Funnily enough, Trump, Boris and Modi all seem to have same ideology.
Yes. It's not just them. The entire world is going protectionist. I believe that new business models will emerge because of this.
Indeed, one Indian company - Infosys, has created over 10,000 jobs in the US because of increased restriction on visas. And now the Indian Government has started negotiating visas as a trade commodity/concession with different countries including US and European states. So new ways and means will start emerging.
This is something everyone is waiting to see. Frankly speaking, as much as it may be painful, I'm afraid the setback for the Indian economy - including Pakistan, could well be quite bad. China will pull through, even after this COVID-19 pandemic.
Yes. I firmly believe that India has been set back by at least 5 years because of this. The Chief Economic Advisor to the GoI estimated in 2017 that
extreme poverty in India will end when the per capita GDP reaches $6000. Right now, India is at $2000. That means to end just
extreme poverty India needs to triple its per capita GDP. Ordinarily, that would have taken around 10-12 years. Now with this, it may be closer to 15-17 years. It's an unmitigated disaster.
The
only positive from this I can see from this is improved State capacities. One or two decades back the military would have been called in as Governments (State and Center) did not have adequate governance capabilities. Today GoI is mostly able to handle a disaster of unprecedented proportions without depending on the military. The military has been mobilized for support in specific areas but broadly they are not on the frontlines of this. This means that Governments (state and center) have become more efficient in reaching the people. Also, the seriousness with which this is being handled also implies that state capacities will continue to increase across the board.
I won't be able to comment on the Pakistani economy as I don't follow it in detail. I do understand that the Pakistani PM has refused to lock down the country. This may lead to a catastrophe. Additionally, there were some reforms that were being executed under IMF conditions which will definitely be abandoned now. So it's a lost opportunity to introduce reforms that bring make businesses formal.
On China, it may pull through economically but it will pay a price politically.