ANALYSIS
Date Posted: 12-Jun-2009
Jane's Defence Weekly
Islamabad shifts policy and confronts militants
The Pakistan Army's campaign in Swat has shown a genuine resolve to combat militancy but there is little focus on long-term solutions, writes Farhan Bokhari
The Pakistan Army's campaign against Taliban militants in Swat appears to be heading towards a successful conclusion, with General Ashafq Parvez Kiyani, the army's chief of staff, saying in early June that "the tide in Swat has decisively turned".
The army now appears to have scaled down the operation from its mid-May peak, when US-supplied AH-1 Cobra helicopter gunships supported by fighter aircraft from the Pakistan Air Force were used to pound Taliban positions. The operational focus has since shifted to targeting suspected militant hideouts.
Once the battle for Swat ends, Jane's understands that the army is likely to stay for at least a year to guard against any Taliban revival in the area.
Widening the operation
The Pakistan Army, acting on information gathered by Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and other agencies, has also begun expanding its operations into the lawless region along the Afghan border known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The biggest challenge in this region comes from Waziristan, where Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan leader Baitullah Mehsud bases his operations.
In the latest act of terrorism attributed to Mehsud's group, up to 500 kg of explosives were used to target the Pearl Continental Hotel in Peshawar, Pakistan's northern frontier city, on 9 June. The attack killed 16 people, including two UN officials, and suggested that Taliban militants were fighting back after suffering heavy losses in the month-long Swat campaign.
The attack in Peshawar has increased the pressure on the Pakistani government and the military to destroy Taliban sanctuaries in Waziristan and elsewhere. The military's own attitude towards the Taliban has certainly hardened. Video footage from the Taliban's propaganda outfit, which showed military officers and soldiers being beheaded by militants, has led the army to warn that those responsible cannot expect to retain their previous ties to the military.
Security experts believe Mehsud has systematically trained a cadre of fighters who are resisting the military effort, as well as a group of ideologically motivated suicide bombers. Taliban footage from Swat seen by Jane's shows three young men who embrace their co-fighters before driving their cars packed with explosives to blow up government offices.
A Western defence official in Islamabad who has also seen the footage said it was difficult to know how many of these well-trained suicide bombers were still waiting to attack. "I suspect they are in the tens: so a maximum of between 50 to 100," he said.
However, defence analysts said that the military's victory in Swat could be seen as a turning point for Pakistan's battle against the Taliban. "Once it has been proven that the Pakistan Army can fight a battle against these people and win that battle, then that makes a difference to the military's position," Lieutenant General (retired) Talat Masood told Jane's.
There are two areas where Pakistan's position remains vulnerable: the challenge of rehabilitating the two million people who fled the fighting in Swat; and retaining the public's support for the military campaign.
On the first issue, Lieutenant General Nadeem Ahmed, a widely respected Pakistan Army commander who led relief operations after the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir, has been placed in charge of the relief and long-term rehabilitation of Swat's displaced. He told Jane's that the country faced "very big trouble" if it fails to address the issue of refugees. One Western official told Jane's: "There is a danger of riots in Pakistan's big cities if these people are unable to go to their homes and start to become restless".
On the issue of retaining public support, there has been criticism of the Pakistani military's media strategy. Since the operation in Swat began, the military's information wing, Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), has focused on facilitating access to teams from Pakistan's TV channels. In the short term, this policy has paid off by giving domestic viewers a favourable insight into the military effort.
However, the failure to allow similar access to international media has wasted a valuable opportunity to build a much higher profile for the campaign in key foreign destinations where Pakistan has routinely sought economic and military assistance, such as the United States and Europe.
Closing the Taliban chapter
While the Pakistani military has become engaged against domestic Taliban militants who challenge the authority of the state, it is unclear if it will join any campaign against the Afghan Taliban unless Pakistan's own security concerns are adequately addressed.
Chief among these is the issue of Kashmir: something that US President Barack Obama referred to in his election campaign as demanding the world's attention.
However, Obama's failure to bring up Kashmir during his speech in Cairo - which centred instead on Palestine - has clearly disappointed Pakistani officials.
"Unless the issue of Kashmir is not only recognised as a threat to world peace and steps are taken to address this, how can we come fully on board on any major security initiatives?" a senior Pakistani government official told Jane's. "The terrorism in this region ultimately relates to activists from Kashmir. How can militancy be addressed comprehensively without some movement on Kashmir?"
As a result of the recent spate of terrorist attacks that has recently rocked the country, with the attack in Peshawar being the latest, the military has now decided to confront home-grown extremists. This marks a major policy shift by the state of Pakistan.
And yet, without Pakistan's inclusion in a broader regional security arrangement that includes resolving the issue of Kashmir, Islamabad's willingness to tackle the Afghan Taliban who remain in its territory will remain in doubt - as will the region's long-term stability.
Farhan Bokhari is a JDW Correspondent based in Islamabad
