Opinionated - China Chipping Away to Semiconductor Dominance

[Beast]

Many application still hasnt catch up to 7nm, by late 2020, 7nm processor is still a very advance spec.

 

[Song Hong]

Any fab that manages to obtain ASML EUV will be able to run 7nm process.

The problem of commercial fab elsewhere is getting yield above 80% in order to be profitable. They have to consider P&L.

That is not a problem for China as the state can always subsidize low yield production. Chinese state can always ask the defence sector to fabricate using 7nm process never mind the exorbitant price level.

It's a matter of TIME Chinese engineers learn and perfect 7nm process.

This is how SMIC leap frog and fully acquired know how in 14nm - - which is almost on par with Intel.

 

[Han Patriot]

Any fab that manages to obtain ASML EUV will be able to run 7nm process.

The problem of commercial fab elsewhere is getting yield above 80% in order to be profitable. They have to consider P&L.

That is not a problem for China as the state can always subsidize low yield production. Chinese state can always ask the defence sector to fabricate using 7nm process never mind the exorbitant price level.

It's a matter of TIME Chinese engineers learn and perfect 7nm process.

This is how SMIC leap frog and fully acquired know how in 14nm - - which is almost on par with Intel.

US does not have the most advanced Fab, only the Koreans and Taiwan have it. Intel is at least a generation behind. For Intel to jump, they would need at least 2 years and substantial investment.

 

[Beast]

US does not have the most advanced Fab, only the Koreans and Taiwan have it. Intel is at least a generation behind. For Intel to jump, they would need at least 2 years and substantial investment.

Quite true. But application of high end processor with smaller nm seems unnecessary more for laptop and PC market. Higher nm is more crucial in smartphone sector.

 

[Han Patriot]

Quite true. But application of high end processor with smaller nm seems unnecessary more for laptop and PC market. Higher nm is more crucial in smartphone sector.

Exactly my point, basestations and telco equipment don't use 5nm chips, so when dumbfvks tell me how without 5nm Huawei will be destroyed, that's just stupid. At most they might lose their phone business but who cares, telco equipment is the key threat not smart phones, frigging xiaomi and gang can go for phones.

 

[Paul2]

Any fab that manages to obtain ASML EUV will be able to run 7nm process.

You can run 7nm equivalent process (around 100 megatransistors per mm2) without EUV, it's just gonna be extremely slow, and need extremely pricey maskset. This is what's currently being used by TSMC.

5nm maskset is said to be cheaper than that of 7nm, because of EUV. For the first time in history, a new process will have a cheaper maskset than the previous one, and that's big.

EUV still have terrible scalability problems, and it's very far from practical for anything, but critical device layers, and M0, M1. In the state it is now, you can not practically make the chip entirely with EUV scanner. EUV's scalability problems are many...

Without a key consumer, TSMC will have to basically throw $20B it spent on 5nm down the drain, or endure even more losses. Even if Intel will somehow jump on the TSMC boat, they will not make much difference these days. By "shutting off oxygen" to Huawei, America has cut off the oxygen to TSMC more than to anybody.

The problem of commercial fab elsewhere is getting yield above 80% in order to be profitable. They have to consider P&L.

In order to be profitable, you need high markup. Intel had a record of launching chips with extremely bad yields, as low as 30% in the past.

If you only make chips for some expensive iToys that cost $1000, why not? The cost of a silicon is nothing in that price range, it's the opportunity cost that is the real price setter.

That is not a problem for China as the state can always subsidize low yield production. Chinese state can always ask the defence sector to fabricate using 7nm process never mind the exorbitant price level.

Chinese defence sector has no need in fancy chips. Really, if it doesn't make money, don't spend money on it.

Higher nm is more crucial in smartphone sector.

I doubt even that. Even in a demographic of more tech savvy people, you would barely found anybody these days who will decide buying a smartphone solely for its CPU.

In the company I work, people have abandoned these approaches half a decade ago. It's all about making the product practical, tasteful, and focusing on one or two killer features. That's why BBK is completely steamrolling everybody outside of China nowadays.

If you were to ask me what's my own take on that, I'd say I'd be more concerned about packaging than anything. Advanced packaging these days can actually make you more money than IC production, while only needing like 1/20 of the capital. And it is a far more real oxygen tap for the industry than fab services alone. The 2 top tier packaging/BE OSATs gob up more than 90% of all packaging capacity. That's TSMC packaging business and ASE.

 

[powastick]

Wow, didn't expect SMIC to leapfrog 10nm.

 

[Faith_Lock]

SMIC makes sure people know that this is not 7nm technology. It only offers 20% performance gain over their 14nm technology.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/15649/smic-details-its-n1-process-technology-7nm-performance-in-china

A SMIC’s spokesperson said the following:
“Our target for N+1 is low-cost applications, which can reduce costs by about 10 percent relative to 7nm. So this is a very special application.”

