PAF's Defensive Doctrine---Out of Ignorance---Out of Incompetence Or What?

[aliyusuf]

Yep, you did credited PAF. But you still maintianed your views that the IAF doesn't feel in any way challagened by PAF, it's just that incursion into Pakistan are not on the IAF's agenda at the moment.

I'm of the view that even if incursions into Pakistan are on the IAF's agenda at the moment, IAF would definitely feel challenged by PAF.

The suggestion that IAF is not challagened in any way on PAF's home turf is too big a pill for me to swallow.

To each his own then.

Agreed.

Maybe when we can analyze things for what they are without bringing in our affiliations, emotions and ideologies i.e. truly and objectively analyze things ... we will get the right analysis and reach correct conclusions..

 

[araz]

Apologies, I think I wasn't clear. Let me be specific.

PN currently has +/- 10 frigates. Now instead of increasing this number substantially, an overhaul of the fleet with the Type-21's and OHP class being replaced, with more capable Chinese variants, taking the number upto............? OR overhauling the Type 21's into a completely new platform?

Secondly, increase the number of subs from 8 to ...........? ?

Thirdly, At least 3 dedicated air squadrons of twin engine jets. Having gone through the Sino defence forums thread on JH7B Mastan Sahab has definitely given me a lot to think about.

JH-7/JH-7A/JH-7B Thread | Page 150 | China Defence Forum


I have intentionally left the blanks for you. I would appreciate if you would share your opinion.

Best Regards

Type 21s have reached the end of their working life and cannot be overhauled any more. They had had most of their living lives sucked out of them by the RN when we acquired them and then we sucked out some more and some more and they now have nothing left to give us. They need to be replaced.
PN seems to be going down the route of smaller cheaper and mobile surface platforms adopting a very pragmatic approach.@Rashid Mahmood might want to elaborate it a little more and also on the possible role of 056 OPV in PN.

For those who didn't read this wall of text, here are key points from @MastanKhan

1. The PAF has been a defensive force
2. Americans dangled F-16 as a carrot to Pakistan.
3. F-16 was an overkill for the Afghan war.

I am by no means an expert of defense procurement, policy or strategy.But there are a few glaring FACTUAL INACCURACIES in his post which so many readers here have failed to point out.

1. PAF has been a defensive force-- right and you didn't read anything about the air battles of 65 and 71. Preepmtive strikes on Indian airbases and all were not offensive at all?
2. Americans actually offered the F-20 (tiger something) but the PAF INSISTED on the F-16. And the money for these F-16s were partially covered by the Americans. Read more, dear Sir.
3. Maybe. PAF strategists at the time also had to think about a possible (limited or full scale) Russian invasion. And India has always been there. So F-16 might have been an overkill for the Afghan airforce threat, but certainly not for Russian and Indian threat. This is what happens when you rant about things you don't know--you embarrass yourself.

Read Oscars very detailed and excellent response. He has covered all of these aspects which is why we did not elaborate further

 

[Side-Winder]

No sir. First nuclear response is generated either on confirmation of nuclear strike or at least on confirmation by a reliable source that nuclear tipped missiles have been hurled. In war there are likely to be a lot of objects flying in both sides. India will not just assume they are nuclear. They need confirmation to retain sympathy of playing victim.

How does one get Confirmation? Wait till something erases you off the map? And frankly in the midst of the war, once you see a ballistic missile on the radar, you don't have enough time to wait for confirmation.

Just look at how many times US-Russia reached the edge of a nuclear war during cold war, There are alot of untold stories. The only thing that prevented it was the distance that gives enough time to analyse the situation, Unlike the case for Indo-Pak where you have hardly a few minutes to make a decision, Each and every second will matter. Using a ballistic missile in the midst of war can trigger a false alarm.

And there lies the danger. And then, even if one so called battlefield nuke, Nasr is fired, it would result in an all out nuclear war with devastating consequences as India's nuclear doctrine envisages massive retaliation with all resources at its disposal as a response. There would be no 'ifs' and 'buts'! And Pakistan being one seventh the size of India, the damage would be too severe to comprehend.

