Pakistan Air Force needs to replace 190 planes by 2020

[litman]

PAF seems to be more inclined towards the russian jets this time. most likely the su 35. the reliability of the russian tech is doubtful. indians always rate the su 30 mki as the king of fighters but the recent reports regarding the 55% availability show the crude hardware of the jet. such reports also came to surface during the red flag exercises and the US F-15 pilot( guy that indians really love) made fun of the "king of fighters". the chinese J-10 uses the same engine of su 30 and it is a single engine jet so it's safety can be a factor to be considered. rafale and eurofighter are simply too expensive for pakistan to acquire in large numbers. grippen NG may be considered.

 

[cloud4000]

do you honestly reckon the US senate has it in them to sell pakistan 60 F-16s which is less then half of what is needed to replace 190 aircraft. when 8 F-16s caused so much angina for india another 10 will lead to them having a heart attack and any thing more then this will cause them to have bypass surgery.

Does Pakistan have the $ for 60 F-16s?

190 by 2020 is a very high number of aircraft----and looks like they have been sitting on funds for awhile now---..

How did PAF put itself in a position that it had to replace 190 aircraft in a five year period?

Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves reach historic high $20 billion - Business - Dunya News

Doesn't mean anything. Debt servicing, paying for imports take up most of it. In addition, Pakistan's army and navy also have their needs.

 

[Donald Trump]

Hi,

And who is even asking you to believe that ?

Just saying!

 

[Shabi1]

Zarb e Azb is winding up, so financial burden on the armed forces will be easing up soon. Replacement of 190 aircraft is pretty much on track. The majority of the replacements will be done via JF-17s, further F-16 (new & used) acquisitions are to follow and a X aircraft acquisition will be announced around 2018-19.

So no need to get worked, just need to go into sit back and wait and see mode.

 

[Tank131]

@cloud4000 please read my post regarding the 190. Of the 190 airframes needed, less than half are unaccounted for. Most have already been factored in and can be offset when you add in for the expected increase in JF-17 production rate. Any shortfall and in a dire straight, ROSE Mirages can be kept on to be used as a stop gap. PAf would need to add 10-20 airframes acquisition /year (the expected difference between current and target jf-17 production) than it currently is over 5 years. Will it meet the target of 190? Probably not, but again it will maintain its 350-400 fighter threshold and in reality this is mostly a political statement.

 

[araz]

WASHINGTON: Pakistan Air Force needs to retire 190 planes from its current fleet by 2020, senior officials told Dawn while commenting on a report that the country was seeking another batch of 10 F-16s from the United States.

Jane’s Defence Weekly reported this week that Pakistan would seek to purchase these additional planes from the United States if the current deal for eight of these fighter jets is successfully concluded.

Last week, the US Senate rejected a move to shoot down the proposed sale, which is now in its final stages. On Saturday, the 30-day mandatory period, that allows Congress to block an arms sale to a foreign country, also passed. Although some technical details are still being worked out, the deal for these eight aircraft is almost final.

Jane’s Defence Weekly reported that Pakistan is now interested in 10 additional 16C/D Block 52 multi-role fighters, which are equipped with precision strike capability. Pakistan says it needs this capability to reduce collateral damage in the war against terrorists who often hide among civilians.

A “decision in principle has been made to buy 10 more F-16s”, a senior Pakistani government official told Jane’s, while adding that “the exact timing to place an order is yet to be decided”.

“No, not yet,” said a senior defence official when asked if Pakistan indeed had decided to buy another batch of 10 F-16s from the United States. “But we do need to retire 190 planes by 2020. And we already looking for various options,” he added.

The official said that the strong resistance it faced in the US Congress for buying a small batch of eight planes was ‘discouraging.’ “That’s why we are looking at other options too, such as buying them from Russia or France.”

The official noted that while French planes were “very expensive, the Russians are not and they are equally good”.

In September last year, Russia offered to sell Su-35 planes to Pakistan, which are among the fifth generation aircraft.

