North East Asian Union? Exploring the potential of an NEA integration

[Tiqiu]

Okay, so no need to quote what I say here. Keep making yourself happy with falling RMB. I hope you dont lose your job yet when RMB still falling with CN economy keep shrinking

Indian Rupee depreciated from Rs 39 per USD in 2007 to Rs 68 per USD today, a 42% drop,has India collapsed?

 

[Viva_Viet]

Indian Rupee depreciated from Rs 39 per USD in 2007 to Rs 68 per USD today, a 42% drop,has India collapsed?

Dont talk nonsense if u try to avoid the truth that TPP will make RMB lose hafl in 2024.

 

[comci]

I think Senkaku is not a big problem, CN could cede a big territory to Myanmar, so losing few rocks on the sea will not make Cnese get angry.

The big problem is that JP-SK r under control of US capitalist. SK alone is under theart of Kim's invasion in nuke attack. So there is No way for SK to unite wt China cos Great leader Kim will Nuke Beijing, too

In Jan,2015,we also predicted that RMB will fall to half in 2024, 6 years after TPP come out in 2018.

RMB has lost 5-6 % at the end of last year , so do you think 45-50% lost is feasible ??

As long as China or East Asian Nations dont have powerful institutions like the FED or ECB(European Central Bank) whose financial policy impact the world economy, anything is possible. But that doesnt mean one just have to wait in the corner and wait for the death sentence. One want to think or create idea how to avoid the miserable scenario. China already did it with her first step:the AIIB.

You keep focus on RMB as valuta and the doomed scenario of RMB. I really think you ignored other factors that China can use or invent in the future. What China do right now with her valuta,the RMB is new uncharted territory for the chinese government. It bound to fail by external sabotage attempt from external threats, but its ok, after all you learn from the mistakes and moves on. Nothing goes smooth for the first time. You need experience to perfect the technique.

George Soros,the man who broke the Bank of England, didnt exactly finished off The Bank of England. What happened was that the Bank of England learnt from the trick George Soros used to manipulated the pound. Nowadays the Bank of England is alive and kicking. I expect the same with China and her monetairy policy. You should stop repeating TPP this or TPP that or RMB is going to be terminated. If these 2 factors are the only ones you can rely on to bend China knee or other east asian countries, then i am afraid its not even close to defeat East Asia on the longer term.

Okay, I hope u agree that TPP is for containing CN economy. then do u think TPP will be ratiffied in 2018 ?? After 06 years TPP kick in (2024) do u think RMB will fall to half as Vnese predicted in Jan,2015 due to CN export market shrink ??

TPP=anti China's economic policy (and squeeze the money out of other participants of TPP). That has never been the doubt on many legal scholars.
With regard to the future of RMB, anything is possible. I cant predict the future. Know well this :the one(s) in charge of RMB policy in Beijing better make viable solution or else his or their head(s) will roll.

 

[Tiqiu]

But I humbly disagree with @Nihonjin1051 that the members here has agreed on “shelving” the Diaoyu-Senkaku dispute in order to focus on “more progress related issues”.

What made you come to this conclusion?
"Shelving differences and seeking joint development" was first proposed by Dan Xiaopin it the 1970s to Japan, and the same also has been put forwarded to Vietnam and Philippines in relation to SCS by the Chinese. But other counties chose to develop themselves excluding China.

 

[William Hung]

What made you come to this conclusion?
"Shelving differences and seeking joint development" was first proposed by Dan Xiaopin it the 1970s to Japan, and the same also has been put forwarded to Vietnam and Philippines in relation to SCS by the Chinese. But other counties chose to develop themselves excluding China.

I wasn’t talking about the govt or politicians. I was referring to you guys, the members discussing the NAEU in this thread. I believe Nihonjin was referring to the members in this thread...check the his words that I quoted.

My contention is this: None of you guys were willing to agree to have that thread renamed. And the US is not an obstacle in having that thread renamed. The US is not stopping you from renaming a PDF thread title. My intuition is that your nationalism is stopping you from agreeing to have it renamed.

