DAWN.COM | Front Page | Battle for Waziristan looms
Battle for Waziristan looms
By Ismail Khan
Friday, 02 Oct, 2009 | 06:35 AM PST
PESHAWAR, Oct 1: After fighting brief skirmishes against militants, the Pakistan Army plans to unfold in the next few days what military officials characterise as the mother of all battles in South Waziristan, senior military and security officials said on Thursday.
“If we don’t take the battle to them, they will bring the battle to us,” a senior military official said of the militants. “The epicentre of the behemoth called the Taliban lies in South Waziristan, and this is where we will be fighting the toughest of all battles.”
For three months, the military has been drawing up plans, holding in-depth deliberations and carrying out studies on past expeditions to make what seems to be the last grand stand against Pakistani Taliban in the Mehsud heartland a success.
“We are ready. The environment is ready,” the senior officer said. But military officials also admit Waziristan will not be an easy battle. “It will not be a walkover. This is going to be casualty-intensive hard fighting. The nation will have to bear the pain,” said another officer.
Already this past summer, the military has lost more than three hundred of its soldiers in the Swat valley. One out of ten was officer — the highest soldier-to-officer casualty ratio in any war, skirmish or operation in the world, a spokesman for the military said.
By the military’s own reckoning, the past two operations against the tribal militants in South Waziristan ended in failure. The Jan 2004 operation led to the infamous Shakai peace agreement in April 2004, followed by another agreement with the now-dead Tehrik-i-Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud on Feb 5, 2005.
In late January last year, the military launched Operation Zalzala with the stated goal of dislodging Baitullah Mehsud from his stronghold. The operation did not cause even a tremor and only 12 days later, were authorities struggling to revive the dead Sararogha agreement.
With that went even the pretence of any state authority as control of the volatile region was ceded to now emboldened militants.
Much water has flowed under the bridge since then, military officials add. Militants have been driven out of Swat; with additional forces available Bajaur is just heading there and Mohmand is close to being cleared.
“The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan as a monolithic organisation remains no more,” a security official claimed.
The icing on the cake came with the death of Baitullah Mehsud in a drone attack in August. His death complemented the military’s plan that included an economic blockade already in place since June.
Thousands of army soldiers — two divisions — are now sitting on the fringes of the Mehsud mainland waiting for orders from the high command to move in. A debate is raging within some circles whether the military could have mounted an assault shortly after BM’s death. “As far as we are concerned the operation should have been launched three months ago,” a senior government official said.
“Baitullah is dead and his group seems to be in some sort of disarray. And this provides the best opportunity to go after them,” the official said.
“That may have been correct,” acknowledged a senior military official. “We thought that Baitullah’s death would unravel the Mehsud militant group and galvanise the tribe to stand up to the people who have caused them suffering. It didn’t happen,” the official argued.
And one major factor for the delay, according to this official, was also the availability of additional forces and resources. “We have the men and material now and everything is in place,” he added.
With additional force available, the blockade has been made more effective by occupying three strategic heights along Mehsuds’ border with North Waziristan besides virtually sealing all four access points in the battle-zone from Razmak-Makeen, Wana-Ludda, Jandola-Sararogha and Kanigoram-Jandola. Perhaps the only escape route available to the militants now is to the Shawal mountains.
In addition to this, the government has been able to neutralise Commander Nazir Group in Wana, in the Ahmadzai Wazir area of South Waziristan, and Commander Hafiz Gul Bahadur in North Waziristan.
The killing of seventeen militants of the Nazir group, reportedly by pro-Baitullah Uzbek fighters inside Mehsud territory, drove the last nail in the coffin of a pan-Waziristan alliance between the three groups, cobbled together by the late Baitullah last year.
There is a sense within the military establishment that the situation in South Waziristan could not be allowed to drag on. The blockade is nearly three-months old and the military is sitting on the fringes, firing artillery and fighting off attacks from seemingly desperate Mehsud fighters.
Also, the army is running out of targets for air strikes and quick get-in and get-out type surgical strikes due to intelligence problems. Army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani recently described the Mehsud badlands as an intelligence black hole. “We have to move in,” he said.
Military planners hope that by moving in physically, they would be able to garner crucial support from reluctant Mehsud tribesmen to provide intelligence.
Equally useful support in terms of intelligence may also come from Misbahuddin, who leads the anti-Baitullah group formed by Abdullah Mehsud before he was killed. Indeed, Misbahuddin’s group has been on the trail and hunt of Baitullah’s men, either picking them directly or pointing them out to law enforcers in cities as far away as Karachi and Peshawar.
In another boon for the army, a large number of Mehsud tribesmen have already relocated to Dera Ismail Khan and Tank, giving a relatively free hand to the high command to mount a massive operation in an area spread over 2,419 square kilometres.
But all agree that the battle ahead is formidable. Questions remain if the army would be able to hold and sustain the operation in what is widely believed to be a tough and treacherous terrain.
Weather may also play a significant role in shaping up the battle in a place where temperature drops to 20 degrees centigrade below freezing point in winters.
In the Mehsud heartland, snow starts to set in towards the end of November and that may restrict logistic supplies to un-acclimatised troops fighting in an inhospitable territory. But military strategists say the weather problem would hit the militants more than it would hit the troops.The militants have the advantage of knowing their terrain and territory. “It is difficult to dislodge someone holding the high-ground,” acknowledged one officer.
To strengthen their defences, Mehsuds have the support of some two thousand ferocious fighters. The total strength of the Mehsud-Uzbek and non-local Pakistani militant combine is stated to be between six thousand and seven thousand. “It is going to be a battle with the Uzbeks more than anybody else,” the officer said.
And then there is the external element – the Haqqani and Al Qaeda network that is heavily dependent on the Mehsud fighting force. “They will defend their power base and fight to the last man,” the officer remarked.
In line with their tradition, the officer said, the Mehsuds may try and ignite fire elsewhere in Pakistan. Suicide bombing is their most time-proven and lethal weapon.
Already, 71 people have died in six suicide bombings in the NWFP last month. Qari Hussain, the mastermind of suicide bombings in Pakistan, has already issued a chilling warning to unleash his bombers and “inflict pain” to avenge the death of Baitullah and Hakeemullah’s brother.
To slow down any military movement, the militants are believed to have planted improvised explosive devices and fortified their positions. “They are as much ready for the battle as we are,” a senior official maintained.
“Let’s not assume that the battle will be over in three to four days. It may take us three to four weeks. We have done our homework and are ready for the battle. But in the final analysis, it is God’s will that will determine the course of action. And that’s the punch-line,” the official remarked.
