A toast to India and three cheers for Pak
Delhi jubilant but neighbour scores with Obama call, China cash & Russian military deal
Nov. 22: Even as hurried toasts were proposed last night in south Delhi’s upscale drawing rooms following a surprise prime-time announcement about Barack Obama’s second coming to India and BJP ministers smugly sat back in Lutyens Delhi marvelling over another diplomatic coup by their government, the ground quietly shifted from under the feet of Narendra Modi, the author of what could be the biggest transformation in Indian strategic thinking in many decades.
Those who were celebrating the Prime Minister’s second “conquest” of America in as many months did not know on Friday night that the US President had first telephoned Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif before the White House announced Obama’s decision to accept Modi’s invitation to be chief guest at next year’s Republic Day celebrations.
The few on Raisina Hill, the fountainhead of Modi’s authority, who knew that Obama had put through his call to Sharif decided that it was expedient to ignore the harsh reality of how much the US and Pakistan are joined at the hip. Acknowledging it would have poured cold water on the night’s celebratory mood.
Obama’s call to Sharif from Air Force One, the presidential jet, on its way from Washington to Las Vegas was not the only subterranean tremor that shifted the ground from under Modi’s feet on a night that was to be triumphantly his.
Almost at the very moment that Modi tweeted Obama’s January 26 plans, China leaked details of how it intends to invest $45.6 billion in Pakistan between now and 2020. Given the size of Pakistan’s economy and its capacity to absorb investments, the amount that China is investing in Pakistan following Sharif’s visit to Beijing a few days ago is proportionately equal to at least $200 billion if such funds were to have been negotiated with an economy of India’s size and scope.
In one sweep, it throws out of the window the spin being orchestrated by the NDA government that Islamabad is isolated and that New Delhi will resume its bilateral talks with Pakistan only from a position of superior strength and solely on India’s terms.
The worst news for India’s security was not either of these discomfiting developments. For the first time since Pakistan was born and New Delhi and Moscow swore with their hands on each other’s hearts to stand together through times good and bad,
Russia signed a military cooperation agreement with the army establishment in Rawalpindi on Thursday.
Normally, just the news that Russia’s defence minister had paid a visit to Pakistan for the very first time when Moscow’s preferred partner was always New Delhi ought to have triggered an overkill of diplomatic activity in South Block, where the ministry of external affairs and the Prime Minister’s Office are located.
Such visits and plans for weapons sales to Pakistan by Russia had been nixed by successive Indian governments in the past. But the present dispensation led by the BJP either did not think it was necessary to do anything or they failed in their effort.
Either way, such is the excitement in New Delhi over Obama’s plans that everything else is dangerously and complacently on the backburner.
White House spokesperson Eric Schultz confirmed that the President did call Sharif from Air Force One. But beyond the nicety that the leaders talked about advancing “shared interests in a stable, secure, and prosperous Pakistan and region”, the spokesperson would say little more.
The use of the word “region” was a giveaway, however. In Islamabad, the foreign ministry was more specific. In a statement, the ministry said: “President Obama informed the Prime Minister of his forthcoming visit to India.”
Sharif flagged the recent visit by Afghanistan’s new President, Ashraf Ghani, to Islamabad as proof of Pakistan’s sincerity in stabilising Kabul after the upcoming US withdrawal from a war that began 13 years ago. “The US President appreciated the Prime Minister’s efforts.”
The spin in New Delhi tonight, once Obama’s call to Sharif became known, was that Islamabad was panicking over Modi’s January 26 invitation to the White House and that Pakistan was banking on America to bail it out on Kashmir.
Sources in Washington said Obama was relieved that Sharif did not put him in a spot by asking him to mediate on Kashmir or on relations with India, as was Islamabad’s past practice. Public statements corroborate that claim.
It is clear from the foreign ministry’s statement that Sharif scored brownie points with America by being reasonable and asking only for “the resumption of bilateral dialogue, the onus (for which) is on India to create a conducive environment.... President Obama expressed his understanding for our position.”
Sharif asked Obama to stress on the Indian leadership that an “early resolution (of the Kashmir dispute) would bring enduring peace, stability and economic cooperation to Asia”. It is clear that the overall emphasis by Sharif was on “peace and prosperity in South Asia”. He did not rail at New Delhi at any point.
Apart from the signing of a military cooperation agreement, what ought to worry the Modi government is that the visiting Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, “appreciated the skill and expertise of Pakistani armed forces in fighting the war against terrorism”, a statement said.
At a time when India is trying to portray Pakistan as the fountainhead of terrorism, this approach represents a huge strategic shift by Moscow on terrorism in South Asia.
“The world community not only praises but wants to do business with Pakistan now,” Shoigu was quoted as saying in Islamabad. He also extolled Pakistan’s defence production capacity.
A toast to India and three cheers for Pak
