NOTAMS/NAVAREA IX Navigation Warnings for Exercises/Missile Tests

[The Deterrent]

Pakistan Navy issues Navigational Warning

SECURITE

250300 UTC JAN 2018

NAVAREA IX (.) 025/18 ARABIAN SEA (.) PAKISTAN (.) CHARTS
PAK 33, 57 (INT 751), 58 (7019) BA 4071 AND 4705 (.)

2. MISSILE FIRING WILL BE CARRIED OUT BETWEEN 0530 TO 0930
UTC FROM 28 JAN TO 01 FEB 2018 IN AREA BOUNDED BY FOLLOWING
COORDINATES:

(A) 25-43.83N 066-19.45E
(B) 25-16.83N 067-11.36E
(C) 01-59.01N 054-20.98E
(D) 02-25.45N 053-34.10E

SAFETY HEIGHT: 580 KILOMETRES

3. SHIPS AND CRAFT ARE TO KEEP WELL CLEAR AND NOT TO ENTER
ASSIGNED DANGER AREA ON ABOVE SPECIFIED DATES AND TIME (.)

4. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE ON 011030 UTC FEB 2018.

https://www.paknavy.gov.pk/securite/20180125SEC 025.txt

Probable 3rd Shaheen-III test launch.

 

[YeBeWarned]

Shaheen III(A) with range of 2900 km
(Speculation)

 

[JamD]

Pakistan Navy issues Navigational Warning

SECURITE

250300 UTC JAN 2018

NAVAREA IX (.) 025/18 ARABIAN SEA (.) PAKISTAN (.) CHARTS
PAK 33, 57 (INT 751), 58 (7019) BA 4071 AND 4705 (.)

2. MISSILE FIRING WILL BE CARRIED OUT BETWEEN 0530 TO 0930
UTC FROM 28 JAN TO 01 FEB 2018 IN AREA BOUNDED BY FOLLOWING
COORDINATES:

(A) 25-43.83N 066-19.45E
(B) 25-16.83N 067-11.36E
(C) 01-59.01N 054-20.98E
(D) 02-25.45N 053-34.10E

SAFETY HEIGHT: 580 KILOMETRES

3. SHIPS AND CRAFT ARE TO KEEP WELL CLEAR AND NOT TO ENTER
ASSIGNED DANGER AREA ON ABOVE SPECIFIED DATES AND TIME (.)

4. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE ON 011030 UTC FEB 2018.

View attachment 449881
https://www.paknavy.gov.pk/securite/20180125SEC 025.txt

View attachment 449882

Probable Shaheen-III test fire. Note the difference of apogee, 580km as compared to the usual 692km.

Is it me or is the danger area really narrow. I mean I know it's not exactly a fair comparison but look at the Agni-5 test danger area:

Fifth test of the missile, but first user trial. Still not indicated.

View attachment 448476

 

[The Deterrent]

Shaheen III(A) with range of 2900 km
(Speculation)

Try keeping speculations within non-fictional limits.

Is it me or are the danger areas really narrow. I mean I know it's not exactly a fair comparison but look at the Agni-5 test danger area:

Yeas, it is. I've never understood the logic behind such narrow enclosures myself. Maybe the self-destruct mechanism is extra reliable.
Agni series enclosures are much more accurate because any error or divergence from flight path accumulates that way.

 

[sparten]

They said Safe height. Which is fairly imprecise.

 

[YeBeWarned]

Try keeping speculations within non-fictional limits.


Yeas, it is. I've never understood the logic behind such narrow enclosures myself. Maybe the self-destruct mechanism is extra reliable. [emoji14]
Agni series enclosures are much more accurate because any error or divergence from flight path accumulates that way.

It's not as wild speculation as it seems just a little bit of speculation which is tradition for PDF .

 

[JamD]

Try keeping speculations within non-fictional limits.


Yeas, it is. I've never understood the logic behind such narrow enclosures myself. Maybe the self-destruct mechanism is extra reliable.

Reliable self-destruct; never thought of it that way hahaha.

Agni series enclosures are much more accurate because any error or divergence from flight path accumulates that way.

Agreed.

 

[Safriz]

This has to be the longest range NOTAM ever issued by Pakistan. A 2900 km range NOTAM was never issued before.
Has to be a new or very improved existing Missile.

Is it me or is the danger area really narrow. I mean I know it's not exactly a fair comparison but look at the Agni-5 test danger area:

Something to do with the tracking equipment available to the navy ships sent out for the purpose.
These tests are visually tracked on a stabilised telescope.

Pakistan Navy issues Navigational Warning

SECURITE

250300 UTC JAN 2018

NAVAREA IX (.) 025/18 ARABIAN SEA (.) PAKISTAN (.) CHARTS
PAK 33, 57 (INT 751), 58 (7019) BA 4071 AND 4705 (.)

