Next Chief Of Army Staff - 2013 ?

[opsroom]

General Rashid now COS, he is having the maximum chances due to his present appointment.

 

[fatman17]

Opinion The chief’s matrix

Wajahat S Khan

Wednesday, July 31, 2013



It’s almost official. By October or November, Pakistan’s military at large, and then its army in particular, are going to have new commanders.



First, the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee is going to get a new chairman. The probable is Lt-Gen Haroon Aslam and, by fall, he will be the 15th Four-Star (and the 12th general) to assume what is essentially a ceremonial role in an organisation that is toothless but potentially – if it ever dares to change itself – a key platform for the future of war in Pakistan.



By the way, the chairman of the JCSC is supposed to be the highest-ranking military official in the country. So it’s only fitting that Haroon, the senior-most ‘survivor’ in khaki after the retirement axe falls collectively on the four top generals ahead of him this autumn, is chosen for this top slot. However, in Pakistan’s power structures, there are a lot of rules that are supposed to be but that are never meant to be for real. Case in point: the CJCSC ‘top slot’ is going to be fancy reward for Haroon, but not a particularly useful one, because the real prize – chief of army staff – seems to be going elsewhere.



How’s this possible? How does the senior-most man in the structure get a ceremonial job? It’s the tragedy of the matrix, really.



Haroon comes in line after Pakistan’s most famous chain-smoker, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who is followed by the fail-safe General Khalid Shamim Wynne (the current CJCSC, who – technically but not practically – outranks Kayani), the dapper and extroverted Lt General Khalid Nawaz (of the country’s largest and politically powerful X Corps in Chaklala) and the almost cherubic but very academic ‘Pakhtunist’, Lt General Alam Khattak (of the strategically pivotal Southern Command, headquartered in Quetta). This gang of the top four will go golfing this autumn.



In effect, Haroon’s appointment in Wynne’s stead will not be a controversial affair as his seniority will make him the perfect fit for what is – but again, only on paper – the top military job in the land. He has commanded an ostensibly important formation, operations-wise, in Bahawalpur’s XXXI Corps; he’s done the paramilitary bit as the DG of Punjab Rangers; he’s been general officer commanding of the Special Service Group during key operations (yes, he is one of those lead-from-the-front commandos who jumps off helicopters); he’s served as a director in the elite Military Operations Directorate; he’s completed a foreign war course which, in the army, sets apart the haves from the have-nots; he’s served as an administrative top gun as chief of staff of another corps as a brigadier; and he’s an infantryman, making him a representative of the largest arm of the army, the infantry, where he represents the post-’71 Azad Kashmir Regiment (but not the older, more prestigious battalions). And surprise, surprise: he’s a Punjabi.



But as he currently serves as a principal staff officer to Kayani, Haroon wears the rather unspectacular ultra-coordinator’s hat as the chief of logistics staff (CLS): Though not the most glamorous of the GHQ’s powerful PSO desk jobs, the role makes him perfect for the drag CJCSC office which, essentially, is that of a glorified commissar who coordinates between the three services – army, navy and air force.



That means a lot of photo-ops, a lot of foreign trips, no operational control, but also much required inter-service synchronisation, maybe even harmonisation, between the dominant khakis and the relatively puny whites and blues. And what better way to keep the sailors and aviators in check than sending in a burly, bespectacled, cane-wielding commando, with 200 pounds and over 50 jumps on his ‘red wings’ to ‘coordinate’ between the three services at the very classy and colonial, but still rather single-storey, Joint Staff Secretariat.



Thus, Haroon’s is the classic case of an honourable send-off: as a one and two-star, he was a star. But consolatory desk jobs (like a stint as chairman of the Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority), the current CLS gig (which was a post lying vacant for bit, waiting for him as he got his commander’s notch at XXXI Corps), and the nominal command of Bahawalpur (it’s no Lahore, Karachi or even a strike formation) indicate that his grooming has been carefully managed by the chief’s secretariat to be good – but not good enough.



