India’s Anti-China suicide mission at the NSG | Pakistan Patriot
India’s suicidal Charge of the Light Brigade is as futile as Don Quixote’s useless attack on the windmills. “It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury–signifying nothing.” It is pedagogical to note the Chinese response to the Bharati noise.
“I think we should abolish the NSG,”
“Every country whether an NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) member or not, is entitled to peaceful use of nuclear energy and international cooperation for it. It’s like a human right.” Shen Dingli, Executive Dean of the Institute of International Relations at Fudan University in Shanghai.
Professor Shen Dingli and his colleagues established the area of “Indian studies” and are the leading Indologists in China. Dingli and his team are very influential in Chinese policy towards Pakistan. He fully favors the Nuclear deal with Pakistan and over rules the Bharati objections. Professor Dingli recently (April 2010) heard Mrs Nirupama Rao in Beijing where she was pushing for the Bharati agenda in Beijing. However the sum and substance of the Chinese policy towards Bharat remains the same–suspicion and guarded defense. China already sells tens of billions of Dollars of toys and trinkets to Bharat (which Bharat is incapable of making) and while Beijing is ready to sell billions more, Beijing is not ready to compromise its strategic interests on the alter of a few Dollars.
For the Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG) the China-Pakistan Civilian Nuclear deal elicits as much interest as a yawn. In fact the NSG did take a huge yawn when the Chinese informed them that they would continue to build the C-3 and C-4 nuclear reactors at Chasma–part of Sino-Pakistani Civilian Nuclear deal signed before the Indo-American Nuclear deal and before China became a member of the NSG. The Chinese clout at the NSG was self-evident. Neither the Austrians, nor the New Zelanders dared to speak up against the Chinese plans. Even the US was quiet.
T.P. Sreeniviasan laments this in an article in the Wall Street Journal. Non-nuclear New Zealand was an unusual chairman to guide the 46 nuclear bigwigs at the contentious meeting of the Nuclear Suppliers Groups this weekend in Christchurch. An army of nonproliferation enthusiasts descended on the event to press for nuclear-trade guidelines to be observed by all concerned..
At the core of the tempest in a teapot” are two Nuclear plants for Pakistan.
The China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) has already agreed to build two power reactors in Pakistan, the 325 MW Chashma-1, which started operating in 2000, and Chashma-2, which will be completed next year. The statement said the two new reactors are “2×340 MW”. “Chashma-2 will be a benchmark for C-3 and C-4 projects,” said the statement. On February 12, the two governments had signed a loan contract which went into effect in March, according to the CNNC.
The ever compliant Murdock owned Wall Street Journal is ever ready to jump on any Anti-Pakistan venture. the WSJ allows space to Anti-Pakistani critics and the Sreeniviasan enterprise is no exception to the intrinsicly Pakistanphobic nature of the WSJ.
China didn’t elaborate publicly on its plans to provide new reactors to Pakistan, having announced its intention to have a nuclear deal by proxy with Islamabad earlier this month. Two state-owned firms agreed to build two more reactors at the Chashma atomic complex in Punjab.
Beijing justified the deal on historical grounds, citing its grandfatherly obligations to Pakistan, and also on the logic of restoring nuclear balance in South Asia. The only assurance the Chinese gave was that its nuclear commerce with Pakistan would be in accordance with China’s international obligations.
Meanwhile, the United States was nowhere to be found. “India imitates China, Pakistan imitates India. What can we do to stop their nuclear activities?” Mr. Sreenivasan is Director General of the Kerala International Centre in Trivandrum and a Member of the National Security Advisory Board in New Delhi.
The Bharati media is in a frenzy, first bringing up the old Chasma deal, then bringing up satellite pictures to show that work is going on at Chasma and then trying to harass the NSG into voting against China and rescinding its deal with Pakistan. Bharat is not even a member of the NSG–so all its politicking is being done outside the purview of the NSG and at a bilateral level. Bharat is going against the grain and working against the national and foreign policy interests of China. It is creating a bone of contention with China when none exists now.
At the NSG’s June 21-25 plenary at Christchurch, New Zealand, there was hush-hush over the deal, with only an oblique reference to “consultations and transparency” about Non-NSG states.
India is surprised that some NSG members like New Zealand, Austria and Ireland, who were so critical of the India-US nuclear deal, have not voiced objections to the Sino-Pakistan deal despite Islamabad’s dubious proliferation record as epitomized by its illegal A.Q. Khan network.
India’s apprehension is that given China’s growing global clout and its strong economic ties with virtually all influential NSG countries, the NSG may look the other way and let China go ahead with the deal which is clearly in violation of its existing guidelines, said the sources.
Bharat is bringing in all its big diplomatic guns to try to thwart the Civilian Nuclear deal between Pakistan and China, and also to halt the military cooperation between the US and Pakistan.