2. MISSILE FIRING WILL BE CARRIED OUT BETWEEN 0530 TO 0930
UTC FROM 28 JAN TO 01 FEB 2018 IN AREA BOUNDED BY FOLLOWING
COORDINATES:

(A) 25-43.83N 066-19.45E
(B) 25-16.83N 067-11.36E
(C) 01-59.01N 054-20.98E
(D) 02-25.45N 053-34.10E

SAFETY HEIGHT: 580 KILOMETRES

3. SHIPS AND CRAFT ARE TO KEEP WELL CLEAR AND NOT TO ENTER
ASSIGNED DANGER AREA ON ABOVE SPECIFIED DATES AND TIME (.)

4. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE ON 011030 UTC FEB 2018.

View attachment 449881
https://www.paknavy.gov.pk/securite/20180125SEC 025.txt

View attachment 449882

Probable Shaheen-III test fire. Note the difference of apogee, 580km as compared to the usual 692km.

I don't think Pakistan has ever tested any IRBM of theirs to its full range.

 

[war&peace]

My guess Ababeel with extended range. By the way, 2900 km is range for testing, it does not necessarily mean that the vehicle will be tested to its full range... YKWIM

 

[The Deterrent]

This has to be the longest range NOTAM ever issued by Pakistan. A 2900 km range NOTAM was never issued before.
Has to be a new or very improved existing Missile.

2900km is the last point of the safety corridor. The impact point is of course lies shorter than that. A mere 3-4% probable increase in range is trajectory optimization at best (if it is even there), not an improved or new version.

I don't think Pakistan has ever tested any IRBM of theis to its full range.

To be accurate Shaheen-III doesn't classifies as an IRBM. And actually Pakistan has conducted an almost exactly similar test of Shaheen-III before:

COMING UP NEXT

SECURITE

071013 UTC DEC 2015


NAVAREA IX (.) 375/15 (.) PAKISTAN (.) SOMALI BASIN (.)
CHARTS PAK 57 (INT 751) BA 4071 AND 4705 (.)

2. MISSILE FIRING WILL BE CARRIED OUT BETWEEN 0400 TO
0700 UTC ON 10 AND 11 DEC 2015 IN AREA BOUNDED BY FOLLOWING
COORDINATES:

(A) 25-43.83N 066-19.45E
(B) 25-16.83N 067-11.36E
(C) 02-00.31N 054-18.63E
(D) 02-27.26N 053-30.92E

SAFETY HIEGHT 578 KM

3. SHIPS AND CRAFT ARE TO KEEP WELL CLEAR AND NOT TO ENTER
ASSIGNED DANGER AREA ON ABOVE SPECIFIED DATES AND TIME (.)

4. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE ON 110900 UTC DEC 2015.

http://www.paknavy.gov.pk/securite/20151207SEC 375.txt

Most probably 2nd test flight of Shaheen-III (2750 km range, 578 km apogee).

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/shaheen-iii-news-discussions.88232/page-28#post-7965192

 

[Safriz]

Isn't this unusual for Pakistan to issue a five day notice?
This one is a very long notice with launch window of 4 hours each day for five days.
Usually it's two days notice tops.

 

[sparten]

Which means its an operation test, i.e done by the actual units as opposed to the manufacturer.

 

[DJ_Viper]

My guess Ababeel with extended range. By the way, 2900 km is range for testing, it does not necessarily mean that the vehicle will be tested to its full range... YKWIM

It doesn't make sense. Why don't you use the empty thousands of miles of Chinese mountains and fire this from one end to 4k-5k into it if that's the purpose?

Isn't this unusual for Pakistan to issue a five day notice?
This one is a very long notice with launch window of 4 hours each day for five days.
Usually it's two days notice tops.

Due to expected weather conditions. If the launch is going to be monitored and tracked, the visibility is kept as clear as possible so the launch window is always limited.

View attachment 449882

See this is the issue. Its being fired right off the end of Pakistan. Why wouldn't you fire this from close to the border of Afghanistan to the end point, that would give you a few more thousands of miles easy if you wanted to test that long range. Or ask the Chinese to throw it in their mountaneous regions that are empty.

 

[ghauri05]

I hope it's Ababeel..test with MIRV..let's see

 

[Safriz]

It doesn't make sense. Why don't you use the empty thousands of miles of Chinese mountains and fire this from one end to 4k-5k into it if that's the purpose?



Due to expected weather conditions. If the launch is going to be monitored and tracked, the visibility is kept as clear as possible so the launch window is always limited.



See this is the issue. Its being fired right off the end of Pakistan. Why wouldn't you fire this from close to the border of Afghanistan to the end point, that would give you a few more thousands of miles easy if you wanted to test that long range. Or ask the Chinese to throw it in their mountaneous regions that are empty.

Ghauri was tested like that. Fired from near Islamabad and target near Iran borders.