The bottom-line, then, on why the actual number one in the army will get the not-actually-number-one job in the tri-services military combine is simple, but a masterstroke by Kayani: Haroon as CJCSC will be good for army morale (even a ‘grunt commando’ from a non-pedigree regiment can rise to the top, without superseding anyone); he will be a blunt, by-the-book answer for the recently elected purveyors of rules and regulations (the ‘top general must get the top job’, as PM Nawaz Sharif and his waistcoated boys insist), and he will carry on with the army’s control of even the marginally empowered triad of the joint chiefs (where, let’s be honest, he will be better qualified than anyone the air force or the navy can churn out, only because his recent, though clerical, staff posts as well as his special forces focus qualify him for where the joint service operations are headed). More importantly, the army will look like it follows the rules, ‘sacrificing’ its senior-most warrior to the beast of official protocol: That last bit is key.



But, even more importantly, in a country made for blue-eyed boys, Haroon’s appointment in October will clear the way in November for a man who will take direct control of the fifth largest fighting force in the world. This will probably be an officer known as Lt-Gen Rashad Mahmood. Spelt differently from ‘Rashid’, though pronounced as such, Rashad will be the eighth chief of army staff (before General Tikka Khan, the COAS was called the commander-in-chief, which was too grand a title for Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto not to change) and the 15th general to command the Pakistan Army.



Frankly, Rashad as the 15th chief is much more interesting than Haroon as the 15th chairman. On the seniority list, Rashad comes in seamlessly after Haroon, and will move in as seamlessly into Army House. Why? Because, for now, he seems to be the epitome of the army’s command and staff matrix, and his boss has done a remarkable job of grooming him as an heir-apparent. But first, some background on how the chief’s matrix works, and how the cards are stacked to prepare grounds for the most powerful job in Pakistan.



Long before the May elections, General Kayani pulled a knight’s move by pre-empting debate and combat with any elected government over the future leadership of the army by grooming and promoting (even retiring) different types of brass for different types of roles. The four autumn retirees (listed above) notwithstanding, the race had boiled down to five by earlier this year. The commando, Lt-Gen Haroon Aslam at number one; the contender, Lt-Gen Rashad Mahmood, at number two; the legatee, Lt-Gen Raheel Sharif, at number three; the soldier’s soldier, Lt-Gen Tariq Khan, at number four. And the spook, Lt-Gen Zahir-ul-Islam, at number five.



The chief’s secretariat’s options were limited, but Kayani’s choices were further complicated by challenges that no mere military secretary could help him solve. How would he manoeuvre any elected PM into making a by-the-book decision that would also feature his own choice? How would he ensure that his constituency, the army itself, would remain impressed with such a choice, and its codes – written and unwritten – would be followed?



And, as importantly, how would he keep the Americans relaxed and other ‘patrons’ satisfied? The die was cast long ago by Kayani as far back as 2010/11; and its colour was khaki.



To be continued



The writer, a Harvard Kennedy School Fellow, is a multimedia journalist. He tweets @wajskhan.



Email: wajskhan@**********

The chief’s matrix

Wajahat S Khan
Friday, August 02, 2013
From Print Edition

Part - II



Zero protocol

The writer, a Harvard Kennedy School Fellow, is a multimedia journalist.



The army prides itself on two categories when it comes to positioning its ranks: seniority (age and date of commission) and grooming (tasks assigned on merit). Seniority can’t be meddled with, except by superseding a ranking officer, and/or by out-grooming him. As he decided not to take the ill-rumoured ‘second extension’, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s options eventually lay with grooming the top five soldiers who would survive the retirement axe which he himself wouldn’t this fall; some more junior than others, but all as different as continents are apart.