Its true that nationalism is too high in JP and CN for both countries to make any concession or compromise over the Diaoyu-Senkaku disputes. But even you guys, the NEAU advocates in this thread, also can’t even make a minor concession to have that thread renamed. And don’t tell me the US is the obstacle in getting the thread renamed. So all these NEAU discussions are just empty talks.

Anyway, this NEAU dream is none of my business. I can stop now and let you guys discuss about your dream like earlier. I only wanted to find out whether you guys were willing to make a concession on a thread title and I’ve now got the answer. Okie.

 

[Viva_Viet]

As long as China or East Asian Nations dont have powerful institutions like the FED or ECB(European Central Bank) whose financial policy impact the world economy, anything is possible. But that doesnt mean one just have to wait in the corner and wait for the death sentence. One want to think or create idea how to avoid the miserable scenario. China already did it with her first step:the AIIB.

You keep focus on RMB as valuta and the doomed scenario of RMB. I really think you ignored other factors that China can use or invent in the future. What China do right now with her valuta,the RMB is new uncharted territory for the chinese government. It bound to fail by external sabotage attempt from external threats, but its ok, after all you learn from the mistakes and moves on. Nothing goes smooth for the first time. You need experience to perfect the technique.

George Soros,the man who broke the Bank of England, didnt exactly finished off The Bank of England. What happened was that the Bank of England learnt from the trick George Soros used to manipulated the pound. Nowadays the Bank of England is alive and kicking. I expect the same with China and her monetairy policy. You should stop repeating TPP this or TPP that or RMB is going to be terminated. If these 2 factors are the only ones you can rely on to bend China knee or other east asian countries, then i am afraid its not even close to defeat East Asia on the longer term.



TPP=anti China's economic policy (and squeeze the money out of other participants of TPP). That has never been the doubt on many legal scholars.
With regard to the future of RMB, anything is possible. I cant predict the future. Know well this :the one(s) in charge of RMB policy in Beijing better make viable solution or else his or their head(s) will roll.

of course CN should not just sit and wait for the death sentence.

as Marx said: " The capitalist will not hand over its power to pple peacefully, so we have No choice but conducting Violent revolution to overthrown them". So, you have no choice but stand up and fight against the greeed Capitalist USA....or u will die in 2028. USA just moved its defense system to SK few days ago.

The problem is that only VN bloody defeated USA till now while CN still be split into 02 parts ( CN-TW) by US cos CN fighting skill suck.

 

[comci]

Yes @Tiqiu I agree with you that at this moment, nationalism is too high in both Japan and China for both parties to make any kind of concession or compromise with respect to the Diaoyu-Senkaku dispute. And I think it is this nationalism that will be an obstacle for the NEAU dream.

But I humbly disagree with @Nihonjin1051 that the members here has agreed on “shelving” the Diaoyu-Senkaku dispute in order to focus on “more progress related issues”.

My intuition is that you guys are not “shelving” this issues but are just merely “hiding” your nationalism. I’m not getting any affirmative response for my suggestion and I sense that Chinese members in this thread will not be willing to rename that thread like I suggested due to their nationalism.

And it is this kind of nationalism that will make this NEAU discussions empty. If you are too nationalistic to make a compromise or concession on a minor issue (name of a thread) over a minor dispute (territorial claims over some rocks), then these NEAU discussions are just empty talks. And my last point is this, your willingness or unwillingness to have that thread renamed will not be the fault of the US. So, from my point of view, the problem that makes this NEAU unrealistic is not the US, but nationalism within the JP and CN population. So its kind of strange to me to read how you guys said the US is the main obstacle. At the very least, the US is not the obstacle in getting that thread renamed is it? So what is that obstacle? As I have explained, you guys in this thread probably possess that nationalism, but are just hiding it.......unless... I see you guys be willing to have that thread renamed like I’ve suggested.