And thus, Nasr was a bad idea to begin with! Using it to stop an Indian advance deep into its own territory is even worse! Nuking yourselves isn't the best strategy!

Yes, there lies the danger but NOT as much as in the case of a ballictic aimed deep into indian strategic locations. Nasr won't be used to strike the indian cities. it will be used to take out india's mobile strike groups along the border or Perhaps right on the edge of the border, Since ofcourse PA will use it only if they deem it impossible to stop indian infiltration into our terriority through conventional means. So i don't think it will necessarily lead to an all out nuclear war, PA will make sure before actually using it, that it doesn't panic indians so much as they respond with a agni strike, by choosing appropriate Location, Range and timing etc, Atleast it will force you to think very well before going for all nuclear. it may take you to the peak of confusion even if used at its max range within Indian terriority, Which still PA won't risk. Again, as said in the Bold part.

 

[Abingdonboy]

That is the only place that it cannot cover all the way. To cover the Maharashtra coast line---it will have to move half of its airforce from the land border to this region---and that by default will open up the land route for Pakistani strike force.

Don't worry, this job will be handed over to the IN- the IAF will not have to divert (m)any assets to cover the coastline.

 

[araz]

Hi,

Looking at the map of pakistan and india----india has all its resources covered heavily across the land border. It is willing and ready to sacrifice is bordering states to war and air strikes---because it can absorb the financial damage to these states without blinking an eye.

These bordering states are not the industrial centers of science---technology and mega corporations----. This is all an agriculture belt. The fight on the land border is going to be chest to chest---and as our main cities are close to the border----we will suffer major damage of our infra structure.

We need to fight this war with CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS. We are looking at progress and welbeing in our country and we don't need to end it just like that.

The reason that you only have F16's and the JF 17's is that you strategy has been based on going nuclear in an instant---because basing on the experience of sanctions when you did not have much---that was the only thing that you could fall back on----.

But now things have changed---sanctions are long gone----you are in a much stronger position--financially and military wise-----so---with the changing environment---you need to change the game plan of the war as well---.

The primary target of the Pakistan air force in this war should be states below Gujrat-----. These state have not seen any aggression in their lifetime----. They have not heard the sirens of the incoming raids in the last 60 years----.

Destroy Mumbai as Karachi was destroyed and you will see a change in the stance of your enemy----. Mumbai is the key in this war.

Pakistanis talk about not having funds---have you asked Zardari about that or Dr Asim---or Sharjeel memon or Zardari's sister---how many billions they have hiding in the emirates--how about the MQM stalwarts that are in dallas right now---how many billions did you let them steal.

Lok at the map of india and Pakistani border again---india can cover all its frontline---the only that leaves it belly open is the naval strike route.

That is the only place that it cannot cover all the way. To cover the Maharashtra coast line---it will have to move half of its airforce from the land border to this region---and that by default will open up the land route for Pakistani strike force.

The coastline below Gujrat is its weakest link---it is its open belly---that will make or break the war.

And why cant we do it with a salvo of missiles. If Karachi and Bombay are destroyed do you think there would be any civility left in the forces of the respective sides? It will get low down, deep and dirty, mean and below the belt man!!! All your fighters will not help you on that day the gauntlets will come off and both parties will let loose whatever they have to hand. No my friend this is not how the scene will play out!!! Whether you like it or not the first foray into enemy's territory beyond a platoon or two that can be contained will result in retaliation and once a tit for tat match starts it will be a no holds barred poke the eyes, scratch the face and knee the groins match.
Araz

 

[Abingdonboy]

He is playing for his home popularity as he has so far fallen short of his election campaign rhetoric and promises of taking the Indian economy to the next level.

Well India is the fastest growing economy in the world, so......

 

[syedali73]

And why cant we do it with a salvo of missiles.