Kayani’s matrix had to be fail-safe: with the 2013 elections imminent, his line-up had to be ready before a new prime minister – any new prime minister – would assume office and be in a position to choose his successor. Ultimately, the choice had to be the best of both worlds: Kayani’s own, as well as what the rules said. This would induce a premier of any hue to pick Kayani’s man – by default as well as design – with almost no room to navigate, short of political scandal. Thus, the administrative strategist in Kayani went to work a few years ago, circa 2010/11, to groom his successor(s) by charting them across the only two slots that matter in the army: command and staff posts.

Simply, command posts are those that grant an officer operational control of deployed forces over a specified covered area. At three-stars, that means a corps command. All five potential successors would play that gig: Haroon Aslam would get Bahawalpur’s XXXI; Rashad Mahmood would get Lahore’s IV; Raheel Sharif would get Gujranwala’s XXX; Tariq Khan would get Mangla’s I; and Zahir-ul-Islam would get Karachi’s V.

So, check, check, check, check and check on his could-be successors’ command CVs, making them all equally qualified for the top slot? Not really, and not so fast.

Armies are beasts of hierarchy, but they’re also creatures of legend. While all contenders made it to a corps command, they all knew that, much like George Orwell’s Animal Farm, all corps commanders are created equal, but some corps commanders are created more equally than others.

In the army’s jungle of myth and law, Lahore and Karachi are more prestigious commands; they come with an informal degree in politics for the commander, just because of where they are headquartered. Battle-focused, Mangla is an elite ‘strike’ formation, hard-tasked to knife into India. Bahawalpur and Gujranwala are ‘holding’ formations, assigned to assist other, larger corps.

Thus, the tactics of their deployments disclosed the strategy of their boss. Rashad and Zahir were meant for bigger things (the politically sensitive chief of general staff and DG-ISI after Lahore and Karachi, respectively). Tariq, the tough guy of the western front (by 2010, he had done two serious stints with the 14th Infantry Division and the Frontier Corps in counterinsurgency/counterterrorism operations in Fata/KPK, liaised with US Centcom and commanded another strike formation in the famed 1st Armoured Division) would now harden his troops for the ‘perpetual threat from the east’.

As for Haroon (GoC of SSG) and Raheel (commandant of Pakistan Military Academy plus another premier infantry division’s GoC), not top guns but not lightweights either, thus, still worth rewarding, would get secondary corps in Bahawalpur and Gujranwala. To those who can read the code, the math was clear: though all had three-stars, some brass was worth more – and better polished, too.

But besides command, there comes a time in every officer’s life when he has to do a more ‘political’ desk job – the staff job – and at the three-star level, that means serving as a principal staff officer (where one is within walking/whispering/wooing distance away from the boss). The PSO job reinforces the best and singles them away from the rest. It’s also where one gets to lunch, talk golf and of course, work with and impress Kayani.

In this darker world of staff jobs, the chief’s matrix would become clearer: The number two, Rashad, would get the choice chief of general staff (after Lahore, this would peg him as a ‘favourite’ for COAS). The number one, Haroon, would get the less-glamorous chiefdom of Logistics Staff (readying him for the coordinative role at CJCSC). The number three, Raheel, a war-hero legatee (after all, he is Nishan-e-Haider Shabbir Sharif’s brother, but severely underrated by analysts), would get the cumbersome IGT&E (inspector general training and evaluation, a bean counter of sorts).

Zahir, at five, would take the fearsome ISI (not a PSO, but an adjutant to the real ISI chief, Kayani himself, a trustworthy title further enshrined after Karachi’s politics and terror). Only Tariq Khan, who lives for the field, would remain in the command world and not get a staff job, drilling his strike corps for the day of reckoning with India.

As for the hot favourite, Rashad may have a novice’s handicap of minus-two in polo, but Kayani’s fellow ‘Baluchi’ is a contender by the very fact that he’s led the sensitive Lahore Corps – where he duly interacted with the Sharifs as they held Punjab in the previous administration – and is now Kayani’s premier PSO.

