Ayush
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Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is not in control of his country’s ‘Kashmir Policy’ which is decided by Pakistan’s all-powerful Army chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani and the corps commanders, says an internal Indian Army assessment note on the recent flare up along the Line of Control.
The note, shared with key policy makers and agencies, has been accessed by Headlines Today. The note, however, does not give Nawaz Sharif a ‘clean chit’, saying there are no indications that the Pakistan PM has either directed or insisted that his army mend its ways.
The note says even though Gen Kayani has called terrorist organisations within Pakistan — including the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariyat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM), its affiliates and splinter groups operating in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber-Pakhtoonkhwa — Pakistan’s number one national security threat, the Pakistan Army and ISI continue to train, arm, support and launch terrorist groups into India.
In November 2003, Pakistan’s then Army chief General Pervez Musharraf sought the Ramzan ceasefire along the 771.2 km-long LoC so that the Pakistan Army could concentrate on taking on terrorists hostile to Pakistani interests. A decade later, the Pakistan Army’s “half-hearted” war on terror has failed.
These terrorist groups now pose an “existential threat” to Pakistan. “But Pakistan wants to unite hostile elements to fight in Afghanistan, post the US forces draw down in 2014. Pakistan army is also supporting a major terror offensive by hybrid terror groups, like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JEM) into Jammu and Kashmir.
“The entire top leadership of several terrorist organizations in J&K has been wiped out by successful operations of the army and J&K police in the past eight months. These include top district and division commanders of LeT, JeM and HM. The cadre and over ground workers (OGWs) are directionless and are facing a shortage of both weapons and ammunition. Before the 2014 state assembly and General elections, Pak army, ISI, Hafiz Saeed (LeT), Masud Azhar (JeM) and Syed Salahuddin (HM) in Pakistan want terrorist leadership to infiltrate and acquaint themselves with the lay of the land and the terrorist infrastructure. This is an important factor in the sudden spurt in infiltration before winter snow closes down the passes,” says the note. The dramatic rise in ceasefire violations – 210 in 2013 (till October 15) as against 117 in 2012 and 61 in 2011 is being seen in line with this new Pakistan policy.
Of the 771.2 km-long LoC, almost 500 km is fenced. “Terrorists are finding it increasingly difficult to infiltrate. A large number of terrorists are waiting in launch pads in Azad Kashmir and have been creating problems for civilian villagers. Therefore, despite fierce gunbattles and mortars being used along the LoC, terrorists are still being pushed through in the hope that some will succeed in breaking the army cordon and reach villages in J&K,” says the note. The shift in focus along the international border is being seen in the same light – an attempt to push in more infiltrators for a hot summer in 2014.
On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting in New York in September this year, Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, in no uncertain terms, told Nawaz Sharif to ensure peace and tranquillity along the LoC for resumption of dialogue. That has still not happened. The note says it suits Pakistan army to keep the pot simmering on the eastern flank to shift focus from the losing battle it is fighting internally against TTP & TNSM. “Aided by the Pakistan army, terrorists will try another Samba style strike and it will not be limited to J&K but there are indications terrorists could spread their tentacles to even peace stations, especially in adjoining Punjab. There are intercepts to indicate terrorists have been directed to target senior political leadership of J&K,” say sources.
The Army is convinced terrorists cannot stay in launch pads in Azad Kashmir villages close to Pak army locations and operate so close to the LoC without the active support of the Pak Army. An internal jockeying for position within the Pakistan Army – who will the next chief of army staff – and with the civilian leadership are also being seen as reasons why the LoC will remain hot in the near future.
http://idrw.org/?p=28809
