Opinion: Is Egypt facing war with Israel?
Four decades after the signing of the peace agreement, significant political changes are taking place in Egypt. Along with massive military armament, there is concern that it is preparing for another campaign against the State of Israel.
Israel Defense | 7/06/2020 Contact author
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An Egyptian corps during a military patrol near Muhammad Morsi's grave. REUTERS / Amr Abdallah Dalsh
The peace agreement with Egypt was a defining moment in the history of the State of Israel. After decades of war, the threat was finally removed, and Israel entered a regional peace outline. But in recent years, changes have taken place in Egypt, raising concerns that we will never be resilient.
The start of the Arab Spring trend, which led to the fall of President Hosni Mubarak and the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, led by Muhammad Morsi. While the new leader was hostile to Israel, he focused more on domestic affairs and avoided violating the clauses of the peace agreement. But Morsi did not survive in power for long: a military revolution initiated by the general appointed by the army, Abdel Fattah a-Sisi, led to his ouster in 2013 and the military regime in the country.
This regime has caused some disturbing changes for Israel. First, as part of the ISIS struggle in Sinai and Israel's approval, the foreigners to the peninsula were tens of thousands of Egyptian soldiers, equipped with modern combat systems such as helicopters, tanks and armored vehicles. This force led to the Egyptian Rafah flattening, the deportation of all its residents to the other side of the Suez Canal, as well as a series of attacks on Daesh terror cells in Sinai.
At the same time, Egypt began a rapid and comprehensive armament process. The Egyptian Navy began to purchase combat ships, submarines and even helicopter landers. The Land Force bought hundreds of new Abrams-type tanks, anti-aircraft guns, cannons and new combat systems. In the aerospace field, the state has equipped with new ground-based missiles over hundreds of miles, increasing the number of its F-16s. As part of improving logistics infrastructure, Egypt paved highways in Sinai, dug tunnels under the Suez Canal and began renovating old military camps and ports on both sides of the canal, setting up new ports and preparing fuel and ammunition reservoirs. Despite various explanations offered by experts for this process - the location of the logistics systems indicates that Egypt is preparing for the possibility of a land war with Israel.
Protesters in Tahrir Square, Cairo, at the height of the Arab Spring. 2012. REUTERS / Mohamed Abd El Ghan
Intentions are not important, just choices
Here they will ask: "But who said the Egyptians were planning a war?" It is important when we are neighbors of a country that shares the same values and beliefs with us, as in the example of the US and Canada. If the neighboring country does not share our values, the expectation of eternal peace stands as chicken bones.
Egypt is a military dictatorship. The peace treaty with it did not result in the acceptance of the State of Israel by the Egyptian elites nor by the people. These continue to show hostility to Israel and negate its legitimate existence. Only this year came up for broadcast - with the approval of A-Sisi, the destruction of Israel. In terms of geopolitics of the Middle East, Israel stands like a bone in its throat. President A-Sisi, who did not hesitate to betray Morsi who appointed him the army chief, imprison him and put him on trial, will not hesitate to betray the Jews and attack them when he suits him.
Of course, such a situation is not expected when America's president is sympathetic to the president, but the situation could certainly change if the US chooses a hostile president. In such a reality, the temptation to force Israel "peace defender" to accept Arab demands for return would increase, even at a cost of war, perhaps in one of the endless rounds against Gaza, or in another scenario of confrontation with Arab states. In Sinai and flow into Israel, with the goal of resolving it in just a few hours (perhaps with electronic noise covers that would create a black hole for Israel's technology systems as I suggested earlier).
At the same time, Egyptian forces may use the logistical infrastructure located in the Canal and Sinai area to reinforce the invading forces, and the Egyptian Navy (the sixth largest in the world) may try to block Israel from its remote ports in the Mediterranean and prevent supplies to Israel (while a hostile Democratic president avoids supply , As Obama did during Operation Strong Cliff). Hamas and Hezbollah and Hamas are also likely to join the attack with incessant rocket attacks, terrorist attacks will burst out of the Palestinian Authority, and there will also be internal riots from hostile insiders, as we saw in 2000. I don't want to think what could happen if Turkey turns against us.
