No water for Pakistan from glaciers after 2060: UNDP

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

292 million is being cited by the UN keeping in consideration expected improvements in population growth rate reduction. That is something not a lot of people are sure about.

I have been reading a couple of books in population growth and sadly our situation is really bad comparing to the rest of the world, and South Asia as well. Bangladesh and India have improved their population control programmes significantly, but ours is in tatters not because of lack of funding or institutional effectiveness but due to rejection of ideas on social cultural and religious factors (unlike Iran where the clergy promotes it). One study showed that around a quarter of those who were informed about necessary precautions and procedures and started using it have left them because of religious reasons, which is a very bad sign (I'll dig this report fro you). Contraceptive use has fallen as well.

Population growth rate and fertility aren't decreasing as we would like it to, and the trend isn't comparable with the world figures or the regional figures. We are performing bad here.

Read this while I try to get a copy of our official studies conducted by NIPS.

Well i have friend who deals marketing of Chabbi Pills. Well acc to him the sales of such pills have increased tenfolds from 2006 to 2009. Alot of ppl are actually using them...!

However the clerics here are certinly against it and theres a dominant religious aspect quite active in this domain..!

 

[Hutchroy]

No, but they are proof that you have no understanding of population growth rates.

Look here: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2002.html

Pakistan's current growth rate for 2010 is estimated at 1.513 by the CIA World Factbook. I have seen some estimates as high as 1.9% and I was actually using a 2% number to calculate a doubling in 35 years. So I was taking the absolute high end of the estimate and didn't even assume that there would be any reduction in the growth rate - which is false, because the growth rate has been coming down over the last 40 years. It was around 3.5% in the mid 70s.

So you are completely incorrect and your numbers are completely false. That said, we can move on now.

Well, the proof of the Pudding is in the Eating.

sparklingway Sir has commented and I await his further figures.

All one can say is no matter which figure is attained, Pakistan will be even more "Water Stressed" than now.

BTW : We are talking about 2060 and not 2050!

 

[sparklingway]

Well, the proof of the Pudding is in the Eating.

sparklingway Sir has commented and I await his further figures.

All one can say is no matter which figure is attained, Pakistan will be even more "Water Stressed" than now.

BTW : We are talking about 2060 and not 2050!

I never claimed that TL's assertions were wrong, I was pointing out that our population growth mechanisms aren't as successful as they should be and the decrease in fertility and population growth has been far more prominent and successful in the world and our region than in Pakistan i.e. we are lagging behind in our attempt to curtail explosive growth. Add to this the demographic momentum, and we have a quasi-doomsday scenario that requires urgent attention and religious discourse as well.

 

[TechLahore]

292 million is being cited by the UN keeping in consideration expected improvements in population growth rate reduction. That is something not a lot of people are sure about.

I have been reading a couple of books in population growth and sadly our situation is really bad comparing to the rest of the world, and South Asia as well. Bangladesh and India have improved their population control programmes significantly, but ours is in tatters not because of lack of funding or institutional effectiveness but due to rejection of ideas on social cultural and religious factors (unlike Iran where the clergy promotes it). One study showed that around a quarter of those who were informed about necessary precautions and procedures and started using it have left them because of religious reasons, which is a very bad sign (I'll dig this report fro you). Contraceptive use has fallen as well.

Population growth rate and fertility aren't decreasing as we would like it to, and the trend isn't comparable with the world figures or the regional figures. We are performing bad here.

Read this while I try to get a copy of our official studies conducted by NIPS.

Also visualize it and see the magic of Iran.

Gapminder World

I hear you... and don't disagree.

But please note that regardless of which number one goes with, Hutchroy's 800M people in Pk by 2060 estimate is complete hokum.

---------- Post added at 10:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:38 PM ----------

Well, the proof of the Pudding is in the Eating.

sparklingway Sir has commented and I await his further figures.

All one can say is no matter which figure is attained, Pakistan will be even more "Water Stressed" than now.

BTW : We are talking about 2060 and not 2050!

The point was not whether Pakistan will be water stressed; the whole world will be. The point was that your 800M population projection for 2060 is indefensible.

 

[Hutchroy]

292 million is being cited by the UN keeping in consideration expected improvements in population growth rate reduction. That is something not a lot of people are sure about.

I have been reading a couple of books in population growth and sadly our situation is really bad comparing to the rest of the world, and South Asia as well. Bangladesh and India have improved their population control programmes significantly, but ours is in tatters not because of lack of funding or institutional effectiveness but due to rejection of ideas on social cultural and religious factors (unlike Iran where the clergy promotes it). One study showed that around a quarter of those who were informed about necessary precautions and procedures and started using it have left them because of religious reasons, which is a very bad sign (I'll dig this report fro you). Contraceptive use has fallen as well.

Population growth rate and fertility aren't decreasing as we would like it to, and the trend isn't comparable with the world figures or the regional figures. We are performing bad here.

Read this while I try to get a copy of our official studies conducted by NIPS.

Also visualize it and see the magic of Iran.

Gapminder World

Population Census Organization, Government of Pakistan - POPULATION BY PROVINCE/REGION SINCE 1951

1951 : 33,740,167

1961 : 42,880,378

1971 : 65,309,340

1981 : 84,253,644

1998 : 132,352,279

2010 : 173.51 Million - as per Chapter 16 of Pakistan Economic Survey 2009-2010

So in 39 Years (1971 to 2010) the Population has gone up about 2.66 Times.

As such in the next 40 Years do you think that the Figure of the Pakistani Population being 292 Million i.e. an Increase of 1.68 Times is Realistic?

