Opinionated - China Chipping Away to Semiconductor Dominance

[jamahir]

So from 2014, the year this thread was created, all that China has managed to do is set up fabs, and that too by I guess importing foreign machinery ( Dutch ? ) ?

In these seven years China hasn't managed to give to the world some indigenous processor architecture or some new type of memory ( like from the American company Nantero ).

All that China has managed in these seven years is use Western architectures and technologies and at maximum build big factories to manufacture these items.

So what is the so-called dominance about ?

 

[Beidou2020]

@waz please remove the troll posts by the trolls. Ruining a great thread.

 

[Beast]

So from 2014, the year this thread was created, all that China has managed to do is set up fabs, and that too by I guess importing foreign machinery ( Dutch ? ) ?

In these seven years China hasn't managed to give to the world some indigenous processor architecture or some new type of memory ( like from the American company Nantero ).

All that China has managed in these seven years is use Western architectures and technologies and at maximum build big factories to manufacture these items.

So what is the so-called dominance about ?

Dumb idiot think Rome can be build in a day?

 

[kankan326]

So from 2014, the year this thread was created, all that China has managed to do is set up fabs, and that too by I guess importing foreign machinery ( Dutch ? ) ?

In these seven years China hasn't managed to give to the world some indigenous processor architecture or some new type of memory ( like from the American company Nantero ).

All that China has managed in these seven years is use Western architectures and technologies and at maximum build big factories to manufacture these items.

So what is the so-called dominance about ?

Because China used to believe international industrial division. Which was promoted by US and now also broke by US itself. It is US' fault who changed the game rules made by itself.

 

[jamahir]

@waz please remove the troll posts by the trolls. Ruining a great thread.

I merely asked some simple questions. What is so trollish about them ?

Dumb idiot think Rome can be build in a day?

So you agree that just pushing large amounts of money and engineers isn't going to help develop new processor and memory architectures and techniques ?

China has been working with the American MIPS processor architecture and the British ARM processor architecture for a long time. By now, Chinese computer scientists should have learnt from those two and designed something new.

As for you calling me an idiot, I have been designing a processor and OS for some years now. Me against entire China.

Because China used to believe international industrial division. Which was promoted by US and now also broke by US itself. It is US' fault who changed the game rules made by itself.

OK but shouldn't China have foreseen that USA will break the rules at some point ?

 

[Beast]

I merely asked some simple questions. What is so trollish about them ?



So you agree that just pushing large amounts of money and engineers isn't going to help develop a new processor and memory architectures and techniques ?

China has been working with the American MIPS processor architecture and the British ARM processor architecture for a long time. By now, Chinese computer scientists should have learnt from those two and designed something new.

As for you calling me an idiot, I have been designing a processor and OS for some years now. Me against entire China.



OK but shouldn't China have foreseen that USA will break the rules at some point ?

You need to read more of this thread before try being a smart alec.

Backgrounder: What is 'Loongson' computer chip?

Learn more about China's effort to replace Intel and AMD in case the U.S. pull the plug.

news.cgtn.com

All our military equipment including satellite are running Chinese processor unlike France, India and many other countries military equipment. The most critical equipment are in our hands.

This is after billion of dollars pour in and the fruit is seen.

 

[jamahir]

You need to read more of this thread before try being a smart alec.

Backgrounder: What is 'Loongson' computer chip?

Learn more about China's effort to replace Intel and AMD in case the U.S. pull the plug.

news.cgtn.com

Dear sir, from your linked article :

But Loongson found its own way. They bought a license from MIPS and made Loongson 2 series, which powered commercial products like the Lemote Yeeloong netbook computer.

With that said, Loongson is being applied to China's space program and some military systems. Since the chip is MIPS-compatible, modern computer systems like GNU/Linux can run on it without big problems.

So that particular version of Loongson was based on the American architecture MIPS.

However, the article goes on :

In the same year, Loongson announced their own CPU architecture, the Godson 464E, which is no longer MIPS-dependent.

