@Sarge Will start with addressing you. Allow me the leeway of knowing something about the topic that I write.
1. The Cold Start Doctrine. It is already beyond the concept and been a decade since enacted. I will assume you are a professional and a service member. If not, my apologies. However, assuming it, I will only ask you to do your research on why India removed concept of strike corps and holding corps and made it strike and pivot corps. You will get your answer. (I suspect you know it anyways).
CSD constitutes brigade sized armour/mechanised battle groups from pivot corps to be followed up by Strike Corps. The strategy is good. However, even if cantonments are placed right next to border or IBG's from Pivot corps make their way towards the border, amassing of forces on or near the border will be picked up.
I have mentioned before in my posts, that every formation of Army (indian and pakistani) is monitored by spies on ground living in enemy countries. Any transfer/movement/transit/significant convoy movement is immediately notified, in peace as well as war time. This vigilance increases during days of increasing tension or escalation and alerts.
To counter this reporting by spies, both armies utilise different methods.
1.The formation signs on military vehicles are covered up or washed off.
2. Civilian transport vehicles are brought in to transport troops and weapons through LOG Area Command.
3. Awkward timings for convoy movement are decided like 3 am in morning when any suspecting person keeping an eye on convoy can be easily identified. General population is expected to be asleep.
4. Role of weather is brought into play. Fog, mist and rain become allies.
5. Sign boards for formation HQ's are constantly changed.
6. MP's know the correct direction and destination only, the vehicle drivers are kept in the dark. MP's standing on different way points and check points guide the convoys.
and both Armies keep cooking up new ways.
2. Having said above, if offensive operations are carried out by the pivot corps, you know the breach will be achieved and you will require time to reinforce the area in order to reverse the same. The depth of any such breach will be less than that sufficient for you to consider employment of a nuclear warhead in tactical role.
Since you mentioned breach, lets have a look at areas where breach is high possibility. There are four main areas where IA CSD forces can attack Pakistan.
1.Southern Kashmir/Northern Punjab (Sialkot-Shakargarh-narowal Area).
Terrain is armour friendly upto an extent only, reasons:
1. Agricultural area with few water systems
2. Heavily fortified by infantry
Pakistan Army Formations already present in Area:
8th Infantry Division (44 tanks)
15th Infantry Division (44 tanks)
Independent Armoured Brigade Group (88 Tanks)
Total Tanks = 176
Reinforcement readily available :
6th Armoured Division (80 km from border)
(220 Tanks)
Reinforcement available for sector:
8th Independent Armoured Brigade Group (88 Tanks)
17th Infantry Division (partly mechanised to support 6th Armoured Div) (44 Tanks)
37 Infantry Division (44 Tanks)
Independent Armoured Brigade (XI Corps, Nowshera) (44 tanks)
Total tanks = 220
An IA CSD thrust here will be blocked immediately on the border and use of NASR is not possible. 6th Armoured Division can take on the offensive inside India or kept reserve to counter IA strike Corps.
Grand total (tanks) = 600 +
Still lesser than what IA will throw in this sector but numbers are good enough to cover ground.
2. Central Punjab/Lahore (Lahore-kasur-Okara Area)
Terrain is not armour friendly:
1. Heavy agricultural area
2. Lots and lots of nullahs, bund systems, mines, removable bridges, many lines of defence.
3. Limited room of manoeuvring for armoured forces.
Pakistan Army Formations already present in Area:
10th Infantry Division (44 tanks)
11th Infantry Division (partly mechanised) (44 tanks)
14th Infantry Division (partly mechanised to support 1st Armoured Div) (44 tanks)
40th Infantry Division (44 tanks)
Independent Infantry Brigade
Independent Armoured Brigade Group (88 tanks)
Total Tanks = 264
Reinforcement readily available :
2nd Artillery Division (80 km from border)
Reinforcement available for sector:
1st Armoured Division
(220 Tanks)
An IA CSD thrust here will be blocked immediately on the border and use of NASR is not possible.
Grand total (Tanks) = 484
Still lesser than what IA will throw in this sector but numbers are good enough to cover ground.
3. Southern Punjab (Bahawalnagar- Fort Abbas- Rahim yar Khan Area)
This area is breach-able by IA CSD. Terrain is armour friendly , reasons:
1. very less Agricultural area
2. Lots of desert wasteland
Pakistan Army Formations already present in Area:
26th mechanized Division (44 tanks)
35th Infantry Division (44 Tanks)
Independent Infantry Brigade
Probable : Independent Armoured Brigade Group (88 tanks)
Reinforcement readily available :
None.
Reinforcement available for sector:
None. 1st Armoured Division can be directed to this sector if threatened.
An IA CSD thrust can succeed in this sector and use of NASR is probable in this sector.
Grand Total (Tanks) = 176 minus (1st Armoured Div)
Lesser than what IA will throw in this sector but ground cannot be covered by PA with these numbers.
