kaykay
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Very much possible. Even UP cabinet ministers are upset with situation there and are not confident of winning more than 20 seats but they cant say it openly.SP, even with undivided support of OBC + Muslims + Rajputs + Brahmins could win 35-40 seats ( happened in last election ). In current situation when SP raj is synonyms with goonda raj and due to playing extreme communal politics ( even by Indian standard; he even distributed riot relief material "only" to muslims ), he is bound to hemorrhage Brahmin and Rajput and non yadav OBC support. It could end up with less than 10 seats. Muslims are majority only on one seat in UP and Yadavs are only 7 %. Even Muslim + yadav combine could not save SP if everyone else deserts.
PS: saying this with 100% first hand info.(2 times MLA and a cabinet minister now even after he lost 3rd time this time but a good man and very great doctor)