Obama and Sharif to Discuss US-Pakistan Civilian Nuclear Deal?

[RiazHaq]

Haq's Musings: US-Pakistan Civilian Nuclear Deal On Obama-Sharif Summit Agenda?

"The Pakistani establishment, as we saw in 1998 with the nuclear test, does not view assistance -- even sizable assistance to their own entities -- as a trade-off for national security vis-a-vis India". US Ambassador Anne Patterson, September 23, 2009


Having failed to persuade, intimidate, bribe and sanction Pakistan to abandon itsnuclear weapons program, there are credible reports that Washington is now ready to accept Pakistan as a legitimate nuclear weapons state in exchange for limiting therange of the country's ballistic missiles.

Washington is abuzz with the news of major think tank analyses and credible media reports indicating that the October 22, 2015 Obama-Sharif summit agenda includes US-Pakistan civilian nuclear deal along the lines of India-US civilian nuclear deal.



According to a Washington Postreport, the deal with Pakistan centers around a civilian nuclear agreement similar to the one the United States arrived at with India, in exchange for a Pakistani commitment that would "restrict its nuclear program to weapons and delivery systems that are appropriate to its actual defense needs against India's nuclear threat."

As part of such a deal, the United States will support an eventual waiver for Pakistan by the 48-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group, of which the United States is a member. At U.S. urging, that group agreed to exempt India from rules that banned nuclear trade with countries that evaded the Non-Proliferation Treaty. This so-called “civil nuclear agreement” allowed India partial entry into the club of nuclear powers, in exchange for its willingness to apply International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards to its civilian program, according to the Washington Post's veteran columnist David Ignatius.

Prior to the Washington Post report, the Washington-based Stimson Center and the Carnegie Endowment think tanks published a 20,000-word essay on Pakistan’s nuclear program and diplomatic ambitions last week. Written by Toby Dalton and Michael Krepon and titled "Nuclear Mainstream", it recommends Pakistan to agree to meet five conditions for its nuclear mainstreaming:

(1) Shift from the full spectrum deterrence to strategic deterrence

(2) Limit production of tactical weapons or short range delivery weapons

3) Become amenable to talks on the fissile material cut off treaty (FMCT)

4) Delineate civil and military nuclear programs

5) Sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)


Given Pakistan's growing energy needs, the country will most likely engage with the United States to try and get a stamp of legitimacy from the NSG. However, the Washington Posts's Ignatius believes that such "negotiations would be slow and difficult, and it's not clear that Islamabad would be willing to accept the limitations that would be required." Meanwhile, the issue is being discussed quietly in the run-up to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's visit to Washington on October 22.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

US Must Accept Pakistan as Legitimate Nuclear Weapons State

Pakistan's Shaheen 3 Can Hit Deep Inside India and Israel

India-US Civilian Nuclear Deal

Eating Grass: The Making of the Pakistani Bomb

Gen Kidwai on Pakistan 2nd Strike Capability and Nuclear Triad

India's Israel Envy: What If Modi Attacks Pakistan?



Haq's Musings: US-Pakistan Civilian Nuclear Deal On Obama-Sharif Summit Agenda?

 

[Sipahi]

One can just laugh on Indian diplomacy and their claim to isolate Pakistan in the world.

1) First China and now US giving us a Civil Nuclear deal.

2) Russia, US and China giving us Military equipments and we are signing accord with turkey for military industry.

In short, Pakistan is getting strong day in and day out and India is living in a delusion.

@Viper0011. Your thoughts.

 

[Styx]

article in the Times of India

in exchange for a Pakistani commitment that would "restrict its nuclear program and weapons and delivery systems appropriate to its actual defence needs against Indias nuclear threat"

so no longer range missiles, which is fair enough.

 

[Vortex]

Pakistan should never accept any kind of limitation on its defense matters.

 

[Viper0011.]

One can just laugh on Indian diplomacy and their claim to isolate Pakistan in the world.

1) First China and now US giving us a Civil Nuclear deal.

2) Russia, US and China giving us Military equipments and we are signing accord with turkey for military industry.

In short, Pakistan is getting strong day in and day out and India is living in a delusion.

@Viper0011. Your thoughts.

If you see your history, the U.S. And Pakistan go way back to like 60-70 years. In the past 20 years, the biggest issues that the U.S. had, were related to terrorism, dictatorship and concerns about Pak flash lights.

These issues have been taken care of. The Zarb-e-Azb is going on, cleaning up Pakistan's name from the list as the Pak army is cleaning up the mess of terrorism, the civilian government is strong (and much stronger as of today, despite IK's crazy fantasy stories), no "general", irrespective of the Godly treatment they get in Pakistan, is going to Washington to "cut a deal with the U.S." on their own (the Americans hate a general dealing with them as they look down upon that).

So now, the deals are happening between a civilian business minded government who's already done a lot of good work to grow Pakistan, improved credit rating, better financial stability and all. It makes sense to do business with a politically stable (it's time that IK lets his violent tactics go for the country), one of the fastest growing economies with high growth rate. Pakistan used to be considered a liability in Washington till 3 years ago,now it's looked at as a growing market for American nuke plants, American jets and other products worth billions. So business and mutual understanding are forming a better bond between the two. This is tremendous progress in 3 years.