4.
Sindh (South-eastern Desert Area)
The breach is achievable in desert area, in Rajasthan desert. Terrain is armour friendly , reasons:
1. Very less Agricultural area
2. Lots of desert wasteland
3. Lots of room for manoeuvring by IA armour and bypassing PA strong points.
Pakistan Army Formations already present in Area:
16th Infantry Division (44 tanks)
18th Infantry Division (44 tanks)
Independent Armoured Brigade Group (88 tanks)
Total tanks = 176
Reinforcement readily available :
25 Mechanised Division (44 tanks)
Independent Infantry Brigade
Total tanks = 44
Reinforcement available for sector:
33rd Infantry Division (44 tanks)
41st Infantry Division (44 tanks)
Independent Armoured Brigade Group (88 tanks)
Total tanks = 176
An IA CSD thrust can succeed in this sector and use of NASR is certain in this sector.
Grand Total (tanks) = 396
Lesser than what IA will throw in this sector but ground cannot be covered by PA with these numbers.
There is no use saying that it will take time and SOP's and permissions to bring up nuclear weapon to battlefield, since an ordinary civilian like myself can bring up this analysis, the PA commanders already know where NASR will be used and would have brought it up already to threatened sectors. Chain of Command would already have been formed and SOP's formulated to take minimum time and permission for use.
3. You yourself have been accurately telling about the spread of the attacking armour. If I was to say the inter-se gap between two vehicles will be more than 600-700 m (not only due to increased urbanisation but also to negate a potential nuclear strike) you would agree that the figures for nukes of appropriate yield required to blunt an armoured brigade will be significantly high. It won't be a matter of a couple of nukes. So, and I ask you to consider it carefully, with your present estimated holding and your capacity of production of fissile material, do you honestly think that NASR is something we factor into our calculations?
An armoured attack with vehicle spacing of 700m eliminates its offensive power and makes it easy prey for defensive forces to pick them out without getting harassed from retaliatory fire from nearby units. Light 4X4 armed with ATGM will have a field day through ambushing lone tanks.. See, NASR has limited options for Indian Armour commanders.
The probability of use of of NASR is much more than other nuclear weapons so the resources will be diverted towards NASR. Secondly, PA has made up its mind to use NASR but striking Indian population or inside India with nuclear weapons depends upon situation with very slim chances of use. Thirdly, Pakistan already holds a huge arsenal of nuclear weapons for nuclear strike into India, so the fissile material will be spared for NASR.
4. Your permission for strike will be routed only through NCA with COAS giving a green light in consultation with President and PM. So the flexibility in employment of the same is severely limited even if you have the warhead in your hand.
Replied it above in very simple terms.
That is all I want to say as of now. Why we won't attack you, is something that I have discussed a number of times in different threads. Its got more to do with and increased convergence of interests in fighting the spread of terror than anything else. That, we leave for another day.
Fine by me.
@Sarge Excellent post.
However, want to draw your attention quickly on my statement which you missed
I am not going into the equipment, but the initial success of Rommel can clearly be attributed to:
Source:
https://defence.pk/threads/obsessed-with-nasr.443009/page-7#ixzz4H2mWI8Dw
When I made the statement, it was for the initial success in stabilisation of the front in face of the British onslaught and the collapse of failing Italian armies in Libya and Tunisia.
Will get into a detailed discussion somewhere else with you on this topic. But if you read, the mandate of Rommel was to protect Tripoli .. and he was able to check the advances of British Forces (and the Tobruk incident comes into play).
I will quote:
His strategic blunder failed for two reasons - he failed to bring decisive victory, and it added another 700 miles to his already overextended line of communication. From February to May. Rommel and his Italian allies received a total of 325.000 tons of supplies. or 45.000 more than current consumption, but he was unable to bridge the enormous gap from Tripoli to the front. so his supplies piled up on the wharves while shortages arose In the front line. The Axis never solved the logistics problems due to Rommel's persistence in undertaking operations which were not logistically feasible. He never seemed to want to take the time to build up his advance bases prior to kicking off an operation.
It's an extract from 'British and German Logistics Support During The World War II North Africa Campaign' by Lieutenant Colonel John D Caviggia
You will have to look up a link if available ....
The contention of manpower and logistics was not an issue till as such time Rommel did not overlook his own mandate. His mandate was supported by the resources given, He simply did not have the resources to undertake what he did with the resources and the developing situation (namely the failure of German invasion in Battle of Britain and opening of Eastern Front by crossing Brest-Litovsk line by Germans, depriving him of much needed effort)
Pertinent to note is the British LOCs. Difference was the tendency of the latter to consolidate and fight whereas the former paid scant regards to logistics.
We will end up derailing this thread. So will carry on at some other opportune time and thread.
Thanks for your posts.
yeah better safe than sorry,no point getting banned over de-railing thread, do tag me please if you come across any such discussion. Thanks