Pakistan 5th Generation Fighter Possibilities

[Quwa]

I think the JF-17 will form the mainstay of our fleet for a fairly long time and efforts are being made to ensure the fighter is of contemporary standard. According to the PAF ACM, none of the primary avionics & ECM/EW on JF-17 are "old" and are of contemporary standard - i.e. same generation as counterparts used in at least JAS-39C/D & F-16 Blk-52+. There is no doubt that with the batch-II that these capabilities will be improved and upgrades will continue to roll out throughout JF-17's PAF service. I am willing to bet that even the weapon-systems will be of Meteor & IRIS-T standard in the form of T- & A-Darter.

Now onto the 5th generation fighter; first we must accept that a project of this scale will not be disclosed by PAF whether it exists or not. However going by Pakistan's general track record, it will always study new concepts. Network-centric capabilities have been explored since the mid-1980s, initiated in the late-1980s and gradually progressed to this day. So the purpose of this thread is not to dictate what the PAF should do, but what we should discuss and expect.

For starters...look at how the JF-17 was produced. It was no simple big purchase with ToT...PAF was part of the development since day one. Hence the Thunder is not a fighter we just imported, but something we developed with the heavy assistance of China. To prove this...look at where a lot of the manufacturing machinery came from...Sweden. If we were importing with ToT, where do you think PAF would be getting the machines needed to produce JF-17? So when looking at JF-17, consider that PAF learned a lot and gained significantly in many areas. In fact it has gained so much that it can confidently say that with time it will produce the entire fighter - except engine - at home. This is not like buying F-16 and calling it P-16...this is development akin to the Eurofighter and JSF project.

So with regards to any 5th generation fighter, we must think about the possibility of Pakistan taking up more responsibility in its design & development than it did with JF-17. IMO this discounts the project from being the Chinese JXX...I do not think our 5th.gen fighter and China's JXX will be the same. For one the JXX is a highly exclusive Chinese project that has been going on since perhaps the early 1990s. Second we must realize that as odd as it may sound, Pakistan itself too has independent public policies and interests. I can guarantee that there people within the military think tanks that are pragmatic enough to begin slowly moving away from foreign-centric policies and move towards truly independent interests. Of course this is very difficult to translate into the political situation we have now, but there is always a start.

You will see that any 5th generation Pakistani fighter will be a political symbol translating both power projection, industrial capacity, R&D and independance. Note that this does NOT discount foreign assistance from countries like China, Italy, France, etc, but we are looking at assistance. Note that Pakistan will develop avionics and weapon-systems for JF-17...through the AWACS project I think radar & ECM/EW as well. So with systems of the 4 to 4.5+ generation category being developed in Pakistan, who is to say that without a bit of contracted assistance we would not develop the next generation?

Regarding the airframe; well remember that we knew what was going on with JF-17 since day one. PAC/PAF know the methodology, resources, effort and knowledge required to produce JF-17...and would have to drag all that into Pakistan so that it can manufacture the JF-17 airframe. Again...foreign assistance from China & E.U (France & Italy) may be used to help us with a 5th generation fighter. However also look at the recent MoU with Turkey, it expicitly says cooperation in design of low-RCS airframe. Now this could mean something like a ALCM or UAV, but given the fact that TAI is involved with the JSF - we must know they have some serious stuff to offer. This adds another element into a Pakistani 5th generation fighter project...

The PAF had it made it clear that multi-national consortiums are the principle arenas where new weapon-systems are being developed. Now if you look around..."non traditional" partners like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Malaysia, Algeria & Egypt might be something to look for in this project. For one Saudi Arabia has no apparent 5th generation fighter option...but through Eurofighter will gain a lot, and with their resources develop themselves a lot. The Turks do have JSF/F-35, but they too are looking for extra capability and a true National Fighter to solidify their stance in the West. Malaysia, Algeria and Egypt I can explain reasons for them if you want.