Pakistani officials say that India’s defence purchases also influence their search for a matching technology. India is already working on a plan to replace its current fleet of planes with fifth generation aircraft by 2020, forcing Pakistan to do the same.

They say that while Pakistan is not looking to match the exact number of planes the Indians have but they would like to maintain a fleet of 350 to 400 aircraft.

Pakistani officials point out that they also have a large-scale defence collaboration with China, “which is a great source of strength” for the country.

The eight planes that Pakistan is buying from the United States include two single-seat F-16Cs and six twin-seat F-16Ds, along with associated equipment - for about $699 million.

The US Defence Security Cooperation Agency says that the proposed sale would “improve Pakistan’s capability to meet current and future security threats”.

These additional F-16 aircraft will facilitate operations in “all-weather, non-daylight environments, provide a self-defence/area-suppression capability, and enhance Pakistan’s ability to conduct counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations,” the agency said, adding, “This sale will increase the number of aircraft available to the Pakistan Air Force to sustain operations, meet monthly training requirements, and support transition training for pilots new to the Block 52.”

Published in Dawn, March 15th, 2016

This is the pitch for the 10 16s Bl 52s plus possibly older EDAs.PAF is trying to get by with as little expenditure as possible preserving their funds for the next buy.
A

 

[Edevelop]

France produces only Rafale and historically both France and India have strong business and strategic relations. There was a time when we were sanctioned and India was given latest Mirage 2000s.

Russia is another country that has strong business and strategic relations with India. Just forget that they will sell us Su-35s. We are a tool to get more deals done. If things between Russia and India are really bad as some perceive it to be then why are they asking them to join PAKFA and giving them the license to produce SU-30MKIs ?

Here are some of our options:

Produce more JF-17s in numbers and latest blocks

Purchase as many F-16s as we can NOW, before India plays more lobbying tactics and Donald Trump comes

Buy J-10s or J-11s from China

Buy Eurofighter Typhoons and its possible due to a couple reasons. We have good relations with Britain and Germany, we are a new attractive market these countries have not tried, they are are looking for sales to compete with France, and, we can ask Saudis to use their influence if required.

 

[HAIDER]

India has emphasis on Rafale due to no string attach to engine. Otherwise , all eurpean fighter or swiss fighter has US engine. All these plane need US approval for 3rd party export.

 

[sohail.ishaque]

The official said that the strong resistance it faced in the US Congress for buying a small batch of eight planes was ‘discouraging.’ “That’s why we are looking at other options too, such as buying them from Russia or France.”

The official noted that while French planes were “very expensive, the Russians are not and they are equally good”.

In September last year, Russia offered to sell Su-35 planes to Pakistan, which are among the fifth generation aircraft.


Published in Dawn, March 15th, 2016

well, thats an interesting part...

And we're expected to believe that? Are we morons? So the terrorists are precision bombed by high tech F-16s whilst hiding in a crowd of civilians without causing collateral damage?

These planes are to be used against India. Period!

That is true, But i don't think they give a damn, to ur cry, The Americans,

 

[Mercenary]

Why doesn't Pakistan buy A-10?

US is retiring them, and they are ideally suited for counter-terrorism mission against the Taliban in FATA.

Pakistan should atleast make a case of purchasing these aircraft.

 

[salarsikander]

Just saying!

Hi,

Lets not act like Dehaati Aurat here. We have enough of them already across the border in their Govt

 

[Taimoor Khan]

The official said that the strong resistance it faced in the US Congress for buying a small batch of eight planes was ‘discouraging.’ “That’s why we are looking at other options too, such as buying them from Russia or France.”

This is the only encouraging statement in the article. We need to get out of this F-sola mentality.

The official noted that while French planes were “very expensive, the Russians are not and they are equally good”.