This is a double whammy. As the chief’s eyes and ears of the operations and intelligence directorates (MO and MI), Rashad is the institutional Lancelot to Kayani’s Arthur – minus the affair with Guinevere. Since his induction as the CGS, he’s quickly scored an unsung feat: hauling Pakistan out of a potentially scandalous international mess (anyone remember Fatima Fertiliser and sanctions being debated in US Congress till last winter?) by chairing cooperative task forces and quieting Nato/Isaf down about tackling the flow of IEDs from Pakistan into Afghanistan.

But clearly, there’s more to the man than his ‘coveted’ CGS job. The unremarkable tenets of Rashad’s remarkable resume feature the same-old-yet-stellar postings: GoC of an infantry division, a foreign war course, chief of staff, etc. But there are two standout jobs that underscore his run for chiefdom.

First, Brig Rashad Mahmood served as military secretary to Nawaz Sharif’s favourite president, Rafiq Tarar. On the trust-scale, this weighs him above the others and especially his senior, Haroon Aslam, who was also a brigadier in 1999, but serving as director military operations in a directorate that was tasked to launch the bloodless coup that would depose Sharif in a few hours on October 12 of that year. Coupled with his Lahore command, that accounts for two safe ‘ins’ for Rashad with the Sharifs, advertently or inadvertently.

Second, Rashad has had an excellent record at the ISI as a two-star. He is the senior-most of a select few ‘general-spies’ that Kayani – Pakistan’s first DG-ISI to serve as COAS – has moulded in his own image to bridge the gap between Aabpara and Chaklala (even parliament and GHQ). Credited for reforming – in fact, creating – a critical cell to enhance the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence’s efforts at countering violent extremism, Rashad is a living intel legend, hailed from Pindi to the Pentagon. Thus, though he was not conducting airborne assaults in Peochar (like Haroon) or firing his Glock empty from helicopters like Tariq (in Operation Zalzala), he was the brains behind the brawn. That’s big.

But is it big enough? Is Rashad Mahmood’s well-constructed Infantryman/ Baluchi/MS/COS/Foreign Course/GoC/Spy Legend/Corps Commander/CGS CV going to work in his favour as October will absorb Haroon – the official number one – as CJCSC, leaving him to be deftly appointed COAS in November, by default and design? Or is the chief really that predictable and all this is smoke and mirrors? Is Nawaz Sharif going to get cornered into a ‘meritorious decision’ which has been expertly calibrated as Kayani’s own? Are the ‘family-friend’ ties of another contender with the Sharifs going to create a new matrix? Is the ‘anti-Indianess’ of yet another candidate going to come into play?

What about the warm ‘operational contacts’ of at least three contenders with the Americans? What about the immense ‘political power’ that one of the more junior men holds? And who can predict the unwritten rule that after a gunner in Musharraf, and an infantryman in Kayani, it’s now a cavalryman’s turn? The codes of the chief’s matrix are complex, but there is only one challenge for any soldier: the army must remain united.



Concluded



Twitter: @wajskhan



Email: wajskhan@**********

 

[Jazzbot]

General Haroon Aslam is the senior most officer to become COAS. Nawaz shareef already said he will make the next senior he will not pick and chose this time .. but he is reported Haroon is very aggressive and bold soldier and heart beat of army currently. General Haroon is first ever general who fought in operation area with troops as leading officer at last post. An operation where normally a subaidar or max leut or captain commands.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=341284482648787

2 things NS will be concerned about Gen. Haroon Aslam:

1) Mustache
2) SSG

 

[batmannow]

General Haroon Aslam is the senior most officer to become COAS. Nawaz shareef already said he will make the next senior he will not pick and chose this time .. but he is reported Haroon is very aggressive and bold soldier and heart beat of army currently. General Haroon is first ever general who fought in operation area with troops as leading officer at last post. An operation where normally a subaidar or max leut or captain commands.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=341284482648787

2 things NS will be concerned about Gen. Haroon Aslam:

1) Mustache
2) SSG

yes sure a big no, without a voice?lol
but what ever , how ever he will be getting the boots for sure? watch this happening!lol

 

[F.O.X]

Gen Haroon Aslam is the Best choice for COAS .. he is a True General who always stays with his men & supports them in every situation .

