Options for PAF After India Selects Rafale for MMRCA

[Pfpilot]

People tend to overreact to big headline news. Is the Rafale a superb aircraft? Ofcourse. But is it going to significantly skew the relative balance further against the PAF? I doubt it. That isn't necessarily a good thing, since the current standing of PAF relative to IAF is nothing to feel safe about. Were the Indians to declare war today, we have little in the way of assets to prevent IAF superiority. Compared to a depleted f-16 force (due to ongoing MLUs) and jf-17s induction (in relation to training and tactics) still in its infancy, we stand no real chance against the current IAF force of Mirage 2000s, Su-30mkis, and Mig-29s.
Pakistan's goal maybe to fight any future wars on the defensive, but our history has shown otherwise, ambitious leaders have sacrificed many Pakistani lives in wars that we started. Even if we are to assume a defensive stance, we lack not only quantity, but also quality...similarly, in times of peace, we have a huge crisis in terms of all basic utilities...were a war to break out, how are we going to fuel these massive forces? Pakistan also has very little depth, east to west; in short, being on the defensive provides us with very little of the advantages that are usually built into such scenarios.
If the idea is to fight India, then the result today is the same as it was 10 years ago and will remain the same going forward: we have no chance of a positive result. Maybe the "headline" nature of this news may force the relevant people to realize this and back us out of our aggressive stance towards India gracefully.

 

[VCheng]

People tend to overreact to big headline news. Is the Rafale a superb aircraft? Ofcourse. But is it going to significantly skew the relative balance further against the PAF? I doubt it. That isn't necessarily a good thing, since the current standing of PAF relative to IAF is nothing to feel safe about. Were the Indians to declare war today, we have little in the way of assets to prevent IAF superiority. Compared to a depleted f-16 force (due to ongoing MLUs) and jf-17s induction (in relation to training and tactics) still in its infancy, we stand no real chance against the current IAF force of Mirage 2000s, Su-30mkis, and Mig-29s.
Pakistan's goal maybe to fight any future wars on the defensive, but our history has shown otherwise, ambitious leaders have sacrificed many Pakistani lives in wars that we started. Even if we are to assume a defensive stance, we lack not only quantity, but also quality...similarly, in times of peace, we have a huge crisis in terms of all basic utilities...were a war to break out, how are we going to fuel these massive forces? Pakistan also has very little depth, east to west; in short, being on the defensive provides us with very little of the advantages that are usually built into such scenarios.
If the idea is to fight India, then the result today is the same as it was 10 years and will remain the same going forward: we have no chance of a positive result. Maybe the "headline" nature of this news may force the relevant people to realize this and back us out of our aggressive stance towards India gracefully.

That is quite a sobering assessment that should be heeded.

 

[Edevelop]

India has got many different types of aircrafts now: Su-30, Rafale, Mirage 2k, Mig-29, LCA...
All these have slight differences, i mean it may be that one has more hard points than the other, better weapon carrying, better radar, better turn rate, better engine, and etc....

I don't think its game over from Pakistan's side. We really don't need to spend billions on just buying something that has improved payload, and better weapon carrying, and or something that has a new look.

Rather, it would be cheap and effective if JF-17s and J-10s try to improve in later blocks.
Already, some people claim that JF-17 blk 1 has a lower RCA than the F-16 block 52. Moreover, it has an improved radar,KLJ-7, something PAF officials claim to be as capable as the French RC-400. In JF-17 block 2, we are going to have AESA radar and refuelling probes, and IRST. Don't forget, JF-17 has the option of going for WS-13 engine, something more powerful than the RD-93. Last but not least, we had opted to go with J-10B, something we think is better than J-10A.

If we can improve little things just like that and plus have them in large quantities, then that is the best possible thing to do right now to counter India.

 

[anathema]

Windjammer made an excellent point @ Post #9 which you may want to re-visit

Abu - WindJammer did not make any point. His point was what we call bookish logic . To the say the least "If Rafale is equal to 2 * JF 17 - then PAF will buy 2 JF17's for every Rafale that India buys" ..Sorry - it just doesnt work that away. I am pasting the reply to him. You can judge.

"WJ - one problem in that thought process . Taking your example above. Assuming price of 1 Rafale = Price of 4 JF17's.

IAF is/will spend $20B on this acquisition. Will PAF spend $20B to acquire 4*JF17 - to match up with Rafale numbers ? If PAF has that kind of money then why wont they end up selecting plane like gripen or EF itself ?

Further more - More JF17's - More pilots - More infrastructure - More maintenance. So you are looking at mothball effect.

So even though logically your reasoning may work - but practically and in reality - it may not !!"

 

[Abhishek_]

Indian members, buying an aircraft is one thing, perfecting its air tactics is a whole different thing.
Let's not get in to a chest-beating mode, Rafale doesn't change IN-PK scenario much since most of these birds will go to the eastern borders anyway.

And AS ALWAYS, peace and development is the need of the hour for both Pakistan and India.

 

[Kazhugu]

me personally, i'm surprised they wont opt for the Eurofighters. But it may be better for us....not to say that the Rafale is not a formidable aircraft and will prove to be a good challenge for our fighters ---fighters being the gun and the well-drilled man behind the gun.

dogfights are long passe....a well experienced f-16 pilot would be taken out a rookie in a raptor without as much as blinking the eye....the man behind the wheel nonsense cuts no more...

and in any case other than '65...the indian pilots have proved they are second to none...