We can discard French as the only option they can offer is rafale and that is going to India, so it would be a big no no. That will only leave SU35. Chinese have already placed an order for their SU35s, about time we follow the suit. Infact we should have placed our order along side with Chinese to get the better deal. What a geopolitical message it would have been for the rest of the world. These kind of deals not only got military aspect to it but carry geopolitical implications as well. We are not playing the game we should have, this F-sola mantra is getting rather annoying.

 

[Blue Marlin]

PAF currently has:
76 F-16 (8 more on order given new deal, with possibility for potentially 10 more)--->Spares are said to have been acquired to keep the fleet running a minimum of 5 years without cannibalization.
70 JF-17
60 F-7PG (expected to serve into 2025)
125 F-7P
33 ROSE I Mirage 3
42 Mirage III (non-upgraded)
20 ROSE II Mirage V
14 ROSE III Mirage V
51 Mirage V (non-upgraded)

Realistically speaking, today PAF has only 146 Frontline Fighters. The JF-17 is being added to at ~16/yr and for now there are plans for 18 more F-16 (Total=94 with rumored plans of acquiring older models from international sources up to 110- 120).

Lets just deal with the 94 F-16s for now. We know that the eventual line (at least through block 3) will be 150 JF-17 (which at the current rate would require 5 more years to achieve at 16/yr). That gives PAF 244 front line fighters. Let us assume that as per plan the F-7PG are to serve until 2025 and the ROSE Mirages can also be lumped into that though 2010 was the supposed retirement timeline (meaning these may be airframes that are part of the 190). That adds 127 Fighters bringing the total number to 371 which is right smack in the middle of the number the article states the PAF wants (350-400 fighters), so while 190 jets need to be replaced (I think the ROSE Mirages will go before the PG given that the PGs are newer airframes), there are a total 218 fighters that need to be phased out (non-upgraded Mirages and F-7P) and this will not likely be done on a 1:1 basis. 80 will be overtaken in next 5 years by JF-17. Lets add the 67 ROSE Mirages in which do need to be ~1:1 to maintain battle efficacy so you are looking at the need to fill a total of 147 airframes (80 for sure with JF-17 and 67 unaccounted for). You want to throw the PGs in there and that will slightly overtake the 190 number (but really the PGs are point defense fighters and would not need 1:1 replacement. The Critical number is 67 which are currently unaccounted for ROSE Mirage Replacements.

That makes looking at this much more manageable. There are a number of ways to fill that number including the dreaded prospect of more F-16.
F-16: As @Quwa has stated in the past, older model F-16 A/B ADF/OCU which can use AMRAAM. Potential Sources for more F-16s:Venezuala has 21 F-16 that it is unable to operate. If these are acquired it would give PAF 117 F-16s (all AMRAAM capable). Jordan may sell off more older model F-16 but the ideal solution would be the Venezualan F-16s

Su-35:Is a possibility depending on talks with Russia. Provided the PAF has the $$, these are potential fighters which would be very beneficial for the PAF and would be the most advanced fighters in Asia in active service (along with Russian and Chinese Su-35). Up to 40 of these would be beneficial and potentially doable.

JH-7B: Would be needing electronic modifications with AESA radar (hopefully from J-16) and IRST but would be a low cost alternative to Su-35 and would be an Ideal strike fighter to supplement both PAF and PN needs

Typhoon: A costly but politically doable option. The funding would be astronomical and likley prohibitive but if a deal for 40 air frames were able to be worked from a financial standpoint, this would be the best solution.

Rafale: Given IAF is purchasing these, they seem unlikley, BUT if the IAF deal falls through (unlikely) then they are again a possibility, but the same issues as with Typhoon.