So what would a Pakistani 5th generation fighter be? Well for one I think it would be a shift in doctrine...it might symbolize a phase from single-engine defence to twin-engine power projection. Note that PAF will require a fighter that can serve standard in as many missions and requirements as possible...that includes maritime. Then the addition of consortium partners such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia...would the Turks look for redundacy of a single-engine support fighter...what has been the Saudi doctrine been lately?

 

[asaad-ul-islam]

nice post, it was very informative. "machinery imported from Sweden" that answers my question on how indigenous the JF-17 really is. thanks.

 

[blain2]

nice post, it was very informative. "machinery imported from Sweden" that answers my question on how indigenous the JF-17 really is. thanks.

Precision tooling is something that currently remains the domain of the western countries. Even Russians don't have this piece figured out as well as the Americans and the Europeans.

Most of the POF machinery (Wah-Nobel) as well is of Swedish origin, setup with the assistance of the Swedes.

 

[IceCold]

Nice in depth analysis Mark sir. The artist impression of the JF-17 with likely two engines or perhaps even one like the JSF style already exists and if we do watch it closely, quite resembles to what might we be seeing in the coming future. Talks about increasing the hard points are already on the way as was clearly shown by the interview of ACM.
5th generation of what i understand are the next generation capabilites termed as a 5th generation that includes stealth, TVC, Super cruise. TVC and super cruise are something that we can expect pakistan to have in time but so far we have no experience with these technologies at all, as this capability other then the US is present with countires like Europe, and will be present with china in coming years, but stealth is an altogether different story and that is where the americans lead and are perhaps the only nation with active stealth technology. Another factor is an AESA radar. Again the americans lead in this technology as well.
I dont expect PAF JF-17 to be equipped with an AESA radar not until the chinese develop a version of their own and this will atleast take a decade or so for the chinese to fully understand and develop their own version of an AESA radar to be equipped with the JF-17 and J-10 fighters of the PAF. Same can also be accounted true for stealth.
Just my 2centts on the issue.

 

[ejaz007]

I doubt PAF is thinking about 5th generation fighter at the moment. PAF needs to concentrate on JF-17 and as long as it does not mature should not get involved in another project. Financial situation of the PAF does not provide the luxury of starting another project when the one is already going on.
Nice post though.

 

[niaz]

Let us not get carried away with Pakistan' part in JF-17. This was not a grass roots development. The development was based on Mig 21.
Just see what happened to Japan, Korea and India; countries far more technologically advanced. Japan spent a lot money on research and ended up with a more expensive and less capable aircraft than f-16!! LCA is still a long way off reaching its design objectives, and Koreans ended up with an advanced trainer instead.

Pakistan needs at least a dozen years to even think of a producing a modern aircraft such as Rafael or Euro fighter, to think of a truly 5th generation fighter such as F-22!!.

Even Chinese technology needs a lot of catching up to claim such an achievement. IMO, Pakistan should concentrate on avioinics and radar development. If we are in a position to match European countries in this field in the next decade. It would be truly great achievemnet.

We must learn to walk before we can win Olympic sprint.

 

[araz]

I am in the Niaz and Ejaz's camp at this point in time. Pakistan has just made its first forays into the designing and engineering aspect of JF17. I think it will take us atleast a decade more before we can absorb all the technical know how required before we even think about the next step. We have significant lacunae in our knowledge base and the fact that thunder lacks significant component of composites is testament to that. Considering that it took the US well over2 decades to perfect stealth and our nascent industry it does not make sense financially or otherwise to embark on a new peoject. I still feel that we will ally ourselves with china and perhaps participate with them to bring the next generation fighter to fruition.
As to your assumption with regards to Saudis and Turks, they too are not at the level at the moment to help Pakisatn as significantly as would be required to produce the next generation fighter.
The last querry in my mind is whether it would be possible to have a stealthy version of thunder. From what I have read and heard on various fora, the plane would need to be redesigned totally to satisfy the criteria of being stealthy. So in my view, The stealthy version will look totally different from Thunder.
My 2 Ps worth
WaSalam
Araz

 

[Always Neutral]

Let us not get carried away with Pakistan' part in JF-17. This was not a grass roots development. The development was based on Mig 21.
Just see what happened to Japan, Korea and India; countries far more technologically advanced. Japan spent a lot money on research and ended up with a more expensive and less capable aircraft than f-16!! LCA is still a long way off reaching its design objectives, and Koreans ended up with an advanced trainer instead.