 

[Bl[i]tZ]

I too do not subscribe to the thread starters rationale "Options for PAF After India Selects Rafale for MMRCA".

Let me state my reasons. Please don't mind my language since I'll try to present an Indian view point.

--> Lately, the IAF has been paying a lot of attention to the eastern border. Su-30MKIs are being placed on the eastern border with China. MMRCA is also most probably going to be stationed on our eastern flank. They are our bigger neighbor and will be honored with our most modern fighters. In case of an immediate war, Pakistan will mostly face 68 Mig29s, 150? Su30MKI, 51 Mirage 2000, 120 Jaguars, 147 Mig27s and 150 Mig 21s or the respective upgraded versions. Other than the Su-30MKIs on China border and some Jaguars on maritime security, all these fighters are Pak specific and PAF probably has some sort of doctrine for them.

->If anything, the two decades have shown us that both the prominent parties in India have not being able to authorize a military op to retaliate against perceived Pakistani adventurism on Indian soil be it Kargil, Parliament attack or Mumbai. The primary reason is nobody in India can predict Pakistan's nuclear threshold. It is assumed that as soon as the tanks break into the southern Punjab, Pakistan might use the nuclear option on advancing forces or take out some key cities. This shivers a lot of Indian politicians since from here on its on auto-pilot, meaning the Indian retaliation (according to our N doctrine) will be massive, causing unacceptable damage. No Indian politician (Yes, even the Hindu-nationalist BJP with Advani et al.) wants to take responsibility for such a nuclear war.


As for the future, solely looking at IAF won't do the trick, you've to count in IN, which is massively modernizing (a 45 strong Mig 29k fighter fleet on order), as well. There are three scenarios from here on -

1. if Pakistan doesn't keep up, in a decades time India might feel comfortable to retaliate against Pak due its FGFA/PAK FA programme, its Anti-ballistic missile system, aircraft carriers and second strike capabilities due to nuclear SSBNs deterring Pakistan not to launch nukes first etc.

2. Pakistan modernizes its armed forces holistically, viz., air defence fighters for air force, nuclear SSNs. (If its economy keeps failing and it tries to match India militarily, it'll suffer like Soviet Union did against the US, remember Russia still has more N bombs than US). So economy is the key here.

3. Both nations move towards peace.

I would like #3 and hope for #1.

 

[DelhiDareDevil]

Excuse me, but isnt all of this talk useless, as the Rafale jets will be stationed in India/China border?

 

[VCheng]

Excuse me, but isnt all of this talk useless, as the Rafale jets will be stationed in India/China border?

Aw come now, let the armchair generals have their fun over afternoon tea!

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

3. India will further make it thinner for pakistan by scattering your assets along your coastline through the use of its multiple aircraft carrier + Su 30 MKIs.

Pakistan does not have a large enough coastline for any effective 'asset scattering due to Indian Aircraft Carriers'. The PAF/PN will have to address an air threat from the coast, but it will not be anywhere close to as large an issue had Pakistan had a coastline like India's - now that would cause an immense headache for military planners if confronted by capable Aircraft Carrier Battle Groups.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

My 2 cents:

1. Now, pakistan have become more dependent on US of A and china.

2. USA can hard bargain and the situation in Afghanistan will also have an effect as pakistan looses its bargaining power.

3. Then there is a possibility of a kill switch in F-16 from USA.

India will go for about 200 Rafale as Tejas will take time in maturing.

Point 3 negates point 1 (where you talk about Pakistan being more dependent on the US).

And If Pakistan does not trust the US when it comes to being a reliable military supplier, then the Indian acquisition of the Rafale does nothing in terms of giving the US more leverage over Pakistan in Afghanistan. In any case, the MMRCA acquisition process has been going on for a long enough time for Pakistan to realize that eventually it would have to cater to such a threat.

 

[Edevelop]

If India never rejected F-16 IN from the U.S, then we would probably have never gotten our F-16 Block 52s and F-16 MLUs.... Now that we have them, it will always be a threat to your aircrafts including rafale.

 

[VCheng]

Pakistan does not have a large enough coastline for any effective 'asset scattering due to Indian Aircraft Carriers'. The PAF/PN will have to address an air threat from the coast, but it will not be anywhere close to as large an issue had Pakistan had a coastline like India's - now that would cause an immense headache for military planners if confronted by capable Aircraft Carrier Battle Groups.

A more important corollary to the relatively short coastline is that Pakistan remains vulnerable to a sea blockade with devastating consequences for its logistics during any conflict longer than a few days or weeks at the most.

 

[Luftwaffe]

A more important corollary to the relatively short coastline is that Pakistan remains vulnerable to a sea blockade with devastating consequences for its logistics during any conflict longer than a few days or weeks at the most.

Any blockade leaves your neighbor directly vulnerable sort of all bets off. You put blockage you face nasty consequences equally. In other words an unfortunate move but has to be implemented to release considerable pressure.

 

[Icewolf]

no worries we'll have finished our production of JF-17 block III or II (both are stealth optimized) so we'll fare well. and we're working on J-2X with China