I will only believe your theory after the USA is gone from the asian theater. Then we can blame the nationalistic sentiments between the east asians for the failure of the creation Greater East Asian. For now, i believe that USA is the number 1 problem for even dreaming for this kind of organization. That is what we have learnt from the study of the EU establishment in the past until now. Even now as a matter of speaking, USA try so hard to thwart EU union by throwing problems on the EU step door. Take war on terror and Arab spring (sponsored by CIA) as example; the war in Iraq which have devastated many lives, practically made Iraq(old enemy of USA) unstable. The spill over of this war(in the form of arab spring) affect neighbouring countries like Syria, Libya, Tunesia, Yemen, Bahrain, Egypt and the least affected Saudia Arabia (shia uprising in the southern oil rich area) and European Union in the form of the horde refugees. To add more insult, John Kerry has the guts to praise Germany and other stupid european(nordic countries) for their hospitality towards the refugees. Even though USA dont accept much islamic refugees themselves! The nerve and the stupidity of politician like frau Merkel is really beyond me.

Right now, Merkel is wrestling with the problem she created with her big mouth by claiming all refugees are welcome in Germany. Does she even know the impact of economic, social,demography consequence of her big mouth. Not only she would not admit her stupidity, but now she insist that other member of the EU share the burden of the refugee to relieve the pressure on the German society. Eastern Europe countries (who in the past were orbit states of the Sovjet union) are now resisting her refugee policy with all their might and start listening to Russia who was not positively about the break down of the European culture by this islamic refugee. There goes the hard preserve unity of the EU. Meanwhile Washington laugh their *** off.

You have to see the big picture here.The way i see it, the more USA throw burdens on the EU, the less time EU will have to cooperate with Russia or China on business that really matters instead of clean up the mess USA done to the world. Money that could spent to useful projects are now spent in building walls to prevents refugee to Europe, costly border security, not to mention the huge amount of money needed in coming decades to integrate, housing the refugee.

of course CN should not just sit and wait for the death sentence.

as Marx said: " The capitalist will not hand over its power to pple peacefully, so we have No choice but conducting Violent revolution to overthrown them". So, you have no choice but stand up and fight against the greeed Capitalist USA....or u will die in 2028. USA just moved its defense system to SK few days ago.

The problem is that only VN bloody defeated USA till now while CN still be split into 02 parts ( CN-TW) by US cos CN fighting skill suck.

Without Russia and China covert militairy materials support, there would be no Vietnam as we know today. You guys would be exterminated in pieces by the USA militairy.
If the USA won the (south)vietnam war, there would be 2 vietnams nowadays :North Vietnam with Hanoi as capital and South Vietnam with Saigon as capital.

 

[Viva_Viet]

IlWithout Russia and China covert militairy materials support, there would be no Vietnam as we know today. You guys would be exterminated in pieces by the USA militairy.
If the USA won the (south)vietnam war, there would be 2 vietnams nowadays :North Vietnam with Hanoi as capital and South Vietnam with Saigon as capital.

SoViet-CN sent full support to N.K, and still could not defeat USS in SK.

Btw:Soviet/Russia is smart, she know that supporting VN is the right choice to weaken the power of US capitalist. CN leader Deng Xiao Ping made an unforgivable mistake when destroying Communist bloc for US, so now, when communist bloc gone, US can destroy CN easily and push CN to collapse in 2028.

 

[William Hung]

I was not trying to give a theory to explain all the complex geopolitical dynamics within the Asia Pacific region.

I wasn’t trying to say the US hasn’t caused any problems either. I was merely pointing out that the Chinese and Japanese people have one huge problem for your NEAU dream, and it wasn’t caused by the US. That problem is nationalism. And members here possess that nationalism too, eventhough they are trying to hide it while talking about the NEAU, which I then find quite meaningless.

I will only believe your theory after the USA is gone from the asian theater. Then we can blame the nationalistic sentiments between the east asians for the failure of the creation Greater East Asian. For now, i believe that USA is the number 1 problem for even dreaming for this kind of organization.

Just for one moment, lets forget about the situation out there. Lets put my “theory” to the test in this forum, because the US is not present in this “theater”. So let me ask these two questions:

1. Will the relevant members in this forum agree to have that thread re-titled as “Diaoyu-Senkaku islands news and updates”?

2. Is the US the obstacle in getting that thread re-titled?

If both answers are no, then I think my little theory has merits. I’m not saying that the Diaoyu-Senkaku dispute itself is an obstacle, but the nationalism behind it is. I think @Nihonjin1051 was trying to imply that he and his pal does not have that nationalistic problem because they can/have agreed to “shelve” or ignore that issue. I was arguing that no, they are just hiding their nationalism. The fact that Chinese members here won’t allow the thread to be re-titled shows that they do possess that nationalism.