Pakistan needs at least a dozen years to even think of a producing a modern aircraft such as Rafael or Euro fighter, to think of a truly 5th generation fighter such as F-22!!.

Even Chinese technology needs a lot of catching up to claim such an achievement. IMO, Pakistan should concentrate on avioinics and radar development. If we are in a position to match European countries in this field in the next decade. It would be truly great achievemnet.

We must learn to walk before we can win Olympic sprint.

Vey well said Niaz.

 

[EagleEyes]

I believe that we are very far from getting our own 5th generation fighter plane. Right now as far as i know is that we are trying to get the capability of producing JF-17 (to a good extent). Firstly, Pakistan has no experience with the engine. Pakistan also doesn't have the ability to design aircrafts (i assume) let alone design a 5th generation fighter plane. I agree that Pakistan is trying to get as much help it can get in this field, but that doesn't make us mature enough. The only possibility i see in the next 10 years is being able to get the JF-17 to a very superb level in its own class and bulking up the air force through the ADP-2019.

For all we know JF-17 has turned out to be a major success and major shift in the R&D of Pakistan, and it will continue to help Pakistan. No one knows where PAF will stand as far as the man power is concerned for the development of 5th generation fighter in 10-15 years. But it is likely to be a possibility and we hope for the best

 

[Proud to be Pakistani]

Very true Niaz!

JF-17 will be the backbone of PAF and will evolve in time but considering 5th Generation Fighter Developement at this time and technological structure of China and Pakistan is very unrealistic approach. Making JF-17 4.5 Generation looks possible in due time but 5th Generation i doubt it!

 

[xishan786]

If you wanna reach at cloud level aim at sky!!! I am certainly not in Niaz camp, PAF must start for 5th generation fighter.

financial crunch in my personal opinion should be rather taken as a supporting element we are not that rich a nation to have multitude of projects. JF thunder project should be used as a tool for leverage of next generation plane, Agreed that we dont have access to latest technologies but my dear brothers we also dont have nuclear techs just 2 decades ago. I am missing BCCI .

basically its not with PAF but its with Pakistan Govt I think its about time that we should re-evaluate how we spend our defence budget. we should be spending more in air and naval sector rather then army(certainly not on messes aka palces- no pun intended). If PAF can get Govt understand their importance then it wont be a big issue- belive me.

One thing i want people to explain which i always fail to understand is engine as it is said that we still dont have any plan for manufacturing of engines of any sort, I mean Jf would not be equiped with pakistani engine(how can it be when there is no plan fot it).

Its about time that PAF should involve universities and ask their help, defence production in Pakistan is so hush hush that you never know untill it is out. Let me give u intersting fact that jet engine designs turbo jet blah blah were made at UET but problem with our universities is that they dont have mechanism /resources to test these things.

I think its time that PAF and government should start open Technology innovation /design competetions, come on we are not that much primitive people we have certainly brains to carry with.

 

[niaz]

Quote

financial crunch in my personal opinion should be rather taken as a supporting element we are not that rich a nation to have multitude of projects. JF thunder project should be used as a tool for leverage of next generation plane, Agreed that we dont have access to latest technologies but my dear brothers we also dont have nuclear techs just 2 decades ago. I am missing BCCI .

Unquote

Just to clarify: Pakistan's Nuclear Programme started in the late 1950's. Our first reactor at Karachi (Kanup) was operational by the early seventies. It took us more than 40 years to reach today's level.