I think it's time that Pakistani started to play as a team, instead of trying to cut the hands doing the work. The IK violent show needs to end, the intensity needs to go away and a mature IK needs to emerge, who can still point out issues, but not destroying the entire next Pskistani generation with violent political process.

There are many more things on the table than just the civil power deal!!

 

[wiseone2]

If you see your history, the U.S. And Pakistan go way back to like 60-70 years. In the past 20 years, the biggest issues that the U.S. had, were related to terrorism, dictatorship and concerns about Pak flash lights.

These issues have been taken care of. The Zarb-e-Azb is going on, cleaning up Pakistan's name from the list as the Pak army is cleaning up the mess of terrorism, the civilian government is strong (and much stronger as of today, despite IK's crazy fantasy stories), no "general", irrespective of the Godly treatment they get in Pakistan, is going to Washington to "cut a deal with the U.S." on their own (the Americans hate a general dealing with them as they look down upon that).

So now, the deals are happening between a civilian business minded government who's already done a lot of good work to grow Pakistan, improved credit rating, better financial stability and all. It makes sense to do business with a politically stable (it's time that IK lets his violent tactics go for the country), one of the fastest growing economies with high growth rate. Pakistan used to be considered a liability in Washington till 3 years ago,now it's looked at as a growing market for American nuke plants, American jets and other products worth billions. So business and mutual understanding are forming a better bond between the two. This is tremendous progress in 3 years.

I think it's time that Pakistani started to play as a team, instead of trying to cut the hands doing the work. The IK violent show needs to end, the intensity needs to go away and a mature IK needs to emerge, who can still point out issues, but not destroying the entire next Pskistani generation with violent political process.

There are many more things on the table than just the civil power deal!!

your close ties with China will an issue

paying for American nuke plants, American jets and other products - with whose money ??

 

[kamrananvaar]

Its a bum deal that should be avoided.

 

[I S I]

Experts will discuss technical matters. Nawaz sharif only knows about Nihari & biryani.

 

[ZYXW]

Experts will discuss technical matters. Nawaz sharif only knows about Nihari & biryani.

great now I am hungry....

 

[Viper0011.]

your close ties with China will an issue

paying for American nuke plants, American jets and other products - with whose money ??

You have a huge debt problem in India. Pakistan can afford more debt too. The selling party doesn't care where the money came from, as long as it's there, just like in India's case, where even FDI numbers are "cooked" to include people's salaries lol

Pakistan is a growing economy now, everyone will do business with them. Get ready for some serious competition in high tech, medical and other highly paid labor. If Pakistan can maintain her political stability, the Pakistan of 2020 will be a LOT different than the Pakistan you knew in 2013!!!

 

[cloud4000]

One can just laugh on Indian diplomacy and their claim to isolate Pakistan in the world.

1) First China and now US giving us a Civil Nuclear deal.

2) Russia, US and China giving us Military equipments and we are signing accord with turkey for military industry.

In short, Pakistan is getting strong day in and day out and India is living in a delusion.

@Viper0011. Your thoughts.

Pakistan has been saying its getting stronger every year, but it has yet to turn the corner. Still relying on IMF loans to finance its expenses and loan obligations.

For all of Pakistan's ability to "get" weapons and an elusive civil nuclear deal wit US, it suffers from severe structural problems in its economy.

 

[RiazHaq]

#US-#Pakistan nuclear deal: #India should see #America is no friend US-Pakistan nuclear deal: Why India should see America is no friend … via @dailyo_

The US has until now differentiated India’s case from that of Pakistan, declaring at various times that Pakistan was not eligible for an India-like deal. But the US has not used language that categorically ruled out a deal, which might explain why Pakistan has persevered in seeking one despite its well established delinquency in nuclear matters. In its calculation the great forbearance the US has historically shown towards Pakistan’s conduct in nuclear matters leaves open the possibility of securing a nuclear deal from the US to obtain parity with India.

The US, to recall, has not applied its nonproliferation laws to disrupt the long-standing China-Pakistan nuclear and missile nexus. Even now it has not opposed China’s decision to set up addition nuclear power plants in Pakistan in violation of its NSG commitments. It prevented the full exposure of the involvement of the Pakistani civil and military authorities in the AQ Khan proliferation scandal.

Disruptive tactics

It has tolerated Pakistan’s disruptive tactics at Geneva on fissile material control negotiations. While expressing concern about South Asia being a nuclear flashpoint, it has not rebuked Pakistan for periodically threatening India with nuclear arms. The US government has officially ignored American reports that Pakistan is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal to potentially become the third largest holder of nuclear weapons. Pakistan has been spared sanctions that the US has robustly imposed on Iran and even Russia.

The US’s over-indulgence of Pakistan is difficult to explain. Pakistan’s terrorist affiliations are well known. The US itself has been a victim of these on its own soil and in Afghanistan. Six of its nationals were killed in the Mumbai terrorist carnage in 2008. Many Pakistanbased jihadi groups are on the UN list of terrorist entities. Osama bin Laden was given refuge in Pakistan. India has long argued that its nuclear capability gave Pakistan a sense of immunity in conducting terrorist acts against us, without the US taking cognisance of this fact and acting to curb Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and its irresponsible nuclear threats, not as a gesture to us but in pursuance of its own nonproliferation commitments.