J-10C: Would be a potential solution given the issues of sanction happy US congress, coupled with the need to acquire a large amount of airframes quickly. If PAF is unable to acquire an additional 20-30 F-16 then the J-10C becomes a very real option, but it is NOT ideal. It would put the J-10C right in the middle of the JF-17 and F-16 in terms of physical capability, while electronically superior to both (though the Block 3 would likley be roughly equivalent). It operates in too many overlapping ways with the already large F-16 and JF-17 fleets and in that sense would be redundant. Only possibility of these entering PAF service is the need for a large number of airframes in a short period of time, and I think the PAF would rather have the ROSE mirages soldier on until more JF-17s are available than commit to a 3rd platform of similar capabilities to the other 2 in service.

Su-35 would be the ideal addition, short of that, more F-16s (unfortunately for PAF) are the most likely solution until a 5th Gen platform like the FC-31 enters service and starts to replace older block F-16s. The JF-17 will continue to be upgraded and, I very much agree with @MastanKhan that the model needs to be given the F-2/Gripen NG/Super Hornet treatment by scaling the design up 10-15%. This will allow the PAF to fit a much improved engine (like AL-31/AL-41 in place of the RD-93) and more hardpoints. Give it better RCS reducing features and you have the ideal F-16 replacement with a potential of ~7500-8000kg worth of payload and 9-11 hardpoints with integrated IRST and chin hardpoint for pods. This along with older variant JF-17s could serve with 60-80 (long term) FC-31 to form the fleet going past 2030-2040.

if pakistan were to acquire used f16's it would be from one country. the united states. sure Europe has about 100+ but they are very vey old. but the united states has some decent f16's which coincidentally are soon to be phased out as they will be replaced the the f35. these jets wont need approval via congress as there are retired/not needed anymore. and they are free, all you need to do is pay for delivery and the upgrades.

now there are plenty of options out there. and they have gone through way too many times but once again lets go through it again.

f16: lets see if the pentagon allows the eda for excess f16's.

su-35: viable option with the ability to pursue them but as the offacil said its not that advanced and also it would be very costly to maintain, but would make a brilliant replacement for the 50 mirage's in service with the naval wing.

jf-7b: now true it is a good fighter but it wont be pursued as quiet simply it's very old why buy something old. a good example of this is when Pakistan wanted a lead in fighter trainer [lift] the jl-9 was perfect but it was rejected because of one reason. why? its based of the j-7 and Pakistan wants a brand new jet. now the smart aleks out there will say how about an upgraded one. why would they need it ? the f16's are capable enough. a BRAND NEW fighter is required.

typhoon: perfect but you need to ask the saudis for money to pay for it. and also buying them low numbers is not justifiable. you will need about 72.

rafale: india will sign for them [eventually]

the j10 series: the al-31 engines is not powerful and reliable enough and would be a nightmare to buy. and its status of a hangar queen would rival that of the mki.

the solution go all out on a 5th gen fighter eith the j31 or tfx. the indians will get a 5th gen fighter in about 2023 pakistan can easily beat that if a fighter (j31) was procured. and they can buy them in bulk.

 

[Kompromat]

Su-35s are a logical purchase for Pakistan if bought in strong numbers.

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

Agreed. But I was listing the possibilities out there for completion sake. Personally, if the Flanker is unavailable and the JH-7B variant is unsuitable, then my suggestion would be get an extra 20-30 ADF/OCU F-16 A/Bs (that are AMRAAM capable) to bring the number to 116-126 and tolerate the lagging of 30-40 airframes until they can be filled by JF-17s (2-3 yrs time to do that number). The JF-17 after block 3 though absolutely needs to be enlarged if no Flanker or JH-7B is forthcoming. All future variants need to be of larger airframe with AL-31 or Al-41 as their powerplant. This will enable PAF to add strike capability to the fleet as a whole while simultaneously giving way to the natural F-16 replacement (FC-31), all while maintaining a strong 4.5+ Generation presence via Block 3/4/5 ect.

PAF would go for 150 F-16's at the most. 150-200 JF-17's.
This still leaves about 100 aircraft short from the 400-450 requirement as mentioned in the article.
Pakistan Navy is also interested in getting about 50-70 aircraft.

These figures are going to be around 200 aircraft at the end that are required.