So as a fix - My thoughts on non-traditional options (things not relating to a bigger air-force, nuclear missiles, etc) to improve and update Pakistan's defense capabilities and posture.
Pakistan can't match India pound for pound, but it doesn't have to. What Pakistan needs is to make India hurt enough that war would be catastrophic for both sides - ultimately this is achieved through both sides nuclear arsenals, but on conventional terms Pakistan has options too. Let's explore them:
1. Spread critical infrastructure and C4I capabilities over a wide geographic area to prevent a "decapitation strike" from severing the entire command structure instantaneously. Perhaps utilize deep or hardened command structures:
2. Invest greater numbers in mobile counter-air and counter-missile defenses. HQ-9 provides both capabilities in a single platform, but like S-300 it's reported to be less suited for counter-missile duties.
HQ-9 is also resistant to electronic injections and attacks, and with India building up its electronic warfare capabilities, this is a plus for Pakistan.
3. Speaking of electronic warfare, cyber defenses can be used for offensive and defense purposes too. No only do strong cyber defense protect one's own info, but they can be used to gather intel on a enemy nation - as the US, Russia and China have found out, there aren't any air-tight systems. Invest in cyber warfare to negatively effect Indian battle-planning, intercept their communications, steal sensitive info and if necessary affect civilian infrastructure too:
Few of the world's power grids are capable of withstanding a military-strength cyber attack.
4. For naval defense Pakistan needs to invest greater assets in counter-submarine warfare - what better way to keep Indian ships honest then by investing in your own submarines?
Considering Pakistan is most concerned with the regional waters around its shores, nuclear submarines don't make too much sense, but SSKs do. Already Pakistan is addressing this concern via the acquisition of several S20 submarines, but a few more - 4 perhaps, would improve Pakistan's operational capabilities by allowing for more ships to be at sea at any one time.
India's counter submarine capabilities are good, but they aren't perfect.
Negotiate with China for 2-3 Y-8Q - they would be Pakistan's P-8I.
5. Forget about ICBMs:
Should we opt for the ICBM?
Invest in SLVs (Space Launch Vehicle). Not only does this open up space communications to Pakistan, but it also opens up intelligence gathering capabilities.
Does Pakistan know where India's naval assets are all the time? How about their command structures? Their mobile AA missiles? Tank formations? No it doesn't, but investing in space intel capabilities open this avenue up for Pakistan and allows Pakistan to monitor Indian military movement, communications and infrastructure .
*if anything nuclear deterrence actually increases the potential for conflict, just not directly. Instead, via the Stability-Instability Paradox, the potential for proxy conflict goes up:
The stability–instability paradox is an international relations theory regarding the effect of nuclear weapons and mutually assured destruction. It states that when two countries each have nuclear weapons, the probability of a direct war between them greatly decreases, but the probability of minor or indirect conflicts between them increases. This occurs because rational actors want to avoid nuclear wars, and thus they neither start major conflicts nor allow minor conflicts to escalate into major conflicts—thus making it safe to engage in minor conflicts. For instance, during the Cold War the United States and the Soviet Union never engaged each other in warfare, but fought proxy wars in Korea,Vietnam, Angola, the Middle East, Nicaragua and Afghanistan and spent substantial amounts of money and manpower on gaining relative influence over the third world.
Stability–instability paradox
6. India is stepping up its own space capabilities and Pakistan needs a counter. Even if you can't destroy them via ASAT or electronic warfare, you can still negatively affect them using some ground-based methods. One such method is "blinding lasers" to interfere with electro-optical satellites or damage critical electronics on remote sensing satellites.
This is a satellite spotting laser. Larger, more powerful lasers can damage satellites.
7. Cost is going to be a problem for any large military facing a large foe that is gaining in sophistication. One recourse is to opt for unmanned areal and naval assets. Pakistan already has its Burraq drone for counter-land duties, and perhaps a sea-surveillance/counter-shipping version can be worked out too, but Pakistan - facing an increasing submarine threat from India, can offset the cost of improving its own submarine capability (should that be too costly) by opting for UUVs to patrol and monitor Pakistani waters.
Suicide UUVs can be used as cost-effective anti-submarine weapons should they detect a target.
These are easily deploy-able from existing ships and are a cost effective solution.
8. I know, I know, "how's Pakistan going to pay for it?"
- that wasn't really the point of this post. These are real world options, but a hypothetical set of impact recommendations that would make a difference.
- But that doesn't mean Pakistan is left stranded either. It has options.
Pakistan's defense doctrine right now is predicated on maintaining a nuclear deterrence to deter Indian aggression or retaliatory action. Keep this! Maintain a minimum credible deterrence, and once the economy improves, shift military spending into high gear. It takes work, the world is ill right now, but Pakistan is making progress. Reforms such as revising the tax code and tax enforcement must be mandated. Reform helps an economy grow and be more resilient to future shocks.
CPEC and China provide Pakistan with an important life-line.
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These are my thoughts on defense options. I understand they might not all be feasible or affordable, they aren't for most nations, but these option can provide Pakistan with an updated deterrence that brings it into the 21st century and positions Pakistan for future success.
Space, cyber warfare, sub-surface warfare, drones, these are option Pakistan can't afford not to invest in!
@Armstrong @Oscar @MastanKhan @Gufi @Indus Falcon - thoughts? Counter proposals?