Delhi has the following risks and impediments to contend with:
By opposing China and labeling it as a proliferator, Delhi runs the colossal risk of antagonizing Beijing and jeopardizing the Indo-Chinese entente.
By resurrecting old skeletons from the closet, Delhi does risk the NSG reopening the approval of Indo-US deal signed just a couple of years ago.
Bharat is naive to think that the US will oppose China and disallow the Sino-Pakistani deal. If the US had wanted to oppose the Nuclear deal, it would have done so at the plenary session. Bharat may not realize the US silence at Christchurch was part of some sort a deal with China on Iran
The US, NATO and ISAF are upgrading their military relationship with Pakistan–and looking beyond 2011 and beyond Afghanistan. There is new found respect for the successes of the Pakistan Army and NATO wants to take advantage of those trophies. Delhi has a snowball’s chance in hell to reverse the military cooperation between Washington and Islamabad.
Delhi has been isolated in Afghanistan, and its diplomatic clout with Iran, Pakistan, Russia, China and the US is at an all time low. Bharat has faced huge reversals in Kabul. By continuing to harp on old themes, Delhi risks further isolation.
A fascinating write up by in the Hindustan Times a credible but right of center newspaper which excels in Pakistanphobic alarmist news.
Bharat (aka India) has pretty much been told by the NSG to pretty much go away. However Delhi has not taken a hint. In a one-off statement by an American diplomat–in response to a journalists question, the US diplomat has said that the US would oppose the Sino-Pakistani Civlian Nuclear deal. This however does not represent US policy–or it would have surfaced at the Sino-US discussions, or even at the NSG itself.
The US may have come out publicly against the China-Pakistan nuclear deal, but India is not leaving anything to chance and has intensified lobbying with key members of the 46-nation Nuclear Suppliers
Group (NSG) ahead of the nuclear cartel’s next meeting in Vienna. India has not only zeroed in on the ‘Big 4′ in the NSG – the US, France, Russia and Britain – but is also reaching out to other middling NSG members to project the deal’s negative impact on the global non-proliferation regime and the fragile security situation in South Asia.
The government has asked its missions in these key NSG countries to convey the pitfalls of the deal and how it is targeted against India’s vital interests, sources close to the government told the news agency.
The Indian group in Track II dialogue on the India-US relations on Friday met to firm up a strategy to counter the deal at various levels, said the sources. The Track II group from the Indian side includes veteran diplomats and security experts like Naresh Chandra, former Indian ambassador to the US, and Vice Admiral (retd) P.S. Das, who is also involved with India-China Track II dialogue process.
Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao and the joint secretaries dealing with Pakistan and with China, Y.K. Sinha and Gautam Bambawale respectively, also participated in the discussions, added the sources. Hindustan Times
“We have started discussions on the civilian nuclear energy deal and we will continue them but Pakistan’s energy crisis needs immediate attention and for that we are working on plans that can come to fruition in the short term,” Gerald Feierstein, US deputy chief of mission, told a group of journalists on Thursday.
China is taking a very aggressive stance on the NSG and wants it abolished. Reshma Patil of the Hindustan Times reports the new cadence of China on this subject.
Even as Hillary Clinton conveyed ‘concerns’ to Islamabad over China’s controversial sale of two new 650 MW civilian nuclear reactors to Pakistan, influential Chinese voices were arguing that the Sino-Pak deal is
‘practically modelled’ on the India-US civilian nuclear deal. While US Secretary of State Clinton was telling Islamabad that the 46-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) must approve the deal, a Chinese analyst told the Hindustan Times that the NSG should be abolished.
“I think we should abolish the NSG,” Shen Dingli, executive dean of the Institute of International Relations at Fudan University in Shanghai, told HT, adding that he was expressing personal views. “Every country whether an NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) member or not, is entitled to peaceful use of nuclear energy and international cooperation for it. It’s like a human right.”"India and the US opened the so-called nuclear Pandora’s box…removed obstacles for the Sino-Pakistan pact,” wrote Fu Xiaoqiang, analyst at the official think-tank China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, in the State-run China Daily on Monday. “Anybody nodding to the US and India has no reason to dissent to China and Pakistan now. The international community should abandon its ideological prejudice towards China and Pakistan.” Fu, who declined to be interviewed by HT, said the India-US deal provided China and Pakistan with a ‘practical model’ and it’s ‘groundless’ for India to complain after accepting American and Russian civilian nuclear technology. Hindustan Times.The Hindustan Times editorial however continues to push the non-issue to the forefront.
India’s counter-attack strategy will revolve around three key points. First, the Chinese deal to supply two additional reactors, Chashma-3 and Chashma 4, was not “grandfathered,” under an earlier arrangement as China claims. China did not disclose two additional reactors at the time of joining the NSG in 2004.
