Jungibaaz
RETIRED MOD
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This thread I thought I'd make to address some of the very odd comments made by some posters rejecting the proposals or threatening to have them stopped, or general opposition without any substance.
Ground rules before I get started. If you criticism is that the projects are heavily Punjab orientated and that this is unjust, fine, please tell us why, and what should be done about it. Calls for violence, separatism, and any hate/racist comments will be removed.
So if you are going to post, let's talk details. Have a meaningful discussion here.
So firstly, I've seen maps being thrown around by naysayers and advocates. The advocates have no idea what all those colourful lines mean and the naysayers seem to think that only one super road, rail is being made directly to Kashgar.
To remind you all, a total of 51 MoU's were proposed in the announcements. Most of which have been approved. A few of which are either under construction, to undergo construction or are already completed.
Details of agreements signed during Xi's visit to Pakistan - - DAWN.COM
This is the number most often being thrown around; $45.6 billion USD for various infrastructure and energy projects.
China commits $45.6 billion for economic corridor with Pakistan| Reuters
Already the feasibility is looking good on these projects.
One of the 3 credit rating agency's Moody's had this to say:
The current status of the various projects of the 51 MoU outlines, are as follows, the below list also indicates which province the projects will be located in, or meant for use in, note that the energy projects need not be based for use in only one province:
Sources:
List of Pakistan-China MoUs
Ministry Of Planning, Development & Reforms – Press Releases - Note that in this link, there are 3 pages worth of articles and statements about projects, many projects are discussed here that are not part of the above list, and have not been included, and many are not Punjab based.
http://nha.gov.pk/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Confirmed-Minutes-of-238-Executive-Board- NoteMeeting.pdf Note- this document contains the various project outlines from the above list including others in more detail, including the length of construction between places and current status, feasibility and funds cleared for use. Reference for this. http://www.adb.org/sites/default/fi...0/reiwp-117-economic-corridor-development.pdf
http://pu.edu.pk/images/journal/pols/Currentissue-pdf/zahid6.pdf - This document and others like it discuss the above issues, and include further details about the implications of the first on the list of Gawadar port with regards to TAPI and Iran Pakistan gas pipeline projects, which are not province specific.
Pakistan has to keep pace with China on economic corridor: Iqbal - Pakistan - DAWN.COM More non-Punjab centric details, here, quoted source for 3rd on the list, Karachi Peshawar main line.
People also should note that the maps being thrown around against this tend to show one weird looking line diverted through the along the coast of Balochistan and then cutting into Punjab and through the areas of northern Punjab. Little do they talk about the significance of the existing Karakoram highway as part of these plans. There are plans for expansion of the current Karakoram highway as a part of these projects, included, in the above list of MoU, accepted after feasibility studies.
Details of agreements signed during Xi's visit to Pakistan - - DAWN.COM Again note the proposed graduation locations, non-Punjab. Abbottabad included.
For every bit of recently proposed project for Punjab based energy projects, there are more in Sindh and Thar, and other provinces. A few of which are included in the list as: Gwadar-Nawabshah LNG Terminal and Pipeline Project, 70 MW Hydro-Electric Suki Kinari Hydropower Project, Port Qasim 2x660MW Coal-fired Power Plant, Jhimpir wind Power project, Thar Block II 3.8Mt/a mining Project, Thar Block II 2x330MW Coal Fired Power project, Dawood Wind Power project, Hubco Coal-fired Power Plant Project.
Compare that to Punjab's list: Zonergy 9x100 MW solar project in Punjab, 720MW Karot Hydropower Project, Facilitation Agreement on Salt Range Coal-fired Power Project between CMEC and Punjab Government.
Now if that wasn't enough to put some ease to that shouting and anger about the supposed route change.
The above points are not to be ignored, new proposed routes are not the be all and end all. In fact, they've been called interim by Ahsan Iqbal too. Pak-China Economic Corridor: Senators issue ominous warning over route change - The Express Tribune
The fact is, the CPEC is far more diverse than one diverted road for you to oppose. Even that has reasons beyond, just bias. The Chinese are weary of getting involved where there are security concerns.
