New Yorkers Look To Suburbs And Beyond. Other City Dwellers May Be Next

[PakFactor]

You guys know that your property taxes go to support the school systems?

Yes we know — issue is not the support of the school system but the cost that’s taken out for this. It’s just to excessive of a percentage allocated to this.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

You guys know that your property taxes go to support the school systems?

The budget is public so we know where it goes and if there is a big budget change the town does a vote.

You are going to have towns whose priorities are education and then towns who think they should spend their money on food/housing for Latin America asylum seekers.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Suburban housing market surged in August while Manhattan trailed

New home-purchase contracts climbed in Brooklyn and the suburbs in August 2020, while Manhattan trailed behind.

therealdeal.com

Suburban housing market surged in August while Manhattan trailed

(iStock)

September 02
New York’s real estate market has become a tale of two fortunes.

There is Brooklyn and the suburbs, where new contracts surged in August, according to the latest market report from Douglas Elliman.

Then there is lonely old Manhattan, where real estate executives are leading the charge for companies to return to work; where the business community is taking every opportunity to tout the city’s unshakable foundation; and where home sales continue to tumble.

Contracts for condos in the borough fell almost 38 percent last month from the same period last year, while new listings went up 30 percent, the report showed. Co-op contracts fell 26 percent.

The ultra-luxury market was particularly slow, with no condo contracts signed above $20 million and four between $10 million and $19.99 million. Most deals were between $1 million to $4 million.

“That urban-to-suburban story has to be recast as Manhattan-to-suburban,” said appraiser Jonathan Miller, who compiled the report.

Since the pandemic hit, much has been made of the so-called “death” of cities. However a recent report from Zillow showed that urban and suburban residential real estate markets have mostly fared the same — the Northeast being the exception.

In the Hamptons, contracts for single-family homes climbed 109 percent in August from the same period last year, to a total of 278. New listings also doubled. In Norfolk, home deals went up 76 percent.

The pandemic is a huge driver, of course — but not only because it sparked a rush of interest in homes with privacy and outdoor space.

“A lot of this unusual surge isn’t just outbound migration from Manhattan but it’s the fact that there wasn’t a spring market — it was locked down — and the summer ended up being a release point for all this pent-up demand and pent-up supply,” Miller said.

But now, there are potential signs that the frenzy may be levelling off. In some suburban areas, including Westchesrer, Fairfield and Long Island, the month-over-month figures seemed to plateau or peak, Miller said. Whether that’s a temporary easing or the sign of something bigger remains to be seen.

Deals in Brooklyn have mostly followed the upward trajectory of the suburbs. Co-op deals climbed 181 percent last month to a total of 138, the report showed. Most of them were in the $500,000-$999,000 range, followed by the second-largest bracket, under $500,000. There were zero co-op deals above $4 million.

Condo deals in the borough also climbed, however the 33 percent increase was markedly more modest than the co-op figures. Just three of the condo contracts were above $4 million.

Single-family home contracts totalled 128 in August — up from 50 in the same month last year.

“[Brooklyn] didn’t take the hit that Manhattan did, and it continues to show that,” Miller said, noting that demand appeared to be outpacing supply.

“If you look at the two of the three property types, there was larger growth in signed contracts than there was in new inventory coming on.”

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

New Yorkers Are Fleeing to the Suburbs: ‘The Demand Is Insane’ (Published 2020)

The pandemic is spurring home sales as prosperous city residents seek more space. One listing had 97 showings and received 24 offers.

www.nytimes.com

New Yorkers Are Fleeing to the Suburbs: ‘The Demand Is Insane’

Over three days in late July, a three-bedroom house in East Orange, N.J., was listed for sale for $285,000, had 97 showings, received 24 offers and went under contract for 21 percent over that price.

On Long Island, six people made offers on a $499,000 house in Valley Stream without seeing it in person after it was shown on a Facebook Live video. In the Hudson Valley, a nearly three-acre property with a pool listed for $985,000 received four all-cash bids within a day of having 14 showings.

Since the pandemic began, the suburbs around New York City, from New Jersey to Westchester County to Connecticut to Long Island, have been experiencing enormous demand for homes of all prices, a surge that is unlike any in recent memory, according to officials, real estate agents and residents.

In July, there was a 44 percent increase in home sales for the suburban counties surrounding the city when compared with the previous year, according to Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants. The increase was 112 percent in Westchester, just north of New York City, and 73 percent in Fairfield County, Conn., just over the state border.

At the same time, the number of properties sold in Manhattan plummeted 56 percent, according to Miller Samuel.

The suburban demand, driven in part by New York City residents who are able to work remotely while offices are closed, raises unsettling questions about how fast the city will be able to recover from the pandemic. It is an exodus that analysts say is reminiscent of the one that fueled the suburbanization of America in the second half of the 20th century.