Because of cost and limited damage unless nuclear tipped missiles were used.

 

[aliyusuf]

Well India is the fastest growing economy in the world, so......

Projections and real performances will become clear when the current fiscal year ends. However you get many sources saying that India is poised at unprecedented economic growth and may over take China as the fastest growing economy.

But are the figures all these sources are quoting real or massaged to hide the true performance of the current administration?

Is India's growth exaggerated? - BBC News

I leave it open to interpretation.
I see it one way others may see it another way.

 

[Thunder.Storm]

You should adjust the TWR for the thrust and load-out presented accordingly. The 84.6KN figure for is not up to date. This figure is somewhere near 86.3KN i.e. ~8800 KGF i.e. 19400 lbf.

Also EuroFighter has 2 EJ200 engines at 90KN each i.e. total of 180KN.

You are right my mistake. When I was preparing that file it was last night 3:50 am my mind was a little blurry I didn't think much about it by the way thanks for correction.

 

[niaz]

Sir, I assume you're refering to missiles with conventional payload but how about india comprehending it as a "pre-emptive" nuclear strike? Afterall once you see missiles coming at you. You don't have enough time to think, What if they launch Nukes in response?

Agreed.

Let us be realistic; were India to launch a surprize combined arms ‘ Blitzkrieg’ type attack with a couple of corps ( about 80,000 men & 500 tanks) strength on the Rajasthan border; before Pak Forces are put on war footing; Pakistan could be cut in two at the Punjab-Sind border line.

Air force would be the first in battle but our entire F-16 fleet of 76 would be facing 150 MK-1s and 100 Mirage 2000H, hence little chance of stopping the juggernaut. Only way of blunting such as assault is through disrupting their supply lines with conventional warhead missiles and destroying enemy massed formations with tactical nuclear weapons. Undoubtedly Indian could think that all missiles are carrying nuclear weapons.

A bye product of PAF not having deep a large number of penetration aircrafts (say of about 1000 km lo-lo range) is that nuclear threshold would be crossed as soon as there is threat of a major Indian break through. Given the quantitative as well as qualitative edge of the Indian armed forces; there is no other realistic option available to Pakistan to avoid disaster. End result could be mutually assured destruction but this makes Cold Start doctrine useless.

In my humble opinion, it is precisely this apprehension that stopped India from carrying out an airstrike against Muridke Jamaat Dawa centre after the Mumbai incident.

 

[Basel]

Many also fail to understand that neither Pakistan is China nor her needs are as large as those of China. As of now PAF has no deep strike fighter/bomber let alone a dedicated aircraft that will assist Navy in case of a conflict. JH-7B fits the bill. Under no circumstances do I see JF-17, being a light multirole fighter, to carry out the job of a dedicated JH-7B. I will prefer JH-7B equipped with long range ASMs over a frigate anytime. Yes, we must invest in sub-surface fleet, hence priority at this point of time goes to stronger and dedicated naval air arm and sub-surface fleet.

You are continuously advocating for JH-7B but do you know why Navy & PAF don't want it?? can you provide money and resources that would be required to send those jets in war time ops?? JH-7B can't hold against IN & IAF alone to send those they will need escort, Mid Air Refueling, AWACS, MPAs etc support and it will eat resources and money. In war country like Pakistan who is fighting a much larger and Advance military of India will need every bullet to be counted and properly used.

There is a reason why PAF & PN wanted JF-17 for maritime strike role because it can handle treats better although it can not carry as much as JH-7B but it will not make logistical nightmare to a country which is economically weak now and it has enough capability to protect our EEZ for now.

PN wanted a jet in class of J-11/Su-35 because it can perform variety of roles while they will not need escort and mid air refueling as they have better range, weapons load and powerful radar. But due to economic situation they had to settle on JF-17 which is reasonable option.

 

[Indus Falcon]

Because of cost and limited damage unless nuclear tipped missiles were used.