This is the reason why these security teams have been made specifically for these projects, thousands of Chinese engineers, and billions of dollars have been pumped into this, and to keep these projects safe from insurgency in Balochistan and KPK is a top priority, it's strange then why all these parties are petty enough to want to jeopardize their own future and spoil the plans of each others' governments as they have been doing in the past.
Army creates one China specific Division
Also, the security concerns and some proposals are of China's own making, and it is the choice of the parties involved, see here.
Wu Zhaoli, an assistant research fellow at the National Institute of International Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences had this to say:
Economic corridor will be lever for all of South Asia - Global Times
Lastly, if all that isn't enough to put to rest all these fears, this useless rhetoric and senseless bashing, here's something to chew on:
Route alignment controversy
Another controversy has been stirred like the Kalabagh Dam and the motorway alignment.
The controversy could go on for long and damage the national cause yet again.
There is no sensible reasoning in opposing the route alignment under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The basic idea behind the building of the CPEC was to link up the deep-sea Gwadar Port to Kashgar in western Chinese province of Xinjiang.
This is a transit route facility to be given to China.
In return, many areas along the route will be developed, boosting the economy of Pakistan as a whole.
The route alignment connects all four provinces including Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.
To say that route has been altered by the government is not true as multiple feasible studies have yet to be carried out.
Led by the Awami National Party (ANP), an All Parties Conference was held on 17 February in Islamabad that demanded ‘not to accept the alternative route to be built under the CPEC’.
It is ANP that also led the controversy against the construction of the Kalabagh Dam in the 1980s.
This time the party is not leading a solo debate.
Many parties have joined it.
They are the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islama (JUI-I), Watan Party, Balochistan National Party, National Party, Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and some members of human rights organizations and civil society activists.
They demand that the route must go through Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) so that the smaller provinces, neglected areas and backward communities can gain the benefits of the CPEC.
They believe that the map of the original route was changed by the government.
They want Quetta and southern districts of the KP to be a part of the proposed route.
The route connects the whole of Pakistan to China.
It is well-connected and balanced considering the geographical conditions of the country.
Balochistan, Sindh, Azad Kashmir, Hazara and Gilgit-Baltistan would be well-connected by the CPEC.
Hazara Division would occupy the most central space under the CPEC.
In fact, about 1000 km area of Balochistan will be covered under the route if it goes from Gwadar to Turbat, Awaran, Panjgor and Khuzdar.
If the route goes from Gwadar to Quetta and then Zoab, the Balochistan area that would come under the route would be 1300 km or about 50% of the total route.
Is the province being exploited?
Similarly, over 400 km area of Hazara Division comes under the route alignment.
These districts are Haripur, Abbottabad, Mansehera, Badagram and Kohistan.
If the alignment was made from Quetta to Zoab and then to Dera Ismail Khan, the KP area would extend to another 210 km, increasing to 610 km and the KP area share would increase to 23 % if the total length of the route would become 2,658 km from Gwader to Quetta, via Zoab, D.
I.
Khan to Hasanabdal and to Kohistan.
Is it exploitation of the KP province?
From Dina the route goes into Mirpur and then to Muzaffarabad by decreasing the distance of 150 km via Rawalpindi.
The route would connect to Muzaffarabad through a road from Balakot and Garhi Habibullah.
The Mirpur-Muzaffarabad route will be around 260 km, having a share of 10 percent of total route alignment.
The CPEC is not a ‘Punjab-dominated’ project.
If the upper route was adopted, only Bhakkar, Mianwali and Attock districts would be connected and the area of the route would be around 433 km or 16% and if the route comes from Rahim Yar Khan to Hasanabdal, it would be 865 km, increasing Punjab’s route share to 33% understanding that Punjab is the second largest province in terms of area.
The proposed sites of freight terminals and industrial parks would include Gwadar, Turbat, Panjgur, Jacobadad, Kholu, Loralai, Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur, Kashmore, Bhakkarm Abbottabad, Gilgit and Sust covering Balochistan, Sindh, Punjab, KP, and Gilgit-Baltistan.
It should also include some parts of Azad Kashmir.
