"...the US/NATO has nothing to show in terms of tangible progress towards a stable self-sustaining Afghan state, nor any realistic roadmap that might offer policies and strategy
This is correct and it's likely up to America to devise such a policy. The problem there remains a multi-national board of players that requires input to the design and, consequently, a likely muted, diffuse product which is poorly understood by all and incoherantly and haphazardly implemented. Forty-one nations to be exact, a U.N. membership which provides the mandate, and the GoA all demanding a say.
We carry the largest profile and our own remembered
raison d'etre but the continuing friction associated with multi-national peacekeeping plays heavily into happenings across your western border. I don't know how or when that might change.
I don't believe that a multi-national approach will be abandoned either. This might be good, though, despite the attendant friction. Afghanistan, for all it's corruption and brutality, engenders a special place in the hearts of westerners it seems. Certainly there seems a difference with Americans as compared to, say, Iraq.
"Pakistan is keeping its options open because she has little faith that NATO/US will be in Afghanistan for as long as it takes, or invest the resources that it takes to achieve the end goals as understood currently."
You always know the beginning of a project. You usually know the end of a project. You never know where the middle of a project is until you reach the end.
We've been in Afghanistan seven years now. If we're there forty years I imagine that we'll still hear and read about how America once abandoned our "obligations" and didn't show the patience/fortitude to see the task through. But then you say this-
"...that attempt to significantly jar the dynamics in Afghanistan and the region out of the status quo rut we find them in."
Now who's the impatient one? Sorry but the functional requirements of rehabilitation which exist for FATA extend to Afghanistan in spades. So whatever timeframe you envision for FATA's rehabilitation can be used to extrapolate a reasonable but larger time for Afghanistan. That would be the case very fairly even without an insurgency. The endemic crime and corruption, largely associated with opium, precedes ALL. That alone will represent a seismic shift in acculturalization to remove and may be a required component of success.
Then there must be some cultural reconciliation across ethnic, tribal, and even religious lines. If once possessing a degree of harmony, Afghanistan is fractured along rather stark lines which only promote confrontation and very little cooperation. After thirty years of war there are some very hard feelings all the way around.
Institutions remain smashed-most notably public health and education. Infrastructure was once non-existant and is now worse. You get the drift. Oh! And an insurgency of some note. Believe it or not but NATO is hardly trying to replicate the Soviet model of quelling insurrection.
Fifty years read well? That's what I'm thinking.
My point is this- your need for immediate improvement isn't likely to happen.
For the near term, I'd look to support the Afghani elections next year in every way possible while getting out the pashtu vote. Funny enough, if the taliban had the pashtu interests at heart and a solid platform they might be able to sweep into power. It says much about how they assess their electoral chances to note their vehement opposition to voter registration.
S-2's Narcotics Control Policy- buy the dope direct from the farmer at above market prices. Create teams of U.N.O.D.C./ISAF/GoA that make the purchases at the farmer's door and convoy the drug to the nearest ISAF facility for destruction or transfer to commercial medicinal markets.
Arm the farmer to protect his crop. His price is better with NATO but he must deliver product. The farmer mustn't allow his crop to be stolen and likely won't if prices are sufficiently high. This policy of buying from and arming the farmer attacks the distribution networks and ALL involved above the farmer- government crook, taliban convoy commander, narco drug lab syndicates, etc. Dare the afghan farmer to turn the nation into one big poppy field just so long as ISAF is the customer and the product is sold above the prevailing rate.
Oh! And offer them expertise on saffron. Yup- grow AND package it so that the azzholes in Italy and Spain don't triple the markup for some packaging. Huge legit money and the Iranians are into it. Herat is starting to get it too.
Might drive the price of a good plate of
paella down.