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PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
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Behind Analysts Cool Demeanor, Deep Anxiety Over American Policy
By MARK MAZZETTI, December 26, 2008 , NY Times
BRUCE RIEDEL was a 28-year-old Middle East analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency on Oct. 6, 1981, the day a band of gunmen assassinated President Anwar el-Sadat of Egypt during a military parade in Cairo. He retired from the C.I.A. in 2006 after 29 years, and no longer has access to the nations most sensitive information. But his career as an analyst is far from over. As an influential terrorism adviser on President-elect Barack Obamas transition team, he dispenses counsel to the administration-in-waiting on some of the thorniest problems it will face: as varied as the hunt for Al Qaedas senior leaders like Mr. Zawahri, the likelihood of another attack on American soil, and how to stave off nuclear Armageddon between India and Pakistan.
Mr. Riedel is one of a chorus of terrorism experts who see the terrorist networks base in the mountains of Pakistan as Americas greatest threat, and perhaps the biggest problem facing Mr. Obamas new team. He speaks angrily about what he calls a savvy campaign by Pakistans government under President Pervez Musharraf to fleece Washington for billions of dollars even as it allowed Al Qaeda to regroup in Pakistans tribal lands.
We had a partner that was double-dealing us, he said during an interview in his house in a Washington suburb. Anyone can be snookered and double-dealt. But after six years you have to start to figure it out.
MR. RIEDEL struggles at times to lay out a path for the president-elect on Pakistan the foreign policy headache he calls the hardest part of this whole thing that is vastly different from the course the Bush administration has charted in recent months. For example, he believes that the C.I.A.s campaign of airstrikes using remotely controlled Predator aircraft should continue if there is solid evidence about the whereabouts of militant leaders inside Pakistan.
Washington must approach Pakistan with a subtle and deft touch, he said, and strengthen the civilian government of President Asif Ali Zardari, the husband of Benazir Bhutto, the slain former prime minister, to act as a counterweight to Pakistans military and intelligence apparatus, which still dominates Pakistans political life.
Winning over the generals, Mr. Riedel said, could require a tough-love approach: overhauling military aid to Pakistan and cutting sales of the big-ticket weapons the country has used to keep pace with its archrival, India. Instead, he argues, the United States should be providing equipment like helicopters and night-vision goggles to help Pakistans military navigate the mountain passes where militants have established their base.
It was Washingtons too cozy relationship with Mr. Musharrafs military government, he argues, that fueled the intense hatred for the United States in Pakistan. He cites polls that more Pakistanis blame the United States than either India or Al Qaeda for the recent surge of violence in the country.
Today, however, he is in lockstep with his former C.I.A. colleagues on at least one matter: the necessity for Pakistans pre-eminent spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence, to sever its longstanding ties to militants operating in Pakistans tribal areas. These are ties the Bush administration never found a way to break, as the ISI has used the militants as a proxy force there for decades. And they will not be broken, Mr. Riedel said, until Pakistans generals and spy agencies acknowledge what Pakistans president learned only through heartbreak that the struggle against Al Qaeda and its ilk is their war as much as it is Americas.
Zardari knows its his war, because he buried his wife, he said. That tragedy is also an opportunity.
____________________________
This ex-CIA officer, Bruce Riedel, is purportedly one of Obama's chief advisers on WoT issues.
By MARK MAZZETTI, December 26, 2008 , NY Times
BRUCE RIEDEL was a 28-year-old Middle East analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency on Oct. 6, 1981, the day a band of gunmen assassinated President Anwar el-Sadat of Egypt during a military parade in Cairo. He retired from the C.I.A. in 2006 after 29 years, and no longer has access to the nations most sensitive information. But his career as an analyst is far from over. As an influential terrorism adviser on President-elect Barack Obamas transition team, he dispenses counsel to the administration-in-waiting on some of the thorniest problems it will face: as varied as the hunt for Al Qaedas senior leaders like Mr. Zawahri, the likelihood of another attack on American soil, and how to stave off nuclear Armageddon between India and Pakistan.
Mr. Riedel is one of a chorus of terrorism experts who see the terrorist networks base in the mountains of Pakistan as Americas greatest threat, and perhaps the biggest problem facing Mr. Obamas new team. He speaks angrily about what he calls a savvy campaign by Pakistans government under President Pervez Musharraf to fleece Washington for billions of dollars even as it allowed Al Qaeda to regroup in Pakistans tribal lands.
We had a partner that was double-dealing us, he said during an interview in his house in a Washington suburb. Anyone can be snookered and double-dealt. But after six years you have to start to figure it out.
MR. RIEDEL struggles at times to lay out a path for the president-elect on Pakistan the foreign policy headache he calls the hardest part of this whole thing that is vastly different from the course the Bush administration has charted in recent months. For example, he believes that the C.I.A.s campaign of airstrikes using remotely controlled Predator aircraft should continue if there is solid evidence about the whereabouts of militant leaders inside Pakistan.
Washington must approach Pakistan with a subtle and deft touch, he said, and strengthen the civilian government of President Asif Ali Zardari, the husband of Benazir Bhutto, the slain former prime minister, to act as a counterweight to Pakistans military and intelligence apparatus, which still dominates Pakistans political life.
Winning over the generals, Mr. Riedel said, could require a tough-love approach: overhauling military aid to Pakistan and cutting sales of the big-ticket weapons the country has used to keep pace with its archrival, India. Instead, he argues, the United States should be providing equipment like helicopters and night-vision goggles to help Pakistans military navigate the mountain passes where militants have established their base.
It was Washingtons too cozy relationship with Mr. Musharrafs military government, he argues, that fueled the intense hatred for the United States in Pakistan. He cites polls that more Pakistanis blame the United States than either India or Al Qaeda for the recent surge of violence in the country.
Today, however, he is in lockstep with his former C.I.A. colleagues on at least one matter: the necessity for Pakistans pre-eminent spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence, to sever its longstanding ties to militants operating in Pakistans tribal areas. These are ties the Bush administration never found a way to break, as the ISI has used the militants as a proxy force there for decades. And they will not be broken, Mr. Riedel said, until Pakistans generals and spy agencies acknowledge what Pakistans president learned only through heartbreak that the struggle against Al Qaeda and its ilk is their war as much as it is Americas.
Zardari knows its his war, because he buried his wife, he said. That tragedy is also an opportunity.
____________________________
This ex-CIA officer, Bruce Riedel, is purportedly one of Obama's chief advisers on WoT issues.