It is not true that Balochistan and KP would be deprived of opportunities to be gained under the CPEC.
It is wrong to suggest that the route is avoiding those areas where insurgency has been going on.
Therefore, the CPEC route alignment controversy is baseless and an unfounded reality only meant to delay the project that is going to be inaugurated when the Chinese President visits Pakistan in April.
There is no question of depriving or neglecting backward areas and districts disturbed by terrorism.
Terrorists have been hunted out throughout the country, not just in specific areas or districts.
Not only technological considerations will be taken into account, but distance and economic feasibilities will also be considered by planners, geographers, civil engineers and other experts.
Routes should not be based upon political considerations and propagandas.
n The writer is Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad.
He is an expert on Japan.
Dr Ahmad Rashid Malik
Route alignment controversy
Ground rules before I get started. If you criticism is that the projects are heavily Punjab orientated and that this is unjust, fine, please tell us why, and what should be done about it. Calls for violence, separatism, and any hate/racist comments will be removed.
So if you are going to post, let's talk details. Have a meaningful discussion here.
So firstly, I've seen maps being thrown around by naysayers and advocates. The advocates have no idea what all those colourful lines mean and the naysayers seem to think that only one super road, rail is being made directly to Kashgar.
To remind you all, a total of 51 MoU's were proposed in the announcements. Most of which have been approved. A few of which are either under construction, to undergo construction or are already completed.
Details of agreements signed during Xi's visit to Pakistan - - DAWN.COM
This is the number most often being thrown around; $45.6 billion USD for various infrastructure and energy projects.
Documents seen by Reuters show that China has promised to invest around $33.8 billion in various energy projects and $11.8 billion in infrastructure projects.
Two members of Pakistan's planning commission, the focal ministry for the CPEC, and a senior official at the ministry of water and power shared the details of the projects.
...............................
Under the CPEC agreement, $15.5 billion worth of coal, wind, solar and hydro energy projects will come online by 2017 and add 10,400 megawatts of energy to the national grid, officials said.
An additional 6,120 megawatts will be added to the national grid at a cost of $18.2 billion by 2021.
"In total we will add 16,000 MW of electricity through coal, wind, solar and hydel plants in the next seven years and reduce power shortage by 4,000 to 7,000 megawatts," said Asif.
"This will take care of a growing demand for power by a growing economy."
The CPEC deal also includes $5.9 billion for road projects and $3.7 billion for railway projects, all to be developed by 2017. A $44 million optical fiber cable between China and Pakistan is due to be built.
China commits $45.6 billion for economic corridor with Pakistan| Reuters
Already the feasibility is looking good on these projects.
"Pakistan will not be taking on any more debt through these projects," said Pakistan's minister for water and power Khawaja Asif.
One of the 3 credit rating agency's Moody's had this to say:
Even though the project had not yet got off the ground, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Moody’s Investor Services – one of the three largest credit rating agencies in the world – has described the project as a ‘credit positive’ for the country, implying that the economic growth generated will eventually help the government’s finances.
“The government’s support for the implementation of the so-called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is credit positive for Pakistan because it will spur investment activity, boost bilateral trade flows and help ease the country’s growing energy shortages,” Moody’s said in a note issued to clients on Monday, according to a report in the International Business Times.
................................
Pakistan’s investment-to-GDP ratio is 14.6%, far lower than the median of 22.9% for countries with a B-rating, said Moody’s.
Another reason Moody’s believes this project will be positive for Pakistan is their belief that Islamabad will be able to get Beijing to finance several energy projects throughout the country that would reduce the cost of power generation, ultimately lowering the need for electricity subsidies – a key burden on the federal budget – and improving economic growth, which would in turn increase tax revenues for the government. Those two effects combined could substantially reduce the budget deficit.