 

[MastanKhan]

Xishan,

In my previous posts, I was giving you the benefit of the doubt----but your comments about---

your quote ", I mean Jf would not be equiped with pakistani engine(how can it be when there is no plan fot it)."

You seem to have no idea what a jet engine is and what it takes to manufacture one---I firmly believe that you are mis-stating the facts about your job and qualifications---the pakistani universities donot have the ability to manufacture a simple internal combustion engine for a motorcycle---.

To manufacture a successful car engine is a 1 billion to 5 billion dollar project---talk about a jet engine for your frontline fighter---.

Webby---I believe that it is good to have more members---but you need to vette them a little better, before they start posting---or use the technique employed by defencetalk forum---' if they find out that you are not the pro that you state to be---it is O T D.

All our senior staff N engineers were doing their phd's in the late 50's and 60's and working in the u s and europe gaining useful experience----on a scale of 1----10 where the jet engine manufacturing technology maybe rated at a 10, the N technology would be rated at a 4 or a 5.

 

[xishan786]

Xishan,

In my previous posts, I was giving you the benefit of the doubt----but your comments about---

your quote ", I mean Jf would not be equiped with pakistani engine(how can it be when there is no plan fot it)."

You seem to have no idea what a jet engine is and what it takes to manufacture one---I firmly believe that you are mis-stating the facts about your job and qualifications---the pakistani universities donot have the ability to manufacture a simple internal combustion engine for a motorcycle---.

To manufacture a successful car engine is a 1 billion to 5 billion dollar project---talk about a jet engine for your frontline fighter---.

Webby---I believe that it is good to have more members---but you need to vette them a little better, before they start posting---or use the technique employed by defencetalk forum---' if they find out that you are not the pro that you state to be---it is O T D.

All our senior staff N engineers were doing their phd's in the late 50's and 60's and working in the u s and europe gaining useful experience----on a scale of 1----10 where the jet engine manufacturing technology maybe rated at a 10, the N technology would be rated at a 4 or a 5.

I am back

Mastaan Khan without any respect You are simply case of " defeated mentality" and seems to have no respect for Pakistan

webby take notice - you ban me for putting frog in somebody pants but you leave this arrogant man even for insulting the whole country.

I think its about time that we should leave thinking that what is more difficult on scales of 10. man what your point?? you wana say as it is sooooooo difficult so we are not suppose to take steps for building it??

and who told you that we the pakistani universities do not have the ability to manufacture a simple internal combustion engine for a motorcycle. (I think missile manufacturing and its motor manufacturing is easier then building a bycycle huh Mastan khan??)

once gain without any respect you are grossly wrong its just the case of priorities I think maybe our millitary leadership is more intersted in building glorified messes and carrers in civil then to work on serious projects.

and what is your formula of calculating prices?? 1- 5 billion for manufacturing of suuccesful car engine. Mr Khan nobody is gonna sell you jet engine manfacturing plants. you have to get it rather create your own!!! Its more case of R&D and commitment, there is no end of technology every now and then new concepts and technologies are poping up. All pakistan need to do in this regard is to commit itself to Air force, unfortunatly we are still living in infantry time (at least spending wise). and let civil sector jion this venture and we will have our own engine one day but for that we wil have to get rid of peopel with defeated mentality like you.

are you in some way related to Yahaya Khan??

 

[MastanKhan]

Xishan,

I am right in my analysis---you donot have any engineering background at a higher level----if you had, you would have know that it is easier to make a missile and its motor than to make a camshaft or a crankshaft for a four cylinder internal combustion auto engine.

Instead of putting simplistic / simpleton type question---read and learn----it is not a simplistic formula---being in the auto retail business for close to 20 years and reading material sent by the manufacturer and attending new car release seminars, that is where i know about what it costs to build a new engine from scratch.

Instead of getting into an argument with me and releasing a frog somewhere---read and learn---it might do you some good in the future. I donot post my comments here to satisfy my ego but for you to have a better grasp of situation and a better understanding of things.

Enjoy you stay second time around.