In the war the big battalions win"
Israel is dormant against the growing Egyptian threat. While the submarine affair had generated a bit of noise, showing that most of Israelis are Egypt's enemies, the IDF's programs are still focused on Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. In these decrees, pressure has been created by the political echelon of technological improvement, which will provide a point of success for Israel without complicating it in a comprehensive war. As a result, the military is increasingly focusing on surgical technology that will allow it to exhaust the enemy without paying too high a price. This focus on technology during a current security period does not fit into an overall war involving Egypt, Hamas, Hezbollah, and internal partners. In such a situation, the IDF will have to go to a maneuver war that will require the parallel action of all parties to achieve victory.
However, the focus on technology has depleted the logistical overall maneuverability: If a Yom Kippur War damaged tank was returned within 24 hours, then in the Second Lebanon War, the IDF failed to provide food and water to fighters within 3 km of the border. At the same time, more and more combat units being built for the purpose of an overall war, such as the Armored Brigade 500, were dismantled. Also, reserve divisions are seen as more irrelevant in the army. The army assumes that an overall war is not expected in the coming years and the existence of such units is unnecessary. For example, the Chief of Staff Kochavi recently announced plans to dismantle two reserve divisions soon.
But such a premise has no more basis. The arming of the Egyptian army requires us to place an army against me in a similar force. "In the war the big battalions are winning," Napoleon said, and the State of Israel needs large battalions. For this reason, the 300 Gideon program proposed by Yoram Yuval is inappropriate. The State of Israel must also mobilize the ultra-Orthodox as an additional force to moor the divisions to curb kneading and the ships that will prevent the siege of Israel. The ultra-Orthodox personnel are also needed to reestablish the heating system, which will restore maneuverability to the IDF.
In 1672, the King of France, Louis XIV, surprised by surprise the Dutch Republic and almost conquered it. In their despair, the Dutch opened the dams, flooded the country and thus prevented their conquest. Israel has no dams like the Netherlands, or a canal that will protect us as the Canal of Manash has protected England over a thousand years. What Israel has is only the IDF, and it should be ready for war.
Written by Jacob David Fisher
https://www.israeldefense.co.il/he/node/43424 translted by google
Four decades after the signing of the peace agreement, significant political changes are taking place in Egypt. Along with massive military armament, there is concern that it is preparing for another campaign against the State of Israel.
Israel Defense | 7/06/2020 Contact author
send to a friend
A + A- size
Share on
Share on
An Egyptian corps during a military patrol near Muhammad Morsi's grave. REUTERS / Amr Abdallah Dalsh
The peace agreement with Egypt was a defining moment in the history of the State of Israel. After decades of war, the threat was finally removed, and Israel entered a regional peace outline. But in recent years, changes have taken place in Egypt, raising concerns that we will never be resilient.
The start of the Arab Spring trend, which led to the fall of President Hosni Mubarak and the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, led by Muhammad Morsi. While the new leader was hostile to Israel, he focused more on domestic affairs and avoided violating the clauses of the peace agreement. But Morsi did not survive in power for long: a military revolution initiated by the general appointed by the army, Abdel Fattah a-Sisi, led to his ouster in 2013 and the military regime in the country.
This regime has caused some disturbing changes for Israel. First, as part of the ISIS struggle in Sinai and Israel's approval, the foreigners to the peninsula were tens of thousands of Egyptian soldiers, equipped with modern combat systems such as helicopters, tanks and armored vehicles. This force led to the Egyptian Rafah flattening, the deportation of all its residents to the other side of the Suez Canal, as well as a series of attacks on Daesh terror cells in Sinai.
At the same time, Egypt began a rapid and comprehensive armament process. The Egyptian Navy began to purchase combat ships, submarines and even helicopter landers. The Land Force bought hundreds of new Abrams-type tanks, anti-aircraft guns, cannons and new combat systems. In the aerospace field, the state has equipped with new ground-based missiles over hundreds of miles, increasing the number of its F-16s. As part of improving logistics infrastructure, Egypt paved highways in Sinai, dug tunnels under the Suez Canal and began renovating old military camps and ports on both sides of the canal, setting up new ports and preparing fuel and ammunition reservoirs. Despite various explanations offered by experts for this process - the location of the logistics systems indicates that Egypt is preparing for the possibility of a land war with Israel.