Second, Indian interlocutors will argue that there is no comparison between India’s deal with the US to that of China’s with Pakistan as New Delhi was granted the clean waiver on account of its widely acknowledged impeccable non-proliferation record.
Thirdly, India will contend that it’s not an energy deal, but a ploy to contain New Delhi by bolstering Pakistan’s capacity to produce more nuclear weapons and will highlight the alleged abuse of foreign aid by Islamabad to modernize its military machine.
The NSG is likely to meet in Vienna in September where two years ago around the same time the NSG granted a one-time clean waiver to India to resume global nuclear trade.
China’s contentious deal to supply two additional nuclear reactors to Pakistan could figure in the discussions.
At the NSG’s June 21-25 plenary at Christchurch, New Zealand, there was hush-hush over the deal, with only an oblique reference to “consultations and transparency” about non-NSG states.
India is surprised that some NSG members like New Zealand, Austria and Ireland, who were so critical of the India-US nuclear deal, have not voiced objections to the Sino-Pakistan deal despite Islamabad’s dubious proliferation record as epitomized by its illegal A.Q. Khan network.
India’s apprehension is that given China’s growing global clout and its strong economic ties with virtually all influential NSG countries, the NSG may look the other way and let China go ahead with the deal which is clearly in violation of its existing guidelines, said the sources.
In a shot in the arm for India, the US recently said it will vote against China’s proposed sale of two civil nuclear reactors to Pakistan when the issue comes up before the NSG.
Lalit Mansingh, a former ambassador of India to the US, warns against complacency. “It’s a positive sign. But we should not take the US for granted. The Obama administration is in the middle of an economic crisis and may not want to open another front with China on the issue,” Mansingh told the news agency.
Mansingh is heading to Singapore July-end to participate in the India-China-Pakistan trialogue where the deal is likely to figure. Hindustan Times
Let us analyze the US statement on which Bharat is building its house of cards. The statement was made in response to a Indian-Caucus Republican who was questioning the US point man for the NSG–Vann H Van Diepen.
During a hearing before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Vann H Van Diepen, the acting assistant secretary of state for international security and nonproliferation, said the US would vote against any exemption for China to sell two civil nuclear reactors to Pakistan.
In response to a question from Rep Ed Royce, a California Republican, asking whether the US would vote against the exemption for China, Van Diepen said, “Yes sir, by definition, we do not support any activity that goes against the guidelines.”
The 46-nation NSG is an international forum designed to limit sales of nuclear technology. Earlier, Van Diepen said, “Based on the facts we are aware of, it would occur to us that this sale would not be allowed to occur without an exemption of the NSG.” daily times monitor
Bharati opposition could in effect help Pakistan. The NSG with the active cognizance of the USA did not make an issue of the Sino-Pakistani Nuclear deal. However there is plenty of information which supports the contention that the NSG may in fact allow parity between Pakistan and India. This matter was discussed at the last session of the NSG, and New Zealand and Australia in fact brought up this very issue.
“In Chinese perspective, China has not done more than the India-US civilian nuclear deal,” Shi Yinhong, director, Centre on American Studies at Renmin University, told HT.”The Chinese government will take care in safeguarding that the nuclear material is not proliferated.” China’s foreign ministry says the Sino-Pak deal is subject to safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Hindustan Times
The US in all honesty cannot really oppose the Sino-Pakistani Civilian Nuclear deal, because the US itself is moving towards such a deal with Islamabad. There is no point in opposing the Chinese deal with Pakistan this year and then going to the NSG and asking for a waiver for Pakistan when Washington signed the 123 deal with Islamabad.
All [Chinese] officials said was the deal would “strictly follow” the IAEA norms and the reactors would come under the IAEA’s supervision.Officials also defended China’s nuclear relationship with Pakistan, amid concerns over Pakistan’s proliferation record.Asked about the deal, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Jiang Yu said: “In recent years, China and Pakistan have been cooperating in the field of civilian use nuclear energy. Our co-operation is consistent with the two countries’ international obligations, is for peaceful purposes and is subject to the IAEA’s regulations and supervision.”Possible concerns in India “would not be relevant” to China’s nuclear engagement with Pakistan, said Zhao Gancheng, a scholar at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies (SIIS).“India, too, signed a civilian nuclear deal with the United States,” he said.
While China voiced opposition to the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal, officials now often cite the deal as precedent for greater nuclear exchanges with Pakistan. The Hindu
In the unlikely event that Bharat is able to conjure up support in the NSG, China is not bound by any NSG decision–usually made by consensus. Beijing may in fact decide to ignore the NSG and go along with the deal. China must have weighed the consequences of the C-3 and C-4 issue and has made a conscious choice to move ahead with the deal. The Chinese companies are in fact on the ground and construction is going on. For China to halt the construction is a far stretch, and would indeed require a reversal in Chinese policy towards Pakistan. There is no indication that China will sacrifice its relations with Pakistan to please the Bharatis.