 

[TechLahore]

Population Census Organization, Government of Pakistan - POPULATION BY PROVINCE/REGION SINCE 1951

1951 : 33,740,167

1961 : 42,880,378

1971 : 65,309,340

1981 : 84,253,644

1998 : 132,352,279

2010 : 173.51 Million - as per Chapter 16 of Pakistan Economic Survey 2009-2010

So in 39 Years (1971 to 2010) the Population has gone up about 2.66 Times.

As such in the next 40 Years do you think that the Figure of the Pakistani Population being 292 Million i.e. an Increase of 1.68 Times is Realistic?

You just don't get it do you... first off, even at 2.66 X 173M, you don't get 800M, which is what you were claiming.

Second, the population growth rate has been in decline. SW is right that it should have diminished even more, but nonetheless, it was above 3.3% in the 70s and by no means is it even close to that by any measure, or any study. If you take the highest growth estimates of today, you are close to 2%. At that growth rate you don't even get *close* to 800M.

Why don't you just look up the growth rate numbers yourself and look through the population growth studies to resolve your misunderstandings. There is no serious researcher or scholar on the subject who will support your 800M number.

 

[balck soul]

well you have to respect the nature

a simple example have any one try to stand the apposite side of AC think outside the room temp is 40 and inside your room temp is 16 so that means your are providing 24 temp outside your room

 

[RescueRanger]

Don't worry it's being worked on. Desalination and Water reclamation have made huge strides. Im sure we will have this area well covered well before the 2060 dead line.

http://www.unescap.org/esd/water/publications/water/wrs/85/07 WRS85-Pakistan.pdf

Also Karachi has already been working on desalination: Pakistan desalination plant moves forward | Global Water Intelligence - Archive

 

[desiman]

Don't worry it's being worked on. Desalination and Water reclamation have made huge strides. Im sure we will have this area well covered well before the 2060 dead line.

http://www.unescap.org/esd/water/publications/water/wrs/85/07 WRS85-Pakistan.pdf

Also Karachi has already been working on desalination: Pakistan desalination plant moves forward | Global Water Intelligence - Archive

desalination isnt as easy as you think, some things to consider -

1) Amount of waste is just huge, just the amount of salt back from the process will be in the thousands of tons every year, where will you dump all this without causing a natural disaster ?

2) Marine life is damaged heavily has they are pulled into the pumps and end up getting chopped up in the turbines. This was a huge concern in the US when they were making their first desalination plant.

3) Cost - simple and easy, it cost a lot lol Water will get much more expensive

4) Output - desalination plants does not really generate that much water and cannot sustain a city by any means. Would need atleast 5-6 of these to sustain a city like Karachi.

there are some other variables also, so until the tech is not perfected, this will be a tough road to take.

 

[greatsequence]

koi nahi uss waqt tak kashmir hamara hoga

 

[Hutchroy]

You just don't get it do you... first off, even at 2.66 X 173M, you don't get 800M, which is what you were claiming.

Second, the population growth rate has been in decline. SW is right that it should have diminished even more, but nonetheless, it was above 3.3% in the 70s and by no means is it even close to that by any measure, or any study. If you take the highest growth estimates of today, you are close to 2%. At that growth rate you don't even get *close* to 800M.

Why don't you just look up the growth rate numbers yourself and look through the population growth studies to resolve your misunderstandings. There is no serious researcher or scholar on the subject who will support your 800M number.

With the increase in Life Expectancy and the lowering of Child Deaths etc. Pakistan's population will be far more than you think.

On a straight line basis I stated that it should be 800 Million in 2060 and not 2050.

Don't worry as Pakistani Government bases its calculations considering the Pakistani Population being 166 Million whereas the "Population Clock" states close to 170 Million and the 2009-2010 Economic Srurvey quotes a Figure of over 173 Million.

BTW : The following source considers Pakistani Population in 2010 as 186.773 Million :

PAKISTAN FACT FILE

Meantime I have asked sparklingway Sir a question and I await his answer.

 

[intelarpit]

koi nahi uss waqt tak kashmir hamara hoga

1947 se keh rahe ho

 

[Hutchroy]

desalination isnt as easy as you think, some things to consider -

1) Amount of waste is just huge, just the amount of salt back from the process will be in the thousands of tons every year, where will you dump all this without causing a natural disaster ?

2) Marine life is damaged heavily has they are pulled into the pumps and end up getting chopped up in the turbines. This was a huge concern in the US when they were making their first desalination plant.

3) Cost - simple and easy, it cost a lot lol Water will get much more expensive

4) Output - desalination plants does not really generate that much water and cannot sustain a city by any means. Would need atleast 5-6 of these to sustain a city like Karachi.

there are some other variables also, so until the tech is not perfected, this will be a tough road to take.

I will only comment on the Salt as a by product of Desalination. Please note that there is a Huge "Salt" Trade which will "absorb" this by product.

Having said that, I think you are being unreasonable in your judging the "Desalination" Process or its viability.

I, for one, would give a "Thumbs Up" to the Desalination Process.

 

[foxbat]

koi nahi uss waqt tak kashmir hamara hoga

Bina paani ke usse chaato ge kya?? dont derail the thread. Stay on topic

 

[TechLahore]

With the increase in Life Expectancy and the lowering of Child Deaths etc. Pakistan's population will be far more than you think.

With an increase in life expectancy and a lowering of child deaths, come an increase in per capita income and an improvement in quality of life. Both these factors are associated with a *lowering* of the population growth rate. This has been the story in *every* country as it has gone from a developing to a developed state.

By your logic, the population of the Scandinavian countries should have increased drastically since they have both low child death rates, and high life expectancy. But it isn't the case. And that's because an overall improvement in quality of life causes a lower population growth rate.