He is the Exact opposite of Gen Kyani (who has a very cool Head & he like to avoid confrontation if Possible ) .. Gen Haroon on the other hand is the Kind .. who will jump into Fire if he has to just so he can complete his task .

Lets Hope for the Best .. Fingers Crossed .

 

[Jazzbot]

Gen Haroon Aslam is the Best choice for COAS .. he is a True General who always stays with his men & supports them in every situation .

He is the Exact opposite of Gen Kyani (who has a very cool Head & he like to avoid confrontation if Possible ) .. Gen Haroon on the other hand is the Kind .. who will jump into Fire if he has to just so he can complete his task .

Lets Hope for the Best .. Fingers Crossed .

Well Said. I also personally wish we could have Gen Haroon Aslam as our next COAS. We had Kiyani as a cool and friendly and it didn't pay well in WoT. Infact terrorist activities are increasing day by day. The time is here to eliminate these scumbags and a person like Gen Haroon is best suitable for the job. We need this kind of soldier up front.

 

[Edevelop]

 

[F.O.X]

Gen. Haroon During Operation Rah-e-Raast

 

[Marwat Khan Lodhi]

@DESERT FIGHTER was saying that general tariq from tank district would become next COAS.....how much he is right?

 

[DESERT FIGHTER]

@DESERT FIGHTER was saying that general tariq from tank district would become next COAS.....how much he is right?

Nah man.. i said hes competent.. but senior most is Gen Haroon....also a competent general.

 

[Hulk]

The extension of COAS takes out opportunity for few who could have been COAS. Does it not hurt them?

 

[Sedqal]

It is a very funny phenomenon that being a commando and SSG officer is being maliciously portrayed as a negative trait for Lt Gen Haroon Aslam for elevation as COAS. It is absurdly opined by some insane quarters that “Commandoes are known for raw courage and not for sober judgements”. Interesting enough but silly to the core. Being a commando, is a qualification and not a character trait. If a commando officer rises in the ranks and is promoted as a General, he attains all the required qualifications and is closely watched for balance and exacting leadership qualities.
Comparison is drawn that since Pervez Musharraf was a commando and was erratic and impulsive in his conduct, therefore all commandoes are like him. Funny and absurd. Well Gen Yayah Khan was from Baloch Regiment and he brought shame to the nation in 1971. He was a debauch and drunkard. Thus by same logic we should debar all Baloch regiment officers to be promoted to senior postions. Lt Gen Niazi was from Punjab regiment . Should all Punjab Regiment officers be labelled as cowards? Military intervention ??? Gen Zia ul Haq was a hard core Armoured Corps officer. Disband Armoured Corps ??? By the way Gen Musharraf served more in Artillery than in commando unit.
The propaganda is malafide and attempt to deny well deserved and rightful position of COAS to Gen Haroon.

SSG should get the message sound and clear that it has failed this nation by churning out a tout like Musharraf. Gone are the days when politicians became the scapegoat for every Army misadventure.

 

[Marwat Khan Lodhi]

I hope its Lt.General Tariq Khan - He seems competent, a thoroughly professional & very level headed !

He can not become COAS for a specific reason.

 

[Armstrong]

He can not become COAS for a specific reason.

And what might that reason be ?

 

[mikkix]

General Haroon Aslam is close to Kayani and in good books of other powers.
All of the above are pro west, these people are the reason why Kayani was getting extension, because kayani wants to make sure that these people will get promotion so that their policy in future will continue, Kayani colleagues 2 years ago are not kayani supporter and kayani make sure they should retire first before his exit.
Haroon Aslam I guess did a job for politics as being a Core Commander of Lahore and have a good relations with PM Nawaz. I don't know whether he visited NS house before election or not but definitely have a good terms with PM.
This is all my analysis....