think they will not stop its production.
and again, if india has planned for spending $9bn-$12bn on MRCAs then certainly india is looking for some best aircrafts available in market. the link clearly state about the proposed "blk 70" and F/A-18 Hornet 18E/F combat aircraft. and if india is still looking for something else, this means india is looking for those which may be better than "blk 70s". and this is sure that these new MRCAs, 4th or 4.5th or even 5th genration, will be among some best in the world with full technology transfer.
and about J-10s or JF-17s, boss there is a generation gap between tech of china and western powers. even if Israel helping them for developing any aircraft, Israel is no reliable to china . no matter how you compare aircrafts, chinese aircrafts cant be compared with EUs or US.