Source was already posted
Pakistan needs Rs8trn of GDP to pay off debts: IMF - thenews.com.pk
Pakistan GDP by 2012-13 was 23.3Trillion dollars.By June 2013 it turned to 26-26.3Trillion dollars
Calculation of economic statistics: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics okays change in base year – The Express Tribune
before june 2013,Pak GDP confirmed to be 23.3Trillion dollars by
Calculation of economic statistics: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics okays change in base year – The Express Tribune
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Ok my indian Economist friends
Tell me how Indian GDP increased from 618Billion dollars to 721Billion dollars within 1 year despite that growth rate in the same period was 7%
This is like a 97Billion dollars increase or 15.5% Increase
Tell me how is this possible?
NOTE:source of IMF already provided for this
How many times your govt change the base year.. Last year changed 2012 and suddenly withdrawn after realising your gdp shrunk to 19 bill rupees..
Double-counting: GDP overestimated, may be
slashed by 10%
By Shahbaz Rana
Published: April 29, 2012
Some goods and services were counted twice for
last several years, sources say.
ISLAMABAD:
Pakistan’s economy was reported to stand at
Rs21 trillion this year – except, it may not have
been.
The size of the country’s economy will shrink by
up to Rs2.5 trillion, or roughly 10%, after reports
surfaced that the value of some goods and
services were counted twice in calculation of the
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the last several
years.
The ‘correction’ has major implications, and
places a question mark on authenticity of key
economic indicators.
Major ‘correction’
The ‘double-counting’ surfaced after Pakistan
Bureau of Statistics (PBS) rebased the economy,
shifting the base year for calculations from fiscal
1999-00 to 2005-06.
The rebasing has reduced the size of the
economy, earlier assessed to be Rs21 trillion, to
less than Rs19 trillion, said an official of the
finance ministry.
Last year’s GDP has also shrunk by up to Rs1.5
trillion, the official added.
While a top official of National Accounts called it
a “mistake that has been corrected,” the error has
sent the government’s economic managers back
to the drawing board to rework all economic
indicators not just for the next year, but for the
last seven years at least.
The disclosure may also delay the announcement
of next year’s budget as national accounts figures
are used in the Economic Survey of Pakistan and
the Annual Plan for the next fiscal.
The governing council of the PBS is meeting next
week, chaired by the finance minister, to revisit
the national accounts, according to Secretary
Statistics Sohail Ahmad.
Impact of the error
How does this correction torpedo calculations for
the current and projections for the next fiscal?
The budget deficit for the current fiscal, initially
estimated to be around 6.5% of GDP, will soar to
around 9% after the correction, said an official
from the finance ministry.
Last year’s deficit, calculated to be 6.6%, will
increase to about 7.2, the official said. The debt-
to-GDP ratio for the current fiscal, estimated
close to 60% of GDP, will rise to about 70% after
the rebasing, he added.
Defending the ‘correction’
An official of National Accounts said the
department “will not hide mistakes anymore just
to appease the finance ministry.”
Some of the goods and services were counted
twice, and that has been addressed, he said,
citing the example of water supply which was
listed under two separate heads.
“It is better to accept readjusted size with an
implication of a couple of trillions instead of
letting the GDP artificially increase for many more
years,” he added.
Neither officials from the National Accounts, that
works under the Statistics Division, nor the
finance minister or secretary were available for
comments, despite repeated attempt. Finance
Minister Dr Hafeez Shaikh has already asked the
Statistics Division to place its work for ‘review’ in
front of the governing council of the PBS.
Possible ramifications
The error may invoke penalties from International
Monetary Fund (IMF) since all key economic
indicators – like the debt-to-GDP ratio, the
budget deficit and economic growth – were
reported on an inflated GDP size for at least ten
years.
The country entered into three programmes with
the IMF during that period. Though there is no
official confirmation, Pakistan is also negotiating
a fresh programme with the Fund.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 29th ,