So a dear friend of mine (well connected, trustworthy) expressed to me that short of a miracle the experiment is over - that the country is on a pathway to implosion and degeneration of governance. He also stated that the lot at the top is lost completely. That their ideas are so "hair-brain" that he is scared when he listens to their ideas. He is also of the view that a cycle that began with Musharraf has accelerated. Some key takeaways:
1) After the political class, some within the armed forces (at high levels) are compromised (this is discussed in some circles) - counter intel is slowly being made toothless. ISI external wing is being clipped (very carefully), a process that began with Musharraf.
2) With Musharraf - came a centralization of control and power in the office of the COAS that essentially killed the army
3) JAG is dead
4) Their is a "loot-maar" of epic proportions
5) Army is not in a position to war fight with poor logistics, stores and maintenance (readiness reports are fudged) - however there are some units and war fighting formations that are still capable - but in general terms things are slowly falling apart
6) There are massive monetary scandals and corruption in the army led public outfits like FWO and a few others that are hemorrhaging and will need bail-outs (some have already been bailed out quietly). Basically some of these outfits are insolvent.
7) The plan is to build a single party system (akin to Chinese model) and there is no intention to turn back to an honest electoral democracy
8) There is a plan to sell government assets en-mass
9) The lot at the top is willing to deal with anyone to sell anything
10) There is likely a massive land grab - north of a million acres of land in Punjab
11) Insurgencies in Baluchistan and KP cannot be quelled and are likely to see an uptick
12) There are some quiet rumblings on SPD that I cannot discuss but very sad to see - this was historically a redline. Seems not so anymore
13) Interim government is likely to extend beyond 3 months - potentially longer with a likely extension
14) Chinese plundering raw materials at massive scale
The State has stopped functioning with all decisions centrally curated. Economic misery to increase, national assets disposed of at throwaway rates (with kickbacks). Inflation and food insecurity becoming staple for Pakistanis. Fuel shortages and power challenges getting worse. Businesses shuttering, people with means and education emigrating. Very bleak and sad outlook.