It is not just crowded open houses, multiple offers and bids above asking prices. People in New Jersey suburbs who have no interest in putting their homes on the market are receiving unsolicited calls and knocks on the door from brokers asking if they want to sell.

Of course, residents have left New York City for the suburbs for decades, especially to bring up children in towns with strong public schools. And it is very difficult to predict whether the new migration will continue at this pace once a vaccine for the coronavirus is available and office towers in the city fully reopen. What’s more, most New York City residents do not have the means to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on a home in the suburbs.

Experts have predicted New York City’s demise during past crises, including the Sept. 11 terror attacks, only to be proven wrong. In fact, even as office towers in Manhattan remain largely empty because of the outbreak, some businesses, including Amazon and Facebook, are expanding their footprints, betting that workers will eventually return to their desks.

Still, many companies and workers have become much more comfortable with remote work during the outbreak, suggesting that the suburbs will remain very attractive for the foreseeable future.

For now, many buyers in the suburbs are expressing concern about the health risks of living in densely packed urban neighborhoods. Facing pandemic restrictions, they want room that New York City often cannot provide: a yard for their children to play and an office to work remotely. Many want land, even if it means being farther away from Manhattan.

Some buyers have told brokers they are concerned about reports of rising crime in New York City, real estate agents said. (Overall crime has not spiked in the city, but shootings have, Police Department data shows.)

“The people from New York are coming with a sense of urgency, and the thing they want is space,” said James Hughes, a real estate agent in New Jersey, who added that roughly 60 percent of potential buyers for his properties live in the city. “The demand is insane.”

Zack Stertz and Zoe Salzman joined the buying frenzy in June. After 15 years in Brooklyn, they said they realized soon after the pandemic struck that their two-bedroom apartment with a backyard, generous by New York standards, was too small for working from home with two young sons.

They could not afford a renovated brownstone in Brooklyn and were worried that New York City schools would not open for in-person classes in the fall, so they looked at New Jersey. They weren’t the only ones, their broker at the Allison Ziefert Real Estate Group warned them, suggesting they act fast.

When a four-bedroom house in Maplewood, N.J., appeared on the market on June 12, they toured it on June 14 and two days later submitted an offer over the $799,000 listing price — the highest bid among many offers. The sellers accepted it.
“To give up living in Brooklyn and move to suburbs, we just couldn’t see ourselves there,” said Ms. Salzman, 39, a lawyer whose office is in Manhattan. “But the pandemic helped make this choice for us.”
The flight out of New York City could inhibit the city’s economic recovery and its ability to maintain quality-of-life services like the police and sanitation, said Maria Doulis, vice president of strategy and operations at the Citizens Budget Commission, a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog.
“What is worrisome is that the high-income earners, particularly those with more than $1 million, provide a substantial amount of resources to the New York City budget,” Ms. Doulis said. “To lose them would really represent a blow to the budget.”
Mayor Bill de Blasio said this week that he had no doubt that New Yorkers who left during the pandemic would eventually return, though he appeared to be referring more to people who had temporarily moved elsewhere, including to second homes.
“If you don’t think New York City is coming back,” Mr. de Blasio said, “then you don’t know New York City.”

Still, real estate agents across the region say they have been swamped with calls from New Yorkers who are rethinking their desire to stay.
Moving companies have said they cannot keep up with the demand. Metropolis Moving in Brooklyn said the number of quotes for out-of-state moves jumped by more than 200 percent in May and in June compared with those months last year, and by more than 165 percent in July versus a year ago. Most people seeking quotes were moving to the city’s suburbs, he said, though others were moving to areas stretching from Washington, D.C., to Boston.



Image

Zoe Salzman and Zack Stertz, far right, in Maplewood, N.J.Credit...Karsten Moran for The New York Times

Across New Jersey, more than 29,700 homes were sold in June and July, an increase of 33 percent over the same period in 2019, according to the Otteau Group, a real estate data and appraisal firm.

Jeffrey G. Otteau, who is the president of the company, said the buying spree was particularly notable because it was happening when fewer homes were on the market.
From the start of the year through July, the inventory in New Jersey dropped 40 percent compared with same period last year — a sign that many homeowners in the state were staying put during an uncertain economy.

“The demand has to come from somewhere, and we think most of that is coming from New York City,” Mr. Otteau said. “In some ways, this looks to me like the 1960s and 1970s, when there was a large outflow of the population pushing into the suburbs.”

Mr. Hughes, the New Jersey real estate agent, said he had multiple clients who each lost bids on about half-dozen homes, including a two-bedroom house in East Orange that received 25 offers. It sold for $345,000 — 21 percent over the asking price.

