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PAF & the ramifications of Rafale's sale to India

After the Rafale induction, whether Indians like it or not (talking about Pakistan) the J-10 will get sucked in to India's consternation. Because, more than Pakistan, its China, which wants to see level playing field in any future Indo-Pak dogfight.
 
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@Manticore

Dear Sir

A modern air force has to buy many capital intensive items and equipment

Fighter planes are just ONE component of an air force Although the most "spectacular " component

The other things are also important
such as Helicopters ; AWACS ; Transporters ; Refuellers ; UAVs
Electronic warfare equipment and pods ;
Reconaissance planes (ISR planes ) ;
Other pods --Reconaissance and Targetting pods
Ground based Radars; C4ISR equipment
SAMs ; A to A and A to G Munitions

Then there is the whole Department of SPARES which are also imported

All items have to be looked at depending on the Obsolence and criticality of the need

For example what we recently learnt is that PAF is buying attack helicopters and Targetting pods

The Budget has to be spread out accordingly

Zarb E Azb has increased the expenditure on Fuel and A to G Munitions significantly

Everything comes down to the budget
 
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I do not see the Russians selling the SU-35 due to strategic relations with India, right now with oil price and sanctions they can't piss us off because we will overtake Japan soon to be 3rd biggest oil consumer.
 
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Thankyou guys for the mature posts.

If there are some other points that you like to discuss please let me know and I will add them in post1. Subsystems avionics / ammunitions point added.
 
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Firstly Rafale development hasn't happened overnight, it's been in the news for over four years and no immediate conclusion seems in sight. Contrary to the claims, no agreements are in place.
Say even if a deal goes ahead in a few months time, you are still looking at several years before a Rafale squadron becomes operational with the IAF.....so far it's a great plane on paper without any actual combat to it's credit.
The Rafale is not a worry for PAF as it has it's own contingency plans in place for the next five years.
Here's a little hint, Israel is not scrambling for any measures while Egypt Air force has ALREADY inducted the Rafale. !!!
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Contrary to speculation that India and France have reached an agreement for the direct purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets, official sources said talks on pricing had reached a critical phase and were expected to be completed in a few months.

Sources said the differences over pricing had narrowed down considerably, and the talks were in the final phase.

While the French offer was about €11 billion, India said it would not go beyond €8 billion. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has clarified on various occasions that there will be no compromise on the price.

A senior diplomat refused to give a timeline for concluding the deal but expressed the hope that it would be done by June.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...with-tough-talk-on-pricing/article8483802.ece
 
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I have few answers and few suggestions..........



Pakistan top priority is replace legacy aircrafts with Jf17 and F16s while keeping a few squadron of Top quality aircraft as sharp edge. We are operating couple of SAM systems and searching for more from Russia and South Africa. So clearly by time Rafale arrive they have to face new level of threat from Pakistan in the form of Medium/long range and High altitude SAM systems.

For sea Daniel we are working fine. We cannot beat Indian navy but sure we can gather enough power to defend our Sea shore and avoid naval blockage.
1: Subs with AIP. Got five, working for 8 more to add/replace the existing fleet.
2: Surface vessels, particularly Missile Boasts have important role to play against Surface vessels of Indian army.
3: Air force squadron armed with anti ship missile. Recently we replaced F7P with Jf17 in 2nd squadron. Armed with BVR and C802 antiship missiles, this squadron provide capable punch against IN Mig29 as well as surface vessels. In future we can replace Mirages (Exocet missile) with Jf17 and introduce CM400 AKG for enhanced anti ship role.
4: In the form of ''Azaab Missile'' we are working/deploying on dedicated Coastal defense as last line to defense to avoid any blockage.

(Below Jf7 with C802 & CM400 AKG)
View attachment 300785



Yes why not. Work on IFR probe installation is going on, AESA will arive in Blk 3. Enhanced use of Composite in air frame is expensive but offer More strength, lower radar signature and light weigh increasing the performance of aircraft. Better version of RD93 with more thrust along with composite use in frame can increase T/W ratio with prominent margins.