 

[waz]

I'd say after a NEA integration, the leading nations such as China and Japan work on integration throughout Asia itself. With the biggest population on the planet, largest landmass, ample resources and a skilled and peaceful population, which share many cultural traits, Asia can be immense. If we have the EU, the AU and other groupings based on shared traits, why not an Asian Union?

 

[comci]

SoViet-CN sent full support to N.K, and still could not defeat USS in SK.

Btw:Soviet/Russia is smart, she know that supporting VN is the right choice to weaken the power of US capitalist. CN leader Deng Xiao Ping made an unforgivable mistake when destroying Communist bloc for US, so now, when communist bloc gone, US can destroy CN easily and push CN to collapse in 2028.

Conquering South-Korea was never been the objective of Russia or China. Stalin and Mao were content to have the status quo, where North-Korea were communist (acted as buffer state for China) and South-Korea as capitalist. But Kim il Sung get greedy and truely believe in his divine power and invade South-Korea despite China and the Sovjet Union earlier objection for his mad adventure. The consequence was that when Kim il Sung found out that his divine power and army could not won against the superior NATO forces, he begged China and Sovjet Union to interfere to save his undivine fat belly. So gradually with blood and sweat from chinese soldiers, the status quo before the invading of South-Korea where preserved. Sovjet Union didnt lift a finger to sent bulk of russian soldiers something Mao would not forget.

If Deng Xiao Ping didnt took the initiative and played USA against the Sovjet Union, China will still be in the shadow of the Sovjet Union. Anno 2016, who is the reemerging super power now? Its blasphemy to even think China=the middle kingdom would let other to lead the way. Mandate from heaven would prohibit it. Following other temporarily?yes, but permanentely? never! We are a nation of leader not follower in the end.
Nowadays USA still sabotage China, but as far i can see China is doing fine, not even closely being destroyed. In fact China gradually push USA back in all corners of the world. If i was USA, my primary concern is to survive Donald Trumps and many business elite,the 1 percent(whose business objectives may contradict national objective), first before firing shot at China.

I was not trying to give a theory to explain all the complex geopolitical dynamics within the Asia Pacific region.

I wasn’t trying to say the US hasn’t caused any problems either. I was merely pointing out that the Chinese and Japanese people have one huge problem for your NEAU dream, and it wasn’t caused by the US. That problem is nationalism. And members here possess that nationalism too, eventhough they are trying to hide it while talking about the NEAU, which I then find quite meaningless.




Just for one moment, lets forget about the situation out there. Lets put my “theory” to the test in this forum, because the US is not present in this “theater”. So let me ask these two questions:

1. Will the relevant members in this forum agree to have that thread re-titled as “Diaoyu-Senkaku islands news and updates”?

2. Is the US the obstacle in getting that thread re-titled?

If both answers are no, then I think my little theory has merits. I’m not saying that the Diaoyu-Senkaku dispute itself is an obstacle, but the nationalism behind it is. I think @Nihonjin1051 was trying to imply that he and his pal does not have that nationalistic problem because they can/have agreed to “shelve” or ignore that issue. I was arguing that no, they are just hiding their nationalism. The fact that Chinese members here won’t allow the thread to be re-titled shows that they do possess that nationalism.

I believe other members here already told you what the answers are, but if you insist.
This generation will not back down on their territorial claims, ergo its useless to talk to them about what you want. Hence the Greater East Asia project needs to move to the next generation. If they are not ready too, then move it again until the time is ripe and they realize its for their own benefit and survival. I believe the future generations can pull this off, this generation? not so much.

 

[Viva_Viet]

Conquering South-Korea was never been the objective of Russia or China. Stalin and Mao were content to have the status quo, where North-Korea were communist (acted as buffer state for China) and South-Korea as capitalist. But Kim il Sung get greedy and truely believe in his divine power and invade South-Korea despite China and the Sovjet Union earlier objection for his mad adventure. The consequence was that when Kim il Sung found out that his divine power and army could not won against the superior NATO forces, he begged China and Sovjet Union to interfere to save his undivine fat belly. So gradually with blood and sweat from chinese soldiers, the status quo before the invading of South-Korea where preserved. Sovjet Union didnt lift a finger to sent bulk of russian soldiers something Mao will not forget.

