Quwa
Research Partner
- Joined
- May 16, 2006
- Messages
- 2,538
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- 47
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blain2
What you're talking about is a self-induced privatization and restructuring program...that is a good thing given how bloody fat our bureaucracy is. However going towards an IMF solution is suicide...I am a Political Science student and the IMF plays a central role in 3rd World Misery.
Firstly the money is seldom kept in check and often finds its way into the wrong pockets or the wrong projects. Secondly, public expenditure on education and health care is cut even further...the work that the Musharraf regime did in this area will go down the drain. Thirdly, agriculture tax will probably affect the common man more so than the feudal lords...do note that some lords are in power and all they have to do is "increase productivity" on their land. Fourthly, the IMF usually focuses on agriculture and areas of comparative advantage...hence our commercial industrial capability will be further retarded during the IMF era.
Through IMF what will also happen is that Pakistan will go into a debt-cycle where the debt increases and a greater proportion of our annual budget will go towards servicing this debt. What still happens to countries like Chile and Indonesia is that they continue taking loans to repay other loans! The only solution is an economic miracle in which the State takes control of strong revenue generators and through very soft aid from China or KSA manages to advance those areas. For example the State would nationalize or ensure public ownership of all coal and gas fields, and use Chinese/Saudi aid to build refineries, etc. Then the State can repay the debt and continue its normal routine...
As hard or tempting as it sounds...WE NEED TO AVOID the IMF. It is only because we have a stupid 2 bit sell out govt in charge that we have reached this point. We need land reform, nationalization of natural resources and a very aggressive kick start in capital manufacturing...i.e. commercial ships, large vehicles, etc. At times a complete turnaround does require some radical policy changes...whether it is an Islamic, Capitalist or Communist Land Reform and Self Industrialization...it is a tough start.
What you're talking about is a self-induced privatization and restructuring program...that is a good thing given how bloody fat our bureaucracy is. However going towards an IMF solution is suicide...I am a Political Science student and the IMF plays a central role in 3rd World Misery.
Firstly the money is seldom kept in check and often finds its way into the wrong pockets or the wrong projects. Secondly, public expenditure on education and health care is cut even further...the work that the Musharraf regime did in this area will go down the drain. Thirdly, agriculture tax will probably affect the common man more so than the feudal lords...do note that some lords are in power and all they have to do is "increase productivity" on their land. Fourthly, the IMF usually focuses on agriculture and areas of comparative advantage...hence our commercial industrial capability will be further retarded during the IMF era.
Through IMF what will also happen is that Pakistan will go into a debt-cycle where the debt increases and a greater proportion of our annual budget will go towards servicing this debt. What still happens to countries like Chile and Indonesia is that they continue taking loans to repay other loans! The only solution is an economic miracle in which the State takes control of strong revenue generators and through very soft aid from China or KSA manages to advance those areas. For example the State would nationalize or ensure public ownership of all coal and gas fields, and use Chinese/Saudi aid to build refineries, etc. Then the State can repay the debt and continue its normal routine...
As hard or tempting as it sounds...WE NEED TO AVOID the IMF. It is only because we have a stupid 2 bit sell out govt in charge that we have reached this point. We need land reform, nationalization of natural resources and a very aggressive kick start in capital manufacturing...i.e. commercial ships, large vehicles, etc. At times a complete turnaround does require some radical policy changes...whether it is an Islamic, Capitalist or Communist Land Reform and Self Industrialization...it is a tough start.