These are the best options available. Produce and improve Jf17 and induct Second hand F16s along with New ones if possible. Second hand F16 with MLU is fast and effective way of replacing old air craft with capable platform.
One thing is worth considering that we need appropriate upgrade for our both Jf17 and F16. Our Jf17 need better targeting pod, I do wish for Asalpod as it offer us Stand off and precise strike capabilities at appropriate cost and in a effective way. More over there is need of Installing IFR probe ASAP, as we need to free two hard points from Drop tanks inorder to carry more air to ground munitions. I don't know ECM capabilities of Jf17, but we need to keep an eye on international market and if necessary integrate ECM pod on external hard point depending upon mission requirement.
AselPod
View attachment 300803 View attachment 300804
F16 lack two important attributes. They need High Bore Offsight Missile (HBOS : AIM9X) from USA for better WVR air to air engagements. Also they lack Infra Red Search and Track ability. Something which IAF Mig29, Su30 have and Rafale will have. We cannot integrate IRST in airr frame now, but do carry it in the from of pod at external hard point. Tiger Eye system allow you to carry both Targeting pod and IRST pod at same hard point! Some thing we should try to get from USA.

View attachment 300801



We already have and we will have some capable SAM systems in near future. We are looking in markets from China, Italy, Russia, Turkey and South Africa for required modern SAM systems. As per rumor, Hq9 already exist in our arsenal but if it is not, then it is worth considering that we can follow Hq9 from China when ever we want.

As per 4++ Generation air craft, we do need one with long range and heavy payload. Discussion regarding Su35S is on its way with Russia (initial stages). But it may or may not happen. Two squadron of Su35S will be a big boast in our capabilities of deep strike. Moreover inducttion of Su35 will open doors for more Russian tech like weapon stations for PAF.
View attachment 300805



You wait, and you are dead. Its requirement of now and we cannot take ''risk'' of waiting as war never come with warning. We should pursue 4++ Platform (Su35) before even thinking about J31. J31 is long way to go and I seriously doubt that it will be able to qualify as 5th Generation aircraft. India progress in FGFA will decide how early we need a stealth platform in our airforce. Until then, focus on what we have and what we can have in near future with out waiting taking risk for waiting what is in distinct future.



Indians can answer better (senior members of course) :-)



Pakistan is increasing its budget and spending in Defense. General Raheel is conducting meeting with Ishaq Dar time to time for major increment in defense budget as we are lagging behind in many key areas which are needed to be filled as soon as possible. So hope for bit economic support for PAF too.
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And yes replacement of 190 aircraft is achievable or atleast close to it. Do consider the fact that among those 190 aircraft 16 are already replaced when F7P of Minhas Squadron was replaced with Jf17. F7PG and Mirage Rose will be replaced after 2019 by Block III. So right now as we speak, there are roughly 150 aircraft awaiting replacement by end of 2019.

We are increasing production rate of Jf17 to 24 per aircraft per year and by 2019 we will add another 125 (approximate). If we add two more squadrons of F16 (New/surplus) to achieve target of 110 F16 aircrafts then we can successfully replace huge bunch of legacy fighters. Even without any 4++ Generation aircraft, PAF will become very capable force.



Say NO to J10 or J10b/c.
That aircraft offer little edge over Jf17 and after replacing legacy fighters we can upgrade our Thunder fleet with modern western avionics by which Jf17 can SURPASS J10 in most fields. So no need for J10 as long as Jf17 production and upgradation is going on in smooth and balanced way.
Do note that J10 will be deployed in PAF only in case of Conflict with India as a short time ability boasters. Just like we saw in case of F5 back in 1971. In normal conditions, this aircraft is now highly unlikely to find its way into PAF.



If France and India finalize deal of 36 Rafales then say bye bye to any French sub system in Future for PAF. Although doors for Subsystems from China, South Africa, Turkey, Brazil, Italy, Sweden and Spain will remain open. Its not dead end for PAF.




Rafales offer many new things to Indian Air force which even Mig29K and Su30MKI don't or can't.

1: AESA radar.
2: Very low RCS
3: A wide array of French avionics and weapon package for existing IAF fighters
4: Very Long range with 3 drop tanks
5: Multiwarhead BVR capability
6: Advance ECM capabilities.

Those 36 Rafales if used properly can become bigger threat than 220 Su30MKI. It is an aircraft slightly bigger than M2K but payload equal to that of Su30 MKI.

View attachment 300784



In case of war, Air crafts are sitting ducks when they are on ground. As enemy always try to hit your air bases and forward operating bases. Short loiter time (IFR absence) mean that aircraft have to land again and again when ever its tanks dry from fuel. With Higher loiter time ( IFR ability) aircraft can remain in air for long time with weapon stations and stay on ''stand by'' for mission instructions, can tarvel more distance and deliver more punch (IFR & CFT free hard points for carrying more weapons/pods instead of drop tanks). So in war, Loiter time is key role as it also reduces the time of reaction against any aggression.