According to the Washington Post report, the underlying US reasoning for a nuclear deal to Pakistan is astonishing. In return for an NSG waiver, Pakistan will be asked to restrict its nuclear programme to weapons and delivery systems that are appropriate to its actual defence needs against India’s nuclear threat, and not to deploy missiles beyond a certain range.

Nuclear threat

This implies that India poses a nuclear threat to Pakistan — not the other way round — and that Pakistan is justified in possessing weapons and delivery systems to counter India. In other words, India’s security is not of concern to the US, despite our so-called strategic partnership. The US is willing to legitimise Pakistan’s nuclear and delivery capabilities so long as India alone is the target. Pakistan has always maintained that its nuclear and delivery capability is India centric. It has sought an India-Pakistan strategic balance, omitting from the equation the China factor that India has to contend with. China, we know, opposes India’s NSG entry without Pakistan. It seems the US might be willing to accommodate both China and Pakistan if the latter limited its nuclear threat to India. Why the US would want to offer a nuclear deal to Sharif when the real reins of power in Pakistan are in the hands of army chief General Raheel Sharif and Pakistan’s nuclear programme is under military, not civilian, control, is puzzling.

 

[RiazHaq]

Strategic Insights from #India: The big power of #Pakistan's little Nasr tactical nuclear missile. #USA The big power of little Nasr - TOI Blogs …

Aah, you little beauty, you little Nasr, you have finally brought two major powers to their knees, and that too without firing a single shot.
Out there in the US, there is real consternation that this micro-mini Pakistani tactical nuke will fall into the hands of jihadis who would then use it against the American mainland. Washington has spent hundreds of millions of dollars in securing Pakistan’s big, strategic nukes but to the Nasr it has no answers. Why?
Because the Nasr is a javelin-like structure, deployed in the battlefield against tanks, and under the operational command of a brigadier. Think of how many brigadiers there are in Pakistan’s seven hundred thousand-strong army— two hundred, three hundred, five hundred— and that would be the number of tiny Nasrs floating about in the battlefield.

-------

On bended knees, America is imploring Pakistan to get rid of the Nasrs. But Pakistan must have its pound of flesh. Washington is abuzz with a civilian nuclear deal for the Pakistanis. The contours are faint but it seems to involve access to nuclear technology, as well as membership of the nuclear suppliers group, a facility not yet afforded India.
Pakistan insists that the Nasrs are safe and are only for use against India were the latter to implement its Cold Start Doctrine: a rapid ingress of armoured forces into Pakistan, the destruction of a few jihadi camps, and then a steep withdrawal back into India. But so high is the risk associated with a potential leak of the Nasr, that Washington has put pressure on India to talk to Pakistan about Kashmir.
An India that was only willing to talk terror with Pakistan has within the space of a couple of weeks turned turtle to not only talk Kashmir but all aspects of the relationship. Oh, how the Pakistani military must be gloating.

 

[wiseone2]

Strategic Insights from #India: The big power of #Pakistan's little Nasr tactical nuclear missile. #USA The big power of little Nasr - TOI Blogs …

Aah, you little beauty, you little Nasr, you have finally brought two major powers to their knees, and that too without firing a single shot.
Out there in the US, there is real consternation that this micro-mini Pakistani tactical nuke will fall into the hands of jihadis who would then use it against the American mainland. Washington has spent hundreds of millions of dollars in securing Pakistan’s big, strategic nukes but to the Nasr it has no answers. Why?
Because the Nasr is a javelin-like structure, deployed in the battlefield against tanks, and under the operational command of a brigadier. Think of how many brigadiers there are in Pakistan’s seven hundred thousand-strong army— two hundred, three hundred, five hundred— and that would be the number of tiny Nasrs floating about in the battlefield.

-------

On bended knees, America is imploring Pakistan to get rid of the Nasrs. But Pakistan must have its pound of flesh. Washington is abuzz with a civilian nuclear deal for the Pakistanis. The contours are faint but it seems to involve access to nuclear technology, as well as membership of the nuclear suppliers group, a facility not yet afforded India.
Pakistan insists that the Nasrs are safe and are only for use against India were the latter to implement its Cold Start Doctrine: a rapid ingress of armoured forces into Pakistan, the destruction of a few jihadi camps, and then a steep withdrawal back into India. But so high is the risk associated with a potential leak of the Nasr, that Washington has put pressure on India to talk to Pakistan about Kashmir.
An India that was only willing to talk terror with Pakistan has within the space of a couple of weeks turned turtle to not only talk Kashmir but all aspects of the relationship. Oh, how the Pakistani military must be gloating.

Pakistani military is not getting an inch of Kashmir from India. I am not sure what all this posturing is about
If Nasr is such a great weapon start a war

the pakistani army is a paper tiger. Send a few jihadis here or there. try starting a war with someone other than the MQM