 

[Han Patriot]

SMIC makes sure people know that this is not 7nm technology. It only offers 20% performance gain over their 14nm technology.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/15649/smic-details-its-n1-process-technology-7nm-performance-in-china

A SMIC’s spokesperson said the following:
“Our target for N+1 is low-cost applications, which can reduce costs by about 10 percent relative to 7nm. So this is a very special application.”

No wonder. It's an improved 14nm

 

[Raphael]

SMIC makes sure people know that this is not 7nm technology. It only offers 20% performance gain over their 14nm technology.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/15649/smic-details-its-n1-process-technology-7nm-performance-in-china

A SMIC’s spokesperson said the following:
“Our target for N+1 is low-cost applications, which can reduce costs by about 10 percent relative to 7nm. So this is a very special application.”

No wonder. It's an improved 14nm

So this explains it. I was so shocked that SMIC could leapfrog to 7nm when Intel is struggling with 10nm even in 2020. China's ascent is unstoppable but it's also not an overnight process.

 

[hirobo2]

I don't get what the big deal is other than better phone CPUs. My most advanced computer is an Intel Ivy Bridge with 22nm lithography. I think 7nm is more than enuf to meet most industrial needs.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Any fab that manages to obtain ASML EUV will be able to run 7nm process.

The problem of commercial fab elsewhere is getting yield above 80% in order to be profitable. They have to consider P&L.

That is not a problem for China as the state can always subsidize low yield production. Chinese state can always ask the defence sector to fabricate using 7nm process never mind the exorbitant price level.

It's a matter of TIME Chinese engineers learn and perfect 7nm process.

This is how SMIC leap frog and fully acquired know how in 14nm - - which is almost on par with Intel.

SMIC states that it will run on a non-EUV process. You can get 7 nm resolution in ways that do not involve EUV i.e. putting close-together features on separate masks.

 

[52051]

SMIC states that it will run on a non-EUV process. You can get 7 nm resolution in ways that do not involve EUV i.e. putting close-together features on separate masks.

SMIC's 7nm is just like TSMC's DUV 7nm, so if TSMC can claimed it is their first gen 7nm, why not SMIC

 

[Beidou2020]

SMIC can make 7nm chips without ASML lithography machine
March 31, 2020

Recently, SMIC said that N + 1 process chips will be mass-produced by the end of the year.

Earlier, there were media reports that SMIC Integrated Circuit Manufacturing (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. successfully imported a large lithography machine from the Netherlands.

However, this lithography machine is not a rumored 7nm lithography machine, and the manufacturing process is only a medium level. Of course, as the most critical equipment in integrated circuit manufacturing, lithography machines have a decisive influence on the chip manufacturing process.

Compared with 14nm, the N + 1 process reduces power consumption by 57%, reduces the logic area by 63%, and reduces the SOC area by 55%. This translates to a 7nm chip that can be compared to TSMC. In other words, we can make 7nm chips without ASML's EUV lithography machine.

This means that SMIC has become the third chip company in the world to master processes below 10 nanometers.

For a long time, TSMC has dominated this market and has the absolute right to speak. The competition between SMIC and TSMC has been repeatedly frustrated.

But unexpectedly, SMIC did not give up. Today, SMIC is a 7nm DUV process. Although the cost is higher than EUV, at least it solves the problem from scratch.

If SMIC successfully mass-produces 7nm process chips, it will undoubtedly allow Chinese-made chips to have more and more right to speak.

 

[onebyone]

SMIC can make 7nm chips without ASML lithography machine
March 31, 2020

Recently, SMIC said that N + 1 process chips will be mass-produced by the end of the year.

Earlier, there were media reports that SMIC Integrated Circuit Manufacturing (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. successfully imported a large lithography machine from the Netherlands.

However, this lithography machine is not a rumored 7nm lithography machine, and the manufacturing process is only a medium level. Of course, as the most critical equipment in integrated circuit manufacturing, lithography machines have a decisive influence on the chip manufacturing process.

Compared with 14nm, the N + 1 process reduces power consumption by 57%, reduces the logic area by 63%, and reduces the SOC area by 55%. This translates to a 7nm chip that can be compared to TSMC. In other words, we can make 7nm chips without ASML's EUV lithography machine.

This means that SMIC has become the third chip company in the world to master processes below 10 nanometers.

For a long time, TSMC has dominated this market and has the absolute right to speak. The competition between SMIC and TSMC has been repeatedly frustrated.

But unexpectedly, SMIC did not give up. Today, SMIC is a 7nm DUV process. Although the cost is higher than EUV, at least it solves the problem from scratch.

If SMIC successfully mass-produces 7nm process chips, it will undoubtedly allow Chinese-made chips to have more and more right to speak.

Good New