Answers to what? Indian Air force and Navy? Of course yes.
With bigger ships (Destroyers) you can carry advance long range anti air- anti ship and anti sub systems in Sea away from main land and act as first line of defense with AWACS, Anti Ship Jets and Anti Submarine helicopter can carry out required surveillance.Destroyers can be protected by Light frigates and Sub take role of first offense and can filter any threat coming towards your surface vessel fleet.
Long range-High altitude SAM systems provide you more and better cover from Aerial threats, from jets to cruise missiles and you can move your Sea assets in sea as well as Armored divisions on land under their cover, ruling out any threat of Air force. Presence of Mobile Medium Range SAM systems in armored division can provide you protection from enemy air force even at stand off distance.
Cruise missile are meant to hit those targets which are out of scope of your air force, Pakistan has Land based Cruise missile system (Babur) , working on integration of aerial cruise missiles (RAAD) have Shore based anti ship cruise missile and developing Sub based (nuclear role) as well as ship based (anti ship) cruise missile.
So answers are always here , all it need bit more focus, better policies and ofcourse funds to carry out whole this plan and keep power balance in South Asia. :-)

@Manticore @MastanKhan @WAJsal @Quwa @Bilal Khan 777 @HRK @Irfan Baloch
@Windjammer
What an explained answer that was Thanks @Tipu7
 
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http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/rafale/

My discussion point will be based on Rafale capacity ,Options available both Thunder and Abroad (Realistic ones) ,Strategic Aims for this procurement as well as PAF strategy can be or supposed to be .

1. Rafale can carry payloads of more than 9t on 14 hardpoints for the air force version, with 13 for the naval .
2. The range of weapons includes: Mica, Magic, Sidewinder, ASRAAM and AMRAAM air-to-air missiles; Apache, AS30L, ALARM, HARM, Maverick and PGM100 air-to-ground missiles and Exocet / AM39, Penguin 3 and Harpoon anti-ship missiles.
3. For a strategic mission the Rafale can deliver the MBDA (formerly Aerospatiale) ASMP stand-off nuclear missile.
4. MBDA Meteor BVRAAM beyond visual range air-to-air missile was conducted on a Rafale fighter. Exocet, Scalp-EG, Mica, ASMP-A (to replace the ASMP) and Meteor missiles.
5.the Rafale carried out the first firing of the Sagem AASM precision-guided bomb, which has both GPS / inertial guidance and, optionally, imaging infrared terminal guidance. Rafale have been equipped with the AASM from 2008. Rafale can carry six AASM missiles.


Analysis
All Round Performer (Pretty much covers all areas) But specialized in Ground attack (Nuke, Conventional inventory is superb) but still able to take on BVR challenges .So Rafale will be incorporated with Mirages likely as well as SU 30 will escort them for IN if inducted it will accompany Migs/Naval LCA

Countermeasure and sensor technology on the twin-jet combat aircraft
1. Rafale's electronic warfare system is the Spectra from Thales. Spectra incorporates solid state transmitter technology, a DAL laser warning receiver, missile warning, detection systems and jammers.
2. RBE2 passive electronically scanned radar developed by Thales
3. Thales developed an active electronically scanned version of the RBE2 which equipped the Rafale in February 2011
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4. Optronic systems include the Thales / SAGEM OSF infrared search and track system,

Analysis
Spectra system is state of the art which provided defensive as well as offensive capabilities .Rest IRST is already with SU 30 no new capacity wise addition ,Passive Electronically system is quite advance but still lags a step behind AESA since AESA system are already incorporated it will be a new tech incorporated . This area looks also strong pretty much decent specs. I will not go in to engines but loiter time is good pretty much Indians already have this capability thru SU30

Summary
Pro`s and Con`s
Possible AESA integration /Spectra System is quite a good architecture and will be best in IAF inventory .Can fire AMRAAM`s subject to US approval but IAF will stick to MICA my guess (They dont trust US) .Stand off weapons are already in IAF inventory infact IAF already has superior stand off weapons ,future room for improvement very good 90% around as per French Air force data keeping IAF it will be still above 75% means at least 27 jets will be available every time from a starting order . Addition of new aircraft means more pressure on Maintenance ,staff and supply chain and we all knew how good is Indian procurement let's not discuss these .