If the Deng Xiao Ping didnt took the initiative and played USA against the Sovjet Union, China will still be in the shadow of the Sovjet Union. Anno 2016, who is the reemerging super power now? Nowadays USA still sabotage China, but as far i can see China is doing fine, not even closely being destroyed. In fact China gradually push USA back in all corners of the world. If i was USA, my primary concern is to survive Donald Trumps and many business elite,the 1 percent(whose business objectives may contradict national objective), first before firing shot at China.

Same thing for South VN, CN also didnt want N.VN unify S.VN.

U see CN is doing fine, but we see the collapse of CN after TPP kick in in 2018. Thats why. We give u guys the correct year of the fall of RMB 2024, and the collapse of CN economy in 2028.

At least, after this discussion, u guys must admit that"every thing could happen" instead of trying to deny our prediction.

So, just wait and see what will happen, and Im sure 90% that, our prediction will be correct again, just like our prediction in 2014 abt TPP deal, our prediction in Jan,2015 abt the fall of RMB.

 

[comci]

Same thing for South VN, CN also didnt want N.VN unify S.VN.

U see CN is doing fine, but we see the collapse of CN after TPP kick in in 2018. Thats why. We give u guys the correct year of the fall of RMB 2024, and the collapse of CN economy in 2028.

At least, after this discussion, u guys must admit that"every thing could happen" instead of trying to deny our prediction.

So, just wait and see what will happen, and Im sure 90% that, our prediction will be correct again, just like our prediction in 2014 abt TPP deal, our prediction in Jan,2015 abt the fall of RMB.

Good for your divine vision then. I wish i had your divine skill predictions

 

[Aepsilons]

Yes @Tiqiu I agree with you that at this moment, nationalism is too high in both Japan and China for both parties to make any kind of concession or compromise with respect to the Diaoyu-Senkaku dispute. And I think it is this nationalism that will be an obstacle for the NEAU dream.

But I humbly disagree with @Nihonjin1051 that the members here has agreed on “shelving” the Diaoyu-Senkaku dispute in order to focus on “more progress related issues”.

My intuition is that you guys are not “shelving” this issues but are just merely “hiding” your nationalism. I’m not getting any affirmative response for my suggestion and I sense that Chinese members in this thread will not be willing to rename that thread like I suggested due to their nationalism.

And it is this kind of nationalism that will make this NEAU discussions empty. If you are too nationalistic to make a compromise or concession on a minor issue (name of a thread) over a minor dispute (territorial claims over some rocks), then these NEAU discussions are just empty talks. And my last point is this, your willingness or unwillingness to have that thread renamed will not be the fault of the US. So, from my point of view, the problem that makes this NEAU unrealistic is not the US, but nationalism within the JP and CN population. So its kind of strange to me to read how you guys said the US is the main obstacle. At the very least, the US is not the obstacle in getting that thread renamed is it? So what is that obstacle? As I have explained, you guys in this thread probably possess that nationalism, but are just hiding it.......unless... I see you guys be willing to have that thread renamed like I’ve suggested.

The framework that both sides would like to remain in is through the historical pathway that Deng Xiaopeng and Takeo Fukuda both agreed upon in, "setting aside disputes and pursue joint cooperation and joint development of the whole." Both Japan and China have national concerns, but the point that you're focusing on, which inclines towards a nation-specific focus of development rather than a region-wide specific. What we NEA members have been discussing about in this thread is focusing not on nation-specific concerns, but more so on a greater region-specific framework. You see in the myopic sense of national maritime issues such as the Senkakus / Diaoyutais --- by focusing on national claims , proves to be a barrier to the wider paradigm. What I have tried to assuage with other patriots here is that both Japan and China should consider the Senkakus / Diaoyutais as a 'shared' maritime region of Greater East Asia Union. In doing so we can re-establish the consensus of the East China Sea that both Japan and China had agreed to joint-develop. In fact there is actually a legalist framework that Beijing and Tokyo can refer to , which is actually in operation: the 2013 Tokyo-Taipei Maritime Fisheries Agreement. This agreement establishes a fisheries zone of operation where both Chinese Taiwanese fishing boats can fish with Japanese fishing boats and have both maritime surveillance ships from Japan and Taiwan collaborate in security interdiction and joint rescue operations. It has been a success, actually.