The current status of the various projects of the 51 MoU outlines, are as follows, the below list also indicates which province the projects will be located in, or meant for use in, note that the energy projects need not be based for use in only one province:
Sources:
List of Pakistan-China MoUs
Ministry Of Planning, Development & Reforms – Press Releases - Note that in this link, there are 3 pages worth of articles and statements about projects, many projects are discussed here that are not part of the above list, and have not been included, and many are not Punjab based.
http://nha.gov.pk/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Confirmed-Minutes-of-238-Executive-Board- NoteMeeting.pdf Note- this document contains the various project outlines from the above list including others in more detail, including the length of construction between places and current status, feasibility and funds cleared for use. Reference for this. http://www.adb.org/sites/default/fi...0/reiwp-117-economic-corridor-development.pdf
http://pu.edu.pk/images/journal/pols/Currentissue-pdf/zahid6.pdf - This document and others like it discuss the above issues, and include further details about the implications of the first on the list of Gawadar port with regards to TAPI and Iran Pakistan gas pipeline projects, which are not province specific.
Pakistan has to keep pace with China on economic corridor: Iqbal - Pakistan - DAWN.COM More non-Punjab centric details, here, quoted source for 3rd on the list, Karachi Peshawar main line.
People also should note that the maps being thrown around against this tend to show one weird looking line diverted through the along the coast of Balochistan and then cutting into Punjab and through the areas of northern Punjab. Little do they talk about the significance of the existing Karakoram highway as part of these plans. There are plans for expansion of the current Karakoram highway as a part of these projects, included, in the above list of MoU, accepted after feasibility studies.
MOU on provision of Chinese Governmental concessional Loan for second phase up-gradation of Karakorum Highway (Havelian to Thakot) between Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China and Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
Details of agreements signed during Xi's visit to Pakistan - - DAWN.COM Again note the proposed graduation locations, non-Punjab. Abbottabad included.
For every bit of recently proposed project for Punjab based energy projects, there are more in Sindh and Thar, and other provinces. A few of which are included in the list as: Gwadar-Nawabshah LNG Terminal and Pipeline Project, 70 MW Hydro-Electric Suki Kinari Hydropower Project, Port Qasim 2x660MW Coal-fired Power Plant, Jhimpir wind Power project, Thar Block II 3.8Mt/a mining Project, Thar Block II 2x330MW Coal Fired Power project, Dawood Wind Power project, Hubco Coal-fired Power Plant Project.
Compare that to Punjab's list: Zonergy 9x100 MW solar project in Punjab, 720MW Karot Hydropower Project, Facilitation Agreement on Salt Range Coal-fired Power Project between CMEC and Punjab Government.
Now if that wasn't enough to put some ease to that shouting and anger about the supposed route change.
The above points are not to be ignored, new proposed routes are not the be all and end all. In fact, they've been called interim by Ahsan Iqbal too. Pak-China Economic Corridor: Senators issue ominous warning over route change - The Express Tribune
The fact is, the CPEC is far more diverse than one diverted road for you to oppose. Even that has reasons beyond, just bias. The Chinese are weary of getting involved where there are security concerns.
This is the reason why these security teams have been made specifically for these projects, thousands of Chinese engineers, and billions of dollars have been pumped into this, and to keep these projects safe from insurgency in Balochistan and KPK is a top priority, it's strange then why all these parties are petty enough to want to jeopardize their own future and spoil the plans of each others' governments as they have been doing in the past.
The new division with state-of-the-art equipment has been created in the army keeping in view the incidents of the past including killing and kidnapping of Chinese engineers in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa and Balochistan by the agents of the enemy to deter implementation of mega projects by the Chinese.
Army creates one China specific Division
Also, the security concerns and some proposals are of China's own making, and it is the choice of the parties involved, see here.
Wu Zhaoli, an assistant research fellow at the National Institute of International Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences had this to say:
Second, security concerns are a critical cause which helps to determine the path of this corridor. Terrorism is the biggest threat as to whether this corridor can be put in place as smoothly as possible.
An unknown number of terrorists, especially the Taliban, are still stirring up trouble in Pakistan's western regions. Killings of Chinese citizens in Pakistan's turbulent west have taken place in the past.
Security problems leave no alternative to the Chinese constructors of this corridor. And a detour seems to be the wisest choice.
Economic corridor will be lever for all of South Asia - Global Times
Lastly, if all that isn't enough to put to rest all these fears, this useless rhetoric and senseless bashing, here's something to chew on:
Route alignment controversy
Another controversy has been stirred like the Kalabagh Dam and the motorway alignment.