What is Offer in Market ?
1.SU 35 (may be)
2.Euro Fighter
3. Chinese J10
4. JF17
For New Capabilities IAF acquired we need to see which platform offers more against these .For Aesa (N011pulse-Doppler radar in SU35 standard configuration / Euro Fighter AESA still in progress stage otherwise Captor Radar pulse doplar model designed from Harrier .J10 The radar has a mechanically scanned planar array antenna but J10 C promises to have CHinese AESA .so this is well balanced with all the options available . Each Fighter offers AESA in short time . JF17 block 3 is programmed to get AESA possibly there are many options thru open market .

Rafale employs great survivability packages and frankly i am not advocating for SAM as this mind set is too defensive in approach what we need is a pure Air Superiority fighter lets look on these options again
1. Euro Fighter excellent Air 2 Air Mode (But needed 1 to 1 against Rafale since of similar capabilities)
2. SU35 big daddy can do trick but has to be Westernized thru avionics since SU30 MKI is also there
3. F16 V (Man this could be the most cheapest of all options but Uncle Sam is not giving us)
4. F17 (Block 3 HOBS,IRST ,AESA must) but little boy needs support of some big brother
5. J10C (Yes i know we discussed these to death but might be a rational choice at the end of day how JF17 AESA and J10 C AESA can be shared similarly J10 C offers more loiter time and better 4.5 ++ features .

Cost wise Eurofighter very expensive ,SU35 good option if Russia and we agreed , F16 Alas have to go to another Afghan war to get F16V ,F17 too much happening and it needs to mature up (Like the idea of quickening the production)
J10 C in development stage but can offer similar Electronics as in club with F17 .but then logic comes to mind why we need J10 C bcas J10 C is a delta wing configuration coupled with AESA and more hard points + loiter time ,So tactics will be new and it can surprize most .

http://quwa.org/2016/04/11/ideas-jf-17-block-iiis-helmet-mounted-display-sight-system/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-35
http://eurofighter.airpower.at/sensorik-captor.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-10
 
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Firstly Rafale development hasn't happened overnight, it's been in the news for over four years and no immediate conclusion seems in sight. Contrary to the claims, no agreements are in place.
Say even if a deal goes ahead in a few months time, you are still looking at several years before a Rafale squadron becomes operational with the IAF.....so far it's a great plane on paper without any actual combat to it's credit.
The Rafale is not a worry for PAF as it has it's own contingency plans in place for the next five years.
Here's a little hint, Israel is not scrambling for any measures while Egypt Air force has ALREADY inducted the Rafale. !!!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Contrary to speculation that India and France have reached an agreement for the direct purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets, official sources said talks on pricing had reached a critical phase and were expected to be completed in a few months.

Sources said the differences over pricing had narrowed down considerably, and the talks were in the final phase.

While the French offer was about €11 billion, India said it would not go beyond €8 billion. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has clarified on various occasions that there will be no compromise on the price.

A senior diplomat refused to give a timeline for concluding the deal but expressed the hope that it would be done by June.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...with-tough-talk-on-pricing/article8483802.ece
Israel is not worried about Egyptian rafales because the have f15-i's and the f35 which a pair will be delivered by the end of this year. both of these aircraft are either on poar or more advanced than the rafale. yes it would take them about 5 years for them to be operational but what is pakistan going to do to counter the rafale. yes the rafale talks are in final stages and nothing has been signed but since they are talking about it the deal is over the horizon and coming in fast. what is pakistan going to do about it?
 
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I think PAF is not willing to induct another American platform due to the fear of sanctions which leaves Eurofighter Typhoon as the only option to counter Rafale but Typhoon is expensive and it is a joint venture of four countries and one of them is Germany so it can be troublesome. If we ever bought Su-35 then it would be for the navy not for the air force. If PAF wants to induct another American platform then clearly F/A-18E/F Super Hornet is not good enough but F-15 is, but unlike F/A-18E/F Super Hornet F-15 is expensive as well. J-31 is under development and J-10 is not better than F-16 . So what do you gentlemen think ?
@Horus @WebMaster @Manticore @The Eagle @Quwa @Windjammer @Zarvan @C130 @ACE OF THE AIR @That Guy @somebozo @Irfan Baloch @HRK @Paksanity

Pakistan should give up the ambition of matching Indiain Air Superiority. Instead should focus on buying an advance SAM system either S-300VM or S-300PMU2 for long range, and also medium range ATGM either the S-350 or Buk-M2 6 and finally short range in the Pantsir-S1

building an advance multi layer air defense would be more of threat to India than a few dozen F-15,Su-35, and J-31.
 
