What you say is entirely possible. However HAL has rep of not keeping to schedules. They only produced 6 aircraft in 2006/7 and that won't be close to the schedule of 14 per year to meet the deadline of 2013
So you admit that there could be more, but we both and as you can see most of the media sources also don't know the actual numbers, cause there are mostly speculating (3-5 squads, 55 - 115 produced aircrafts), so let us try to narrow it down a bit!
We know that 50 MKIs was delivered till 2004, but the first so called HAL Mki was also delivered from Russia too as a kind of prototype of the 140 that should be build by HAL under licence. In 2004/05 HAL build 2 aircrafts and after successfully flighttest the licence production starts, this matches to the serials you have posted here:
51 SB101 > First flight Oct 01, 2004.
> Commisioned into IAF 28.Nov.2004
> Ceremonial first flight piloted by P.M.Sergei and Wg Cdr T.R. Ajit Kumar
52 SB102 >
53 SB103 >
You also stated that 2006/07 6 Mki was planed by HAL, btw your source says
Chief manager (indigenisation) of HAL, D.N. Aher, said by 2006-07, HAL plans to roll out six Su-30 MkI aircraft, with raw materials manufactured locally.
, so it's not ONLY 6 were produced and there are delays, but only 6 were planed!
Also the site you refer earlier said for 07/08 10 aircrafts were planed.
To sum it up: 1+2 HAL Mki in 04/05, 4-6 Mki probably in 05/06 (no source yet), 6 in 06/07, 10 in 07/08 = 23 HAL Mki and more than 70 Mki for IAF till early 2008!
Honestly, doesn't this look like a totally normal production line with a normal increase number?
If you concider no increasing for 2008/09 there must be around 80 MKIs ready now, which also would fits to the 2 more squads that should be raised soon.
So far it seems like there are no problems with the production, but we can't say if the production was increased and to what numbers.
The problem with getting spares was about getting spares from countries of the former USSR, that's why IAF is getting many parts locally now and the fact that Irkut already delivered 100 complete kits, should make clear that there are no spare problems. But I agree with you that having 100 kits, doesn't mean that those 100 were already produced like some members said.
Actually if all these aircraft are being rebuilt it begs the question how many are actually operational. After all the first batches need to be replaced/upgraded. The Phase 1 and 2 aircraft need to be upgraded so it's no surprise that additional orders are being made to Irkut they are probably behind schedule.
As I told you before, the first 18 Ks were replaced by new MKIs in 2007, the vayu-sena site you come up with also explains why:
Even though the vanilla Su-30K aircraft were meant to be upgraded to MKI standard the significant differences meant that the only viable option was to replace the aircraft completely. New build MKIs were supplied to replace them to 24 Sqn.
The later 32 were MKIs and were delivered early 2000, so the MLU which is planed for around 2015 is absolutely on time and it should be clear that the new order has nothing to do with it!
Till now all sources said that the new order of 40 MKIs were needed because of the big number of Mig 21 and 27 that are retiring. To keep the squad numbers it was necessary to order them besides the licence production. Again no need to speculate that it has anything to do with delays in the production!
What we can talk about is, if HAL still will build 140, or only 100 under licence, cause I also think that they can build them all before MMRCA production will start.