“It’s crazy for any period,” he said.
For more than two months, Rennes Toussaint and her fiancé, Olajide Keshinro, have been looking at houses in New Jersey. The couple, who live in a 500-square-foot apartment in Queens, have submitted offers for four homes, but lost out on all of them.

Before the outbreak, the couple discussed leaving the city for the suburbs, but never this soon. It became urgent when Mr. Keshinro, who plays professional basketball overseas, suddenly returned home early, Ms. Toussaint said, and the apartment felt even smaller.
“We thought it would be easy, but it’s very, very, very competitive,” Ms. Toussaint, 33, said about the housing search.
In New York’s Hudson Valley, the number of homes sold in July in Putnam County jumped 35 percent from the year before; they climbed 19 percent in Dutchess County.
Melissa Carlton, a broker at Houlihan Lawrence, said the area’s picturesque towns and scenic views had long attracted second-home buyers and people who want weekend getaways. But New York City residents have recently explored the area for permanent residences.

“Last year, people would say that a property may be too far away from the train station,” Ms. Carlton said. “That is not the case this year.”
That is how Rehana Alam and Sadi Alam feel. They live with their three children — ages 9, 7 and 4 — in a home they own in Jamaica, Queens. It is a 15-minute commute for Sadi Alam, a podiatrist, to get to work.

But the Alams have been concerned that their children have been largely confined to their home during the pandemic. Over the summer, the couple decided to get more indoor and outdoor space for their children.

On Wednesday, they closed on a five-bedroom house with a pool on two acres in Dix Hills, Long Island, about 30 miles east of Queens.

“The best thing I could have done was provided them more space,” Ms. Alam, 35, said. “Looking at their sad faces, it just wasn’t worth staying in Queens.”

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

so if there is no covid, many people still prefer to live in the metropolitan areas

 

[FuturePAF]

It'll be interesting to see the long term impact of Coronavirus and WFH on office space in cities. The company I work for was aggressively hiring and has continued to hire during this crisis. Our business is unaffected and runs fluidly from home. They were considering getting another floor in our building but are now talking about a "new normal" where people aren't in the office most of the time.

My neighbours company has made his team home based permanently. They've vacated the office. It'll be interesting to see what becomes of cities in the future.

WFH vs if the companies start requiring commute to work will be the deciding factor.

I thinK renters will leave and come back but homeowners that are ethnic minorities especially will stay put. A community in the city is hard to replace. Also New York City property taxes are relatively lower and the commutes around the city, if MTA gets their bailout will draw people back to the cities once this pandemic passes. In 2-3 years the shift back to the Cities may start to occur. The US is still urbanizing the way Europe is; rich in the core city. I just expect the ultra rich to get better terms on their taxes and the middle class to foot more of the bill. The closer in suburbs will probably be the best place to live if commute times become a factor again.

the next 12 months will still be pandemic based, but as the vaccine becomes available, companies will be given great deals on rent in city center commercial spaces and market forces will restore to a new equilibrium

 

[KAL-EL]

Bill De blasio appears to be a buffoon

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

so if there is no covid, many people still prefer to live in the metropolitan areas

Metro yes, multi-unit city no.

https://www.builderonline.com/money/economics/80-percent-of-americans-prefer-single-family-homeownership_o

80 PERCENT OF AMERICANS PREFER SINGLE-FAMILY HOMEOWNERSHIP

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

I thinK renters will leave and come back but homeowners that are ethnic minorities especially will stay put. A community in the city is hard to replace. Also New York City property taxes are relatively lower and the commutes around the city,

Same in the Boston area. Property taxes are only 1/4 of the nicer suburbs for the same property value.

The closer in suburbs will probably be the best place to live if commute times become a factor again.

NYC commuter rail stretches well outside the city limits. So suburban homes within the fingers will always be a safe bet.

Same situation for Boston.

 

[FuturePAF]

so if there is no covid, many people still prefer to live in the metropolitan areas

For some yes and for others no. But those most likely to live in or close to cities will be ethnic minorities that can afford it.

for example, the demand was high before this pandemic in flushing queens that whole complexes of high end apartment buildings were planned. This maybe put on hold for the next 2-5 years, but will come roaring back when most people feel it is safe enough for people to live where they feel is best for their lifestyle. We also have to remember that us population growth is at least 50% through immigration or the children of immigrants, who normally tend to live in or near major cities for those same amenities. The people will follow the money and jobs. If the jobs are in the cities, people will be back in no time.