Ultimately,@William Hung , the barrier to creative dialogue has been on the onus on secluded nation specific arguments of territoriality. This closed ended dialogue style of the past actually is used by strategic threats to Japan and China as a means to sow division onto the 2nd and 3rd largest economies in the world; and the two most prolific East Asian societies. Ultimately I would like to see , through bilateral security communication systems, that Japan and China learn to synergize each other's ADIZ's, and to re-create a wider Regional ADIZ that can further reach into the Western and Central Pacific. Focus should be on complementing each other's strategic potential energy, instead of resisting.


I hope that can help clarify our position.

Let Great East Asia Rise ... like a Golden Phoenix as the cherry blossom falls unto the wet earth.

I'd say after a NEA integration, the leading nations such as China and Japan work on integration throughout Asia itself. With the biggest population on the planet, largest landmass, ample resources and a skilled and peaceful population, which share many cultural traits, Asia can be immense. If we have the EU, the AU and other groupings based on shared traits, why not an Asian Union?

Examining Intergovernmentalism in Northeast Asia: Shaping Distrust to Cooperation




By: @Nihonjin1051, PH.D.


I also wanted to note that Japan, South Korea and China have been exhibiting a growing interest in political and economic cooperation since the 1990s. Japan , South Korea and China were able to develop economic and political cooperation through the use of the concept of multilayered Intergovernmentalism.

I want to make it known that political and economic cooperation within the framework of Northeast Asia is absolutely possible if we refer to the literature regarding European integration. I would like to cite the two dominate schools that theories the European integration process which include: 1) Neofunctionalism and 2) Intergovernmentalism. There are existing dichotomies between Intergovernmentalism and Neofunctionalism.

Neofunctional processes emphasize that the high and rising levels of economic and technological interdependence, the spillover effects created by them, and the growing role of supranational institutions in the process of integration. Neofunctional approach espouse that any integrative action in one sector steps down actions in related sectors, and this integration process would create new problems that could only be solved by further cooperation. Therefore, the beginning of cooperation in high politics areas and eventually general integration would be achieved by a whole new entry of supranational entities. We saw this in Europe in the form of the six European states founded the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) in 1951 and also the European Economic Community (EEC).

The second theory, the Intergovernmentalism Theory, identifies the heads of state and government as key central players. The theory states that regional integration can best be understood through series of bargains between the heads of government , which would then be supported by small ministerial and advisory board. The beauty of this Theory is that the heads are not enforced to accept any policies that would be considered unacceptable. This theory is based on the fact that decision making amongst the partners would be done by unanimous consent. The outcomes will converge on what political scientists would deem as “the lowest common denominator”. The reason why I think that China , Japan and South Korea can solve core interest issues through Intergovernmentalism is because it allows consensus agreement and direct communication with heads of state. Right now, Intergovernmentalism is perfect for Japan, South Korea and China because Northeast Asia has not yet reached the stage of integration as seen in the European context.

Reference:

Aminian, N., & Calderon, C. (2010). Prospects for Closer Economic Cooperation in Northeast Asia. Review Of Development Economics, 14(3), 417-432. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9361.2010.00562.x

Yoshimatsu, H. (2005). From Distrust to Mutual Interests?: Emerging Cooperation in Northeast Asia. East Asia: An International Quarterly, 22(4), 18-38.

Yoshimatsu, H. (2010). Understanding Regulatory Governance in Northeast Asia: Environmental and Technological Cooperation among China, Japan and Korea. Asian Journal Of Political Science, 18(3), 227-247. doi:10.1080/02185377.2010.527209

 

[Viva_Viet]

Good for your divine vision then. I wish i had your divine skill predictions

We only use what Marx taught us from his books, every one can learn that. Marx failed in predicting the time English capitalist collapse, but hes right abt " Capitalist will not handover its power peacefully to the pple."