Won’t be an end to anything. The crazy wagnar boss said 5000 , can be sent in Niger capital in hours. From Mali. Does anyone fear ECOWAS army? They can’t help Mozambique or the Sahel.
Well, from an intelligence perspective. These coups could only succeed if they are backed by the majority of a country, and this is lacking certainly. Which mean any civil war in any case would have been a long drawn-out affair, that's why these gusy went with the easiest target, which is the president instead of trying to take over the Military. Because they would have done it if they already had the number and support. They haven't done it because they don't, not because they wanted to avoid unnecessary bloodshed.....I mean these African nations is built on blood....I don't think these African nations have any qualm about spilling blood.....
Another fact here is even Russia is reserved in this, I mean if these fractions have Russian tacit support, the Russian would have not said anything instead of echo UN statement of condemning the coup. Now whether or not Russia or China would approve a UN intervention, that's another issue, but you can quite literally see Russia is trying to back away from this. Now, this could of course all be a ploy, but if we look at Wagner, which is what Russia can only spare at the moment, they are stretched thin, the Wagner in 2021/2022 Burkina Faso and Mali coup is not the same Wagner today, yes, of course they can send 5000 Wagner to Niger tomorrow, but how good are these 5,000 and at what cost? That's probably all they have got right now, they would have to redeploy personnel from other part of Africa or even middle east to intervene with this coup, and then you also need to look at the possibility of the west can also be using this chance to further weaken Russia by supporting Bazoum loyalist and make it another proxy war with Russia, this is going to impact their war in Ukraine if this happens, which make it unlikely.
What do you mean fail? They've taken the country, they've succeeded.
If you mean that the current junta will fall? Thats probably going to be the case if Ecowas send military forces, as Niger doesn't have a bug enough army to defend itself in the first place. Even if Burkina Faso and Mali send troops to help Niger's junta, the most they'll have is 13000 troops (which is unlikely as most of both nation's mikitary is busy fighting insurgents). Nigeria alone would be enough to crush them Niger's military, Ecowas would sweep through Niger.
I don't think ECOWAS would need to use force in this case, if they shut off trade and isolate Niger, this would crumple Niger economy, they are the biggest trade to Niger like 80% of them came from ECOWAS country (Either direct trade or transit). People are going to go crazy in a few weeks when nothing is going out and nothing is coming in..
Of course, military action would also be on the table. But again, I don't think it would come to that stage.