Hill West Architects Reveals Renderings for Massive Waterfront Complex in Flushing, Queens - New York YIMBY

The Flushing Willets Point Corona Local Development Corporation submitted proposals to redevelop a 29-acre waterfront industrial property in Queens.

newyorkyimby.com

‘Not what it used to be’: in New York, Flushing’s Asian residents brace against gentrification

The cultural and culinary landscape of Flushing, in Queens, has been disrupted as Asian American conglomerates gentrify the working-class area

www.google.com

 

[Figaro]

Bill de Blasio is an awful mayor ... I can say with certainty that New York has declined considerably between when I visited in the late 2000s under Bloomberg and the last time in 2015. Tbh, Giuliani was the best mayor, which few people unfortunately admit.

 

[FuturePAF]

Same in the Boston area. Property taxes are only 1/4 of the nicer suburbs for the same property value.




View attachment 666129
NYC commuter rail stretches well outside the city limits. So suburban homes within the fingers will always be a safe bet.



View attachment 666130
Same situation for Boston.

Rents will go down and people who couldn’t afford it in the past, will now move in closer to the city they always wanted to live in. Those that tough’d out in the 70s, 80s, and the 90s got to enjoy it as it came back in the 2000s.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Earnings for apartment owners show the pain of urban flight

Decidedly weak quarterly earnings reports from major apartment REITs this week paint a bleak picture for some of the largest urban rental markets.

www.cnbc.com

OCT 29 2020
Earnings for apartment owners show the pain of urban flight

• Decidedly weak quarterly earnings reports from major apartment real estate investment trusts this week paint a bleak picture for some of the largest urban rental markets.
• The coronavirus pandemic has caused thousands of apartment dwellers to seek safer, larger, single-family suburban homes, causing vacancies in high-rise rental buildings to spike.

Decidedly weak quarterly earnings reports from major apartment real estate investment trusts this week paint a bleak picture for some of the largest urban rental markets. The coronavirus pandemic has caused thousands of apartment dwellers to seek safer, larger, single-family suburban homes, causing vacancies in high-rise rental buildings to spike.

Equity Residential, whose portfolio consists mostly of mid- to high-rise buildings on the East and West coasts, saw a particularly bleak third quarter. Its stock is down about 43% year to date. Occupancy and average rent rates fell and will likely drop further in the coming quarters.


Nearly a quarter of its holdings are in downtown San Francisco, Manhattan, Brooklyn, New York, Boston and Cambridge, Massachusetts. Those are the markets most impacted, as they have seen large outflows of tenants moving either to smaller cities or the suburbs. As businesses reopened over the summer, there were some improvements, but no guarantees.

“We have seen scattered positive signs in the form of modestly improved renewals and higher application volumes,” said Equity Residential’s CEO, Mark Parrell, on a conference call with analysts. “I caution, however, that market conditions remain too volatile and the timing of developments on mitigating the virus too unclear to suggest that we have turned a corner.”

The company did not release any earnings guidance, but Parrell added, “We do want you to be aware that our financial results will weaken over subsequent quarters, as the full impact from the pandemic works its way through our rent roll.”

AvalonBay, which has a similar geographical mix to Equity Residential, also posted disappointing earnings for its third quarter and also did not provide any guidance. Its stock is down about 35% year to date.

“The adverse future impact of the pandemic on the Company’s results of operations cannot be reasonably estimated, and could be material,” according to AvalonBay’s earnings release.




While it is impossible to get firm numbers on the much-discussed urban flight phenomenon, analysts say it is clearly in the earnings numbers.

“The proof is that rents are down double digits, plus the AvalonBays and Equity Residentials of the world are offering 2-months free on top of that in the major Coastal Urban Markets,” said Alexander Goldfarb, a REIT analyst at Piper Sandler. “When DC, long a laggard, and Baltimore are the best relative apartment markets for companies like Equity Residential and AvalonBay, you know things have changed.”

While there has definitely been some bargain hunting among tenants in large cities, Equity Residential noted clearly on the call that it is not losing tenants to competitors. Its residents are relocating.

And that may benefit REITs in the Sunbelt, where Northeasterners are moving. Camden Property Trust, based in Houston, is seeing far better results and less impact from the pandemic. Its holdings are in Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. Its stock is down just 16% year to date.

Essex Property Trust, despite being largely in California and Seattle, has just 10% of its portfolio in urban cores.

“Its limited (10%) exposure to urban markets is proving its worth, in that occupancy is flat year-over-year, at 96% overall. That said, Los Angeles and San Francisco showed occupancy losses, which drove revenues down double digits in the quarter,” added Goldfarb. Essex’s stock has fallen 34% year to date.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

The only reason why anyone lives in Downtown is due to requirement of getting on work on Time beat rush hour every one hates being in Downtown , I hate downtowns any city

I like Easy life of Suburbs , enjoyable atmosphere

 

[xyxmt]

You guys know that your property taxes go to support the school systems?

I always wonder where do federal taxes go since everything is provided by state or local govt. I think it goes to CIA to destroy other countries?