Protesters in Tahrir Square, Cairo, at the height of the Arab Spring. 2012. REUTERS / Mohamed Abd El Ghan
Intentions are not important, just choices
Here they will ask: "But who said the Egyptians were planning a war?" It is important when we are neighbors of a country that shares the same values and beliefs with us, as in the example of the US and Canada. If the neighboring country does not share our values, the expectation of eternal peace stands as chicken bones.
Egypt is a military dictatorship. The peace treaty with it did not result in the acceptance of the State of Israel by the Egyptian elites nor by the people. These continue to show hostility to Israel and negate its legitimate existence. Only this year came up for broadcast - with the approval of A-Sisi, the destruction of Israel. In terms of geopolitics of the Middle East, Israel stands like a bone in its throat. President A-Sisi, who did not hesitate to betray Morsi who appointed him the army chief, imprison him and put him on trial, will not hesitate to betray the Jews and attack them when he suits him.
Of course, such a situation is not expected when America's president is sympathetic to the president, but the situation could certainly change if the US chooses a hostile president. In such a reality, the temptation to force Israel "peace defender" to accept Arab demands for return would increase, even at a cost of war, perhaps in one of the endless rounds against Gaza, or in another scenario of confrontation with Arab states. In Sinai and flow into Israel, with the goal of resolving it in just a few hours (perhaps with electronic noise covers that would create a black hole for Israel's technology systems as I suggested earlier).
At the same time, Egyptian forces may use the logistical infrastructure located in the Canal and Sinai area to reinforce the invading forces, and the Egyptian Navy (the sixth largest in the world) may try to block Israel from its remote ports in the Mediterranean and prevent supplies to Israel (while a hostile Democratic president avoids supply , As Obama did during Operation Strong Cliff). Hamas and Hezbollah and Hamas are also likely to join the attack with incessant rocket attacks, terrorist attacks will burst out of the Palestinian Authority, and there will also be internal riots from hostile insiders, as we saw in 2000. I don't want to think what could happen if Turkey turns against us.
In the war the big battalions win"
Israel is dormant against the growing Egyptian threat. While the submarine affair had generated a bit of noise, showing that most of Israelis are Egypt's enemies, the IDF's programs are still focused on Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. In these decrees, pressure has been created by the political echelon of technological improvement, which will provide a point of success for Israel without complicating it in a comprehensive war. As a result, the military is increasingly focusing on surgical technology that will allow it to exhaust the enemy without paying too high a price. This focus on technology during a current security period does not fit into an overall war involving Egypt, Hamas, Hezbollah, and internal partners. In such a situation, the IDF will have to go to a maneuver war that will require the parallel action of all parties to achieve victory.
However, the focus on technology has depleted the logistical overall maneuverability: If a Yom Kippur War damaged tank was returned within 24 hours, then in the Second Lebanon War, the IDF failed to provide food and water to fighters within 3 km of the border. At the same time, more and more combat units being built for the purpose of an overall war, such as the Armored Brigade 500, were dismantled. Also, reserve divisions are seen as more irrelevant in the army. The army assumes that an overall war is not expected in the coming years and the existence of such units is unnecessary. For example, the Chief of Staff Kochavi recently announced plans to dismantle two reserve divisions soon.
But such a premise has no more basis. The arming of the Egyptian army requires us to place an army against me in a similar force. "In the war the big battalions are winning," Napoleon said, and the State of Israel needs large battalions. For this reason, the 300 Gideon program proposed by Yoram Yuval is inappropriate. The State of Israel must also mobilize the ultra-Orthodox as an additional force to moor the divisions to curb kneading and the ships that will prevent the siege of Israel. The ultra-Orthodox personnel are also needed to reestablish the heating system, which will restore maneuverability to the IDF.
In 1672, the King of France, Louis XIV, surprised by surprise the Dutch Republic and almost conquered it. In their despair, the Dutch opened the dams, flooded the country and thus prevented their conquest. Israel has no dams like the Netherlands, or a canal that will protect us as the Canal of Manash has protected England over a thousand years. What Israel has is only the IDF, and it should be ready for war.
Written by Jacob David Fisher
https://www.israeldefense.co.il/he/node/43424 translted by google
