jaibi
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The new nexus: Indo-China conflict in Kashmir and implications for Pakistan
As the conflict between the two giants of Asia culminates the center of that shifts closely to Pakistan and its interest in securing Kashmir and there is something that needs to be said about that dynamic here: despite much of the academic treatment, there is one point that needs to be stated here; India has far greater military presence in Kashmir than Pakistan even if we take other factors such as the ratio of area controlled, key positions to be held and ramifications for each nation into play. However, historically, India has always played the part of stating that it needs to also cater to the Chinese threat and not just Pakistan. Yet, as we saw, Indian military was unprepared for the Chinese build up and so was its political machinery.
We have covered the Indo-China angle before and now let us focus on the possible direction that this new development can take and what does it entail for Pakistan.
Permanent troika – the most likely scenario
If we take the Chinese strategy into account it is reasonable to assume that the presence would be a permanent feature. Therefore, India would not just have to deal with Pakistan in Kashmir but also China and any further build up would escalate the situation further. The condition of the Indian economy with mega-corporations does not allow for a friendly environment where India can afford that. I would like to highlight that the same thing happened in the 2001-02 military escalation between India and Pakistan; India had to factor in the economic cost of such tensions as well whereas Pakistan was relatively free of that impact as many businesses started taking their money out from India.
Moreover, China has taken a note from India’s playbook and made this a bi-lateral issue shielding it from the international forum; something India has routinely done with Pakistan. For the purpose of this article, we’re going to sideline the political discussion of this and focus on the strategic implications. Therefore, if India invites international attention to this arena then its own ambition of being taken as a serious contender of power in the world gets challenged and it opens up the door for Pakistan to exploit the issue further.
Implications for Pakistan
It seems like China is there to stay; therefore, Pakistan can have some breathing space because our issue has not been purely military, in that arena Pakistan has always been able to challenge its larger neighbor successfully but economics. With the Chinese presence, Pakistan can focus on developing its economy in order to afford deterrence and develop a much needed large scale reforms without the looming threat of escalation with India over Kashmir and being solely responsible for catering to the region militarily.
A new player?
The South Asian region in which, we can count, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh directly with Afghanistan, Iran and China as closely associated with the geo strategic direction has always been dominated by Indian designs. However, this move makes it so that China would be willing to counter Indian influence in the region, we have already seen that with the Chinese presence in Sri Lanka and possible defense deals with Bangladesh. This move places a further seriousness to the situation as China seems to be willing to be directly involved in conflicts of interests now.
Implications for Pakistan
This places Pakistan at an interesting cross-road here whereby it can do one thing it has done quite successfully in the past: be a bridge. The Chinese-US relations came into place with Pakistan acting as the bridge; here too it can replay that role and get other nations in South Asia to the table to the new center of power and tilt the balance of power in the region. Such a move, if taken correctly, can aid Pakistan economically by better trade deals and strengthen the CPEC project as well.
The countermoves
Over on the Indian side, they seem to have two options; either they engage with China more assertively and that would be done by involving having a greater influence over Afghanistan to place pressure on Pakistan and indirectly China. The other route would be increase influence over Iran and do achieve the same; however, Iran has a much more complicated geostrategic presence and doing so would hamper its next option, which may be more feasible in containing China.
The other option, would be to entail and encourage the US presence in the region by allowing them bases in India to counter the Chinese presence. However, this move would have its own implications; first of all, the US designs may not align with Indian designs because the US interests also entail other nations in the region who would automatically go towards China in case the US appears to be strengthening India. Secondly, the US would not be too fond of India investing in Iran and disturbing the Middle East’s balance of power against its ally KSA which is the natural counter of Iran. Furthermore, such a move would see KSA move towards aiding Pakistan to counter Iran and most importantly, it would hurt India’s image projection of a rising power which projects independence in its foreign policy.
Therefore, I think the more prudent choice would be option one; India can try to pressure Pakistan and therefore China via Afghanistan.
Implications for Pakistan
In such a scenario, it would be wise for Pakistan to improve its relationship with Afghanistan to curb any possibility of such an action. Afghanistan, geographically, stands to benefit from the CPEC project as it is a land locked state and Pakistan directly stands in between it and India. For the foreseeable future, Afghanistan would not seriously consider a forward stance as it needs to focus its security apparatus inwards.
Pakistan’s focus on its own economy and a revised deal with Afghanistan for trade movements through its territory would be a better option. This can be effective in securing a more stable region and take off the pressure of two fronts from Pakistan.
Instability in Pakistan
The third option that India has is to aid the militancy in Pakistan to try to make it more unstable via the support for insurgency in its northern regions and south western regions. This would keep the economic development in the region being curtailed by expenditure for Pakistan to secure the internal situation. This is another possible countermove available for India and given that the current government is quite open with its belligerence towards Pakistan then it is also a possibility that must be taken seriously.
Implications for Pakistan
For Pakistan the paramilitary presence in these regions increased before the current stand off so at least the nation stands well prepared for any such moves. However, it can extend the operations against militancy. In the longer run, this would be a heavy cost for the entire region because history has shown that such forces are chaos towards everyone as they are not rational players. In such a scenario, Pakistan needs to develop the civilian counter to possible insurgency by a much needed reform of the police force and political reforms in the regions. Moreover, such a scenario also needs to be catered by good pressure on the international forum of such Indian designs because these threats are an international concern and can move towards changing the perspective of the international community towards India as a ‘soft-power’. Such a direction would also curtail further US based support to the Indian position.
Conclusion
In any given scenario, Pakistan needs to take this time and focus inwards to fix internal issues which have bled the nation dry. A much needed economic reform and reorientation of the nation’s civil bureaucratic system much more seriously.
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