Now that is good news. However, there is the question of writing a new operating system software for this new processor architecture, so it begs the question : What is the processor architecture ? I won't be surprised if to avoid the step of writing a new operating system the Chinese engineers simply went in for another commercially available processor architecture like the British ARM processor, since Linux and the entire ARM software ecosystem is already available. Unless of course you point me to an article which proves conclusively that this Loongson version is entirely a new architecture, in which case are the questions : Why is this Loongson not being sold to the rest of the world ? Why do Chinese made computers ( cell phones etc ) use ARM processors ?

All our military equipment including satellite are running Chinese processor unlike France, India and many other countries military equipment. The most critical equipment are in our hands.

India has a small fabrication facility called SCL ( Semi-conductor Laboratory ) which produces processors ( not indigenous design sadly ) for India's space and military applications.

 

[Beast]

Dear sir, from your linked article :


So that particular version of Loongson was based on the American architecture MIPS.

However, the article goes on :

Now that is good news. However, there is the question of writing a new operating system software for this new processor architecture, so it begs the question : What is the processor architecture ? I won't be surprised if to avoid the step of writing a new operating system the Chinese engineers simply went in for another commercially available processor architecture like the British ARM processor, since Linux and the entire ARM software ecosystem is already available. Unless of course you point me to an article which proves conclusively that this Loongson version is entirely a new architecture, in which case are the questions : Why is this Loongson not being sold to the rest of the world ? Why do Chinese made computers ( cell phones etc ) use ARM processors ?



India has a small fabrication facility called SCL ( Semi-conductor Laboratory ) which specifically produces processors ( not indigenous design sadly ) for space and military applications.

Stop divert the point. Do western has right to audit Chinese military equipment to check whether development right or loyalty paid to western with their architect or software? They have no control our critical component unlike those military deploy western chips which has chances of being hack and intercept or even cut off from supply.

 

[jamahir]

Stop divert the point. Do western has right to audit Chinese military equipment to check whether development right or loyalty paid to western with their architect or software? They have no control our critical component unlike those military deploy western chips which has chances of being hack and intercept or even cut off from supply.

I agree with your second point that China having the ability to fabricate processors and other chips means that Western militaries cannot hack into Chinese computers or that Western governments won't be able to cut off supply. I agree to this.

But my original point was : Has China has produced a new processor architecture / ISA ? Has China given this new processor ISA to the world, say in its cell phone products ?

 

[obj 705A]

@jamahir
Having a well developed semiconductor industry is no easy task, heck it is far much more difficult than any other industry, it requires a significant amount of time and money, 7 years is nothing for such a tremendous task. Seven years is like the blink of an eye for developing semiconductors.
And no miracles can happen in this industry, by that I mean this industry can only mature as the country itself matures, the only countries that have a good semiconductor industry (excluding the US) are relatively small countries who can only focus on few industries, take the Taiwan province as an example, yes they have a good semiconductor industry but that's about it, China has so much more, they are developing almost every single piece of technology.
Even a country like South Korea, which has a good semiconductor industry in addition to many other industries , yet the scale of it pales in comparison to the number of industries that China has, I can't even enumerate them because China has so much.

Also did you bother reading the news that get posted in this thread?

 

[Beast]

I agree with your second point that China having the ability to fabricate processors and other chips means that Western militaries cannot hack into Chinese computers or that Western governments won't be able to cut off supply. I agree to this.

But my original point was : Has China has produced a new processor architecture / ISA ? Has China given this new processor ISA to the world, say in its cell phone products ?

Cell phone is just a single sector of whole world product. There are many sector we are already being self sufficient and proves our billion investment pays off. We are on track for 7nm chips of smartphone for this year. 5nm will still need sometime which is not far.

Ask yourself why all foreign car manufacturer like German, Japan are grumbling about lack of chips for their car while Chinese car manufacturers has no such problems?

 

[somsak]

I agree with your second point that China having the ability to fabricate processors and other chips means that Western militaries cannot hack into Chinese computers or that Western governments won't be able to cut off supply. I agree to this.

But my original point was : Has China has produced a new processor architecture / ISA ? Has China given this new processor ISA to the world, say in its cell phone products ?

Yes.

Sunway SW26010 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[TaiShang]

I agree with your second point that China having the ability to fabricate processors and other chips means that Western militaries cannot hack into Chinese computers or that Western governments won't be able to cut off supply. I agree to this.

