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Nouriel Roubini: Indian Tortoise Will Soon Pass Chinese Hare

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Nouriel Roubini is an India optimist. The country may have spent years lagging behind fast-growing Asian neighbors, such as China, but the NYU professor and chairman of Roubini Global Economics sees a role switch ahead, he told Bloomberg Television today.

Economic growth in China, weighed down by an aging population and an obsolete investment-driven economic model, is going to fall to 6.5 percent next year and will drop below 6 percent in 2016, “while in India, with the right reforms, it could go to 7 percent,” he said. “So for the first time ever the tortoise becomes the hare and the hare becomes the tortoise.”

China’s leaders know the problems they face, according to Roubini, who is visiting Hong Kong for a Barclays-sponsored conference, but so far they have been reluctant to follow through on promises to address them. “The Chinese understand their growth model is unsustainable—too much fixed investment, not enough consumption,” Roubini said.

STORY: India vs. China: The Battle for Global Manufacturing
Ambitious reforms announced a year ago at the third plenum meeting of the Chinese Communist Party, however, ”are not being implemented, in part because President Xi is trying to consolidate his own power. Therefore every time growth slows down below 7 percent, they do another round of credit-fueled fixed investment. That means more bad assets for the banks and shadow banks, more bad investments in real estate, infrastructure, and excess manufacturing capacity, and more bad debts in the public sector.”

Roubini has doubts, too, about the moves Japanese policymakers are making. Last week’s surprise announcement of more stimulus from the Bank of Japan, coupled with the news the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) will be investing$187 billion into equities, are clear signs Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will say yes to another increase in the consumption tax, he argued.

“In my view, they could have postponed it,” Roubini said. Abe first raised the tax from 5 percent to the current 8 percent in April and is likely to raise it again to 10 percent. That will be difficult for Japanese consumers to digest and could endanger the chances of Abenomics succeeding. “The whole strategy of the administration is to boost corporate profits and the stock market—through corporate tax reform, through the weaker yen, through the actions of the GPIF—so as to lead to more hiring and more capital spending,” Roubini said. But for that virtuous cycle to kick in, “you need consumption.” Another increase in the consumption tax “works against that.”

China vs. India? It's India by a Nose, Roubini Says - Businessweek
 
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Feels good to here that...but sincerely I don't think that is going to happen anytime soon.but surely the rate of growth and economic size will increase..but will time to catch the Chinese. .Leave apart surpass.
 
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Feels good to here that...but sincerely I don't think that is going to happen anytime soon.but surely the rate of growth and economic size will increase..but will time to catch the Chinese. .Leave apart surpass.

it is not that indians will raise, but it is more of china that is going to fall. with huge fixed investments, credit fueled growth, large non performing assets, aging population, decrease in relative labor productivity and growth in shadow banking, china is a bubble that is waiting to be exploded
 
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another will...soon...to thread!!! Tag me when its done!!!!
 
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the point is that China has become so arrogant due to its economic development in the past 3 decades that some so-called educated Chinese refuse to see the reality. The reality is that if China can attain such rapid economic development after more than a century of depravity and poverty and always harps on its population size to overtake the United States and EU, then it is equally plausible that Russia and United States can increase their population manifold to match the Chinese population and remain ahead of China for many more decades or centuries. After all, the United States with just one-fifth of Chinese population has had an economy that was 20-30 times greater than the Chinese economy for about 50 years since 1940. Plus with a land mass that is equal to China's, the US can increase its population manifold and maintain its lead if it feels threatened by much more populous enemies.
 
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A sleepy and lazy Tortoise will surpass a never stop China hare ?how?In your dream?Not every tortoise will surpass a hare like what happened in fairy tales,You indian childrens.

China was asleep from 1900 to 1978 or whatever year you choose. With its newly found arrogance which China rarely displayed before the 21st century, it can relapse into a deep sleep permanent coma.
 
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the point is that China has become so arrogant due to its economic development in the past 3 decades that some so-called educated Chinese refuse to see the reality. The reality is that if China can attain such rapid economic development after more than a century of depravity and poverty and always harps on its population size to overtake the United States and EU, then it is equally plausible that Russia and United States can increase their population manifold to match the Chinese population and remain ahead of China for many more decades or centuries. After all, the United States with just one-fifth of Chinese population has had an economy that was 20-30 times greater than the Chinese economy for about 50 years since 1940. Plus with a land mass that is equal to China's, the US can increase its population manifold and maintain its lead if it feels threatened by much more populous enemies.

Name a single year - just one single year - that the US economy was 20 times bigger, never mind 30 times bigger.

You can't increase population at whim, and you can't assume that living standards remain the same with a larger population. Egypt was the breadbasket of the Mediterranean from Roman times until the 19th century - did its agricultural production scale with population in the 20th century? Lol. Now it is a food importer.

This is what's wrong with you people - you don't like facts. Facts are convenient only when they suit your needs.
 
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Jeez......stop this bullshit. We have heard enough already. Each country has its own development path, shouldn't always be compared with the other. What's this obsession with comparing India with Chiba every time. Thought we had past that years ago.
 
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Jeez......stop this bullshit. We have heard enough already. Each country has its own development path, shouldn't always be compared with the other. What's this obsession with comparing India with Chiba every time. Thought we had past that years ago.
I dont think anybody believes this anymore.. other than gullible Indians..
 
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Jeez......stop this bullshit. We have heard enough already. Each country has its own development path, shouldn't always be compared with the other. What's this obsession with comparing India with Chiba every time. Thought we had past that years ago.

You use an Android phone right?

Since my autocorrect also turns China into Chiba. So annoying, I don't even want to go to Chiba. :cheesy:
 
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