There is another issue with Ballistic Missiles. On the enemies radar, it just shows up as a Ballistic Missile, it doesn't tell them what warhead it's carrying. This can have catastrophic repercussions.

 

[Last Samuri]

PAFs Defensive Doctrine out of Ignorance or incompetence

Due respect what the hell are PAF top brass suppose to build with a defense budget that is barely one FIFTH the size of india or Saudi Arabia or South Koreas or Japans or Germanys or France or UK or any one of the 50 nations in this world that spend more than Pakistan each year.


You don't have the resources to build a air force of true offensive capability.

Ever since independence you have ducked dived begged borrowed and stolen what you can to build a large yet mostly outdated air force.

PAF is neither ignorant or incompetent and I admire their resourcefulness to have built a professional large air power that is given peanuts to spend each year yet maintain a very usefulness deterrence against the 4th largest air force in the world with a budget outstripping their own by a factor of 6-1.

Based on financial might this should be NO CONTEST

But thanks to chinease assistance & USA grant aided hardware and clever use of obsolete fighters from global nations like Austrilia Libya and recently Jordan you are doing all you can.

IF YOU WANT SU35 OR J11 or indeed J31 in a decades time you really will have to eat eat grass first.

 

[araz]

Because of cost and limited damage unless nuclear tipped missiles were used.

This is what I have been saying. You wont wait for an invitation to launch a nuke tipped missile. There is no trust between the two countries so how does one determine that a missile coming your way is not nuclear tipped. This is the exact fear which keeps the two countries away from each others throats.
You wont be able to get an aicraft into Indian air space because of the layered defence. You fly 2 squadrons in you would be lucky if 3-5 come back. This is not the 60s anymore.
Araz

Agreed.

Let us be realistic; were India to launch a surprize combined arms ‘ Blitzkrieg’ type attack with a couple of corps ( about 80,000 men & 500 tanks) strength on the Rajasthan border; before Pak Forces are put on war footing; Pakistan could be cut in two at the Punjab-Sind border line.

Air force would be the first in battle but our entire F-16 fleet of 76 would be facing 150 MK-1s and 100 Mirage 2000H, hence little chance of stopping the juggernaut. Only way of blunting such as assault is through disrupting their supply lines with conventional warhead missiles and destroying enemy massed formations with tactical nuclear weapons. Undoubtedly Indian could think that all missiles are carrying nuclear weapons.

A bye product of PAF not having deep a large number of penetration aircrafts (say of about 1000 km lo-lo range) is that nuclear threshold would be crossed as soon as there is threat of a major Indian break through. Given the quantitative as well as qualitative edge of the Indian armed forces; there is no other realistic option available to Pakistan to avoid disaster. End result could be mutually assured destruction but this makes Cold Start doctrine useless.

In my humble opinion, it is precisely this apprehension that stopped India from carrying out an airstrike against Muridke Jamaat Dawa centre after the Mumbai incident.

Niaz bhai.
I learnt from a very dear friend who retired as a lft. Col in the infantry. He told me that to mobilize the sort of forces you are projecting would take IA something like 60-80 days. PA for reasons he did not elaborate mobilizes a lot quicker. I think it has to do with shorter travelling distance as Pakistan is a much smaller country. I just thought I would add this piece of info into the equation.
I am by no means implying that IA will not eventually overcome the resistance but pointing to the fact that the losses on the advancing parties may not be sustainabe even for IA and certainly not for PA.
My 2 paisas worth.

 

[Mutakalim]

This is what I have been saying. You wont wait for an invitation to launch a nuke tipped missile. There is no trust between the two countries so how does one determine that a missile coming your way is not nuclear tipped. This is the exact fear which keeps the two countries away from each others throats.
You wont be able to get an aicraft into Indian air space because of the layered defence. You fly 2 squadrons in you would be lucky if 3-5 come back. This is not the 60s anymore.
Araz

Are conventional warheads aboard the missiles have enough destructive firepower to replace bombers as they have limited payload?