The controversy could go on for long and damage the national cause yet again.
There is no sensible reasoning in opposing the route alignment under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The basic idea behind the building of the CPEC was to link up the deep-sea Gwadar Port to Kashgar in western Chinese province of Xinjiang.
This is a transit route facility to be given to China.
In return, many areas along the route will be developed, boosting the economy of Pakistan as a whole.
The route alignment connects all four provinces including Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.
To say that route has been altered by the government is not true as multiple feasible studies have yet to be carried out.
Led by the Awami National Party (ANP), an All Parties Conference was held on 17 February in Islamabad that demanded ‘not to accept the alternative route to be built under the CPEC’.
It is ANP that also led the controversy against the construction of the Kalabagh Dam in the 1980s.
This time the party is not leading a solo debate.
Many parties have joined it.
They are the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islama (JUI-I), Watan Party, Balochistan National Party, National Party, Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and some members of human rights organizations and civil society activists.
They demand that the route must go through Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) so that the smaller provinces, neglected areas and backward communities can gain the benefits of the CPEC.
They believe that the map of the original route was changed by the government.
They want Quetta and southern districts of the KP to be a part of the proposed route.
The route connects the whole of Pakistan to China.
It is well-connected and balanced considering the geographical conditions of the country.
Balochistan, Sindh, Azad Kashmir, Hazara and Gilgit-Baltistan would be well-connected by the CPEC.
Hazara Division would occupy the most central space under the CPEC.
In fact, about 1000 km area of Balochistan will be covered under the route if it goes from Gwadar to Turbat, Awaran, Panjgor and Khuzdar.
If the route goes from Gwadar to Quetta and then Zoab, the Balochistan area that would come under the route would be 1300 km or about 50% of the total route.
Is the province being exploited?
Similarly, over 400 km area of Hazara Division comes under the route alignment.
These districts are Haripur, Abbottabad, Mansehera, Badagram and Kohistan.
If the alignment was made from Quetta to Zoab and then to Dera Ismail Khan, the KP area would extend to another 210 km, increasing to 610 km and the KP area share would increase to 23 % if the total length of the route would become 2,658 km from Gwader to Quetta, via Zoab, D.
I.
Khan to Hasanabdal and to Kohistan.
Is it exploitation of the KP province?
From Dina the route goes into Mirpur and then to Muzaffarabad by decreasing the distance of 150 km via Rawalpindi.
The route would connect to Muzaffarabad through a road from Balakot and Garhi Habibullah.
The Mirpur-Muzaffarabad route will be around 260 km, having a share of 10 percent of total route alignment.
The CPEC is not a ‘Punjab-dominated’ project.
If the upper route was adopted, only Bhakkar, Mianwali and Attock districts would be connected and the area of the route would be around 433 km or 16% and if the route comes from Rahim Yar Khan to Hasanabdal, it would be 865 km, increasing Punjab’s route share to 33% understanding that Punjab is the second largest province in terms of area.
The proposed sites of freight terminals and industrial parks would include Gwadar, Turbat, Panjgur, Jacobadad, Kholu, Loralai, Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur, Kashmore, Bhakkarm Abbottabad, Gilgit and Sust covering Balochistan, Sindh, Punjab, KP, and Gilgit-Baltistan.
It should also include some parts of Azad Kashmir.
It is not true that Balochistan and KP would be deprived of opportunities to be gained under the CPEC.
It is wrong to suggest that the route is avoiding those areas where insurgency has been going on.
Therefore, the CPEC route alignment controversy is baseless and an unfounded reality only meant to delay the project that is going to be inaugurated when the Chinese President visits Pakistan in April.
There is no question of depriving or neglecting backward areas and districts disturbed by terrorism.
Terrorists have been hunted out throughout the country, not just in specific areas or districts.
Not only technological considerations will be taken into account, but distance and economic feasibilities will also be considered by planners, geographers, civil engineers and other experts.
Routes should not be based upon political considerations and propagandas.
n The writer is Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad.
He is an expert on Japan.
Dr Ahmad Rashid Malik
Route alignment controversy
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