But my original point was : Has China has produced a new processor architecture / ISA ? Has China given this new processor ISA to the world, say in its cell phone products ?

Trade war is a much recent phenomenon. By Then, China's objective was to be placed in the value chain, not to dominate it.

The thread title suggests that, too. Breaking down monopoly does not mean domination on China's part.

I guess we were all brainwashed into the idea of complex interdepence and market rationalism. Yet, Trump has proven that market rationalism is relative, not absolute.

Currently, too, China does not seek domination, but independence only. This is especially so in the past two years (Second part of Trump's term).

I think any developing/non-Western country that places all their faith in Western magnanimouty or ideological affinity is in the wrong eventually.

China learned it by experience. It is fighting with blood and tear. How about those unable to learn?

 

[Han Patriot]

Trade war is a much recent phenomenon. By Then, China's objective was to be placed in the value chain, not to dominate it.

The thread title suggests that, too. Breaking down monopoly does not mean domination on China's part.

I guess we were all brainwashed into the idea of complex interdepence and market rationalism. Yet, Trump has proven that market rationalism is relative, not absolute.

Currently, too, China does not seek domination, but independence only. This is especially so in the past two years (Second part of Trump's term).

I think any developing/non-Western country that places all their faith in Western magnanimouty or ideological affinity is in the wrong eventually.

China learned it by experience. It is fighting with blood and tear. How about those unable to learn?

People tend to forget China prefered shared prosperity but now US is forcing us to be tech independent, even the Europeans are awake now.

 

[Paul2]

200mm was supposed to fade away as 300mm came online, and that worked from 2007 – 2014, but the trend reversed thereafter. Customers like building on 200mm fab lines because the manufacturing technologies are extremely mature and the costs are low. Many customers don’t get much benefit from moving to lower geometries, and they want to stick with the designs they’ve already paid​

The highlighted is problematic for the transition to 300 mm and it is the same for a supposedly move from 300 to 450 mm, which have been in limbo for more than a decade.

300mm economic advantage becomes insurmountable at high volumes, but the automotive is not near that point. Its a market of small lots, and really assorted IC.

200mm has the advantage of super-cheap masks, and small lots. This matters a lot in a quite small automotive IC market. They would've stuck to 200mm, even without the certification being a showstopper for automotive ICs.

By the way G450C was Cuomo's pet project through SUNY which hosted the program, and went bust after NYC government dropped the ball on it after Cuomo bribery scandal.

Precisely because the automotive industry have different standards for autonomous applications, developers would rather stick with what they know to be proven. For the foreseeable future, as the EV matures in designs, engineering, and mass manufacturing, the EV will have more internal volume so the need for miniaturization, as expected with 300 mm geometries, will not be there, keeping the 200 mm wafers around for as long as the fabs can make money from them.

I see it going very much like you say, but here are some counter arguments.

Some companies may move just because of 300mm capacity guarantees being more solid than 200mm, but I see no industry-wide need to move. TI, I know, does a majority of its mixed signal on 300mm for every project they can't make on their own fabs exactly because of that.

Further increase in 200mm demand will lessen its economic appeal for sure. 200mm fabs can't keep increasing lead times to infinity.

And... even the certification is not a showstopper. You've better have seen horror story like run-cards on stuff sold to automotive. Having seen some myself, I can only wonder what's the point of all that certification now if buyers don't really care.

My clients will be satisfied that I am not losing any certification and time because these are established technologies. If I build/buy a 300 mm fab, it would be monumentally stupid, not to say losing money, to build common products with 200 mm geometries on a 300 mm wafer. So why should I risk at least 2 yrs of making no money by moving to 300 mm ?

Money wise, 200mm is surely a gold mine now.

SMIC's idea to use 200mm in a first tier fab in 2018 was laughed out, but now they are shovelling money.

And yes, and idea of using new 300mm fabs to produce at 200mm geometries does not make sense, even with the current demand crunch. Prices on 180nm-90nm need to go up like twice for that to happen, and if they will, then people will switch to lower geometries at least for logic.

This make 200 mm wafer technologies and associated equipment even more valuable, which means more money the foundries can charge.

Money, and time will tell.