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Israel is not worried about Egyptian rafales because the have f15-i's and the f35 which a pair will be delivered by the end of this year. both of these aircraft are either on poar or more advanced than the rafale. yes it would take them about 5 years for them to be operational but what is pakistan going to do to counter the rafale. yes the rafale talks are in final stages and nothing has been signed but since they are talking about it the deal is over the horizon and coming in fast. what is pakistan going to do about it?
As i said PAF HAS it's contingency plan and countermeasures in place......five years is a long time for developments to take place and then what's the guarantee that all will come to a head in five years.
 
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Su35 is best option as I know if Russians give you, if you have money Russians don't refuse you, also India may not say as Russia will get money.
But saying Saudis will finance your defence budget to match India, I doubt, they can give some money to fight terror or during time but at this time I don't think so.
Try India have inducted Raafales so we should at least induct some Su35 please give us some money.
Let's say take loan? I haven't heard Saudis are giving you any loan for development & for defence purchases you know, also think about people, as loan are burden already.

Yes, first thing is to replace Mig27 fleet but Mig29 also need replacement, only 36 Rafales can't replace all of them if we assume Mig21 will be replaced by Tejas.

If any aircraft can't match Su30 or Rafalein quality that doesn't mean you should induct it.


I didn't know that, why don't you try?
India cried on the sale of just 8 F 16 to PAF. Keeping in view IAF using 300+ SU 30 , india will never ever let the SU 35 deal happen. india is using a lot of Russian military hardware . Pakistan can only buy Russian choppers and that low tech equipment which does not threaten India. Second, I am not talking about about quality pf aircrafts. I am talking about their roles. both JF 17 and Gripen are Light combat aircraft . so why need to waste money on same platform. rather, we should evolve jf 17.same goes to J 10 bcoz both F 16 and J10 are medium multirole ac . Now, PAF needs a twin engine multirole 4 +++ gen aircraft for naval and deep strike role. Third, Saudis are vary willing to sign a defence pact with Pakistan. Pakistan needs to distance itself from Iran bcoz we can gain nothing from Iranians.
 
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i think maintaining 5th gen aircraft is expensive in buying and maintainence. That may be the reason INDIAN have reduce the FGFA order and went ahead with Rafael's.
i think PAF can buy small quantity of J31/J20 but they seriously need to induct any 4++ Gen aircraft in decent qty.
That is the reason Mastan Khan is of the view that PAF need heavy/medium 4 ++ gen aircraft to compliment 5th gen.
 
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Pakistan should give up the ambition of matching Indiain Air Superiority. Instead should focus on buying an advance SAM system either S-300VM or S-300PMU2 for long range, and also medium range ATGM either the S-350 or Buk-M2 6 and finally short range in the Pantsir-S1

building an advance multi layer air defense would be more of threat to India than a few dozen F-15,Su-35, and J-31.
We already posses HQ-9 which is superior to S-300 as it incorporates the technology of both MIM-104 Patriot and S-300.
 
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(1) First of all look inward and reconsider your priorities wrt your economy. JV with a friendly country like China and Turkey can upgrade the prospects of buying a platform above our economical condition.
(2) Rather than being Rafale specific dish out your own needs and go for long term planning as per doctrine. Revise the doctrine and war plans accordingly.
(3) Come out of concept of "Gap Filler" and get firm hand on a platform and that too in good numbers.
(4) Time for experimentation and luck factor is gone. Go for a proven or atleast an old platform which has seen series of upgrades as it will make sure that most of its design flaws (if any) have been rectified.But do not go for any platform whose supply lines are closing shortly.
(5) Go only for a platform which is free of IFs and BUTs and carry not much of strings attached.
(6) While Thunder is a very good replacement of aging Mirages and F-7s we have to bring in upgrades faster esp increasing its hard points (F-16s can be followed as guide line in this regard).
(7) Dont make PAF as comprising just Multirole platforms but go for dedicated bombers and ground attack platforms too.
(8) Give some prefrence to PN too and also a potent aerial cover in regards to a long range platform.
(9) All this would not be accomplished in a day or two so start planning/preparing right from now.
 
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