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Neighborhood First: EAM Jaishankar to visit Bangladesh next week

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Neighborhood First: EAM Jaishankar to visit Bangladesh next week

By: Huma Siddiqui

Published: August 16, 2019 4:39:23 PM

https://www.financialexpress.com/de...hankar-to-visit-bangladesh-next-week/1677321/U

Bangladesh, has reached out to India seeking help in handling the huge influx of Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar.

S-Jaishankar.jpg
Jaishankar has met with his Bangladeshi counterpart Dr. A K Momen recently in New Delhi and prior to that on the sidelines of the 5th Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia or CICA in Tajikistan.

In his first visit as external affairs minister, S Jaishankar will be visiting Dhaka next week in an effort to further strengthen the relations between the two countries. Topping the agenda of his two day visit from Aug 20 to the neighboring country is expected to focus on illegal immigration, connectivity, Rohingya crisis as well as water sharing of 54 rivers including the long-pending Teesta River water issue.

Jaishankar has met with his Bangladeshi counterpart Dr. A K Momen recently in New Delhi and prior to that on the sidelines of the 5th Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia or CICA in Tajikistan.

The two countries over the last three years have inked almost 60 plus agreements, and have also resolved the decades-old land boundary as well as maritime issues. However the issue of sharing the Teesta River water continues to remain on the table for discussion.

The visit according to officers is reciprocal and is ahead of the forthcoming visit of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, in early winter. This will be Hasina’s first visit after assuming office for the third time consecutively.

Besides connectivity and trade-related issues, when Hasina meets Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the expected agenda would include all bilateral and regional issues, sharing of water in 54 common rivers and the Teesta in particular.

What is Teesta issue?

In 2011 the deal for water sharing of this river was expected to be inked in 2011, but had to be pushed back as there were objections raised by West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee.

The water of the Teesta River is very critical for Bangladesh.

The deal despite best efforts by the government has been getting delayed as the West Bengal government is raising objections.

Rohingya crisis

Bangladesh, has reached out to India seeking help in handling the huge influx of Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar. Dhaka has asked New Delhi to urge Myanmar to take back the refugees who have taken shelter in the country.

It is estimated according to the United Nations that more than 745,000 Rohingya Muslims have fled Myanmar’s Rakhine state and have entered into Bangladesh.

New Delhi has already talked to the Myanmar government and its military authorities and urged them to bring back Rohingyas as soon as possible.

Illegal Immigration

If India insists on Bangladesh to accept illegal immigration relationship will sour, says an expert.

Sharing his views with Financial Express Online, Gautam Lahiri, Bangladesh Expert has urged India to handle the issue of illegal immigration carefully and to ignore domestic compulsion amidst apprehensions that Bangladesh might get closer to China.

Due to her domestic politics compulsion, Hasina may not be in a position to tow India’s line, he says.

In his view, when Jaishankar visits Dhaka, as an astute diplomat, he will try to find a middle ground on this issue.

“India is trying to woo Bangladesh by committing to Teesta agreement and in lieu of that South Block wants some concession on the illegal immigration issue,” Lahiri opines.

Though the relations between the two countries have been very strong, in recent months there have been some issues related to the contentious issue of ‘illegal immigration’ from Bangladesh that is affecting the relationship.

In a recent meeting between Home Minister of Bangladesh Asaduzzaman Khan and India’s Home Minister Amit Shah has proposed that there should be a mechanism to deal with the growing illegal immigration.

According to Lahiri, the ongoing process of the National Register of Citizen (NRC) in Assam was not mentioned, however for the first time India’s concern regarding the illegal movement of undocumented persons across the border was raised. Bangladesh maintains that no such migration is taking place to India after 1971.

While there may be a difference of opinion on the illegal immigrants, India will fully support Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s development agenda, Lahiri adds.
 
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In his first visit as external affairs minister, S Jaishankar will be visiting Dhaka next week in an effort to further strengthen the relations between the two countries.
On one hand, India is bullying the Muslims in Assam and Kashmir, and on the other, it is sending its FM to visit BD a Muslim-majority country. We are too fed up with this kind of Indian deceptive love. India is very insincere as a country. It lacks integrity.

@Axomiya_lora, the Chinese-Assamese
 
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On one hand, India is bullying the Muslims in Assam and Kashmir, and on the other, it is sending its FM to visit BD a Muslim-majority country. We are too fed up with this kind of Indian deceptive love. India is very insincere as a country. It lacks integrity.

@Axomiya_lora, the Chinese-Assamese
Throw an egg on his face when he visits Dhaka and threaten him not to come to Bangladesh any more. Grow a spine and do something concrete instead of this incessant whining, and see where that gets you.
 
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Throw an egg on his face when he visits Dhaka and threaten him not to come to Bangladesh any more. Grow a spine and do something concrete instead of this incessant whining, and see where that gets you.
I guess, your FM has a hidden agenda. He comes here to understand the BD troop movements in times of soon-to-be Pak-India border conflicts.

I wish BD mobilizes about 150,000 of its troops to its western border under the pretext of military exercise and lock India's 500,000 troops there. It will cause less headache for the PA troops in India's west. Take note of the IA cantonments around BD, it is already surrounded by 300,000 IA troops.
 
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Take note of the IA cantonments around BD, it is already surrounded by 300,000 IA troops.
But some of your countrymen think that it is your country that's surrounded NE and can take over at a moment's notice. Please hand them a reality check, and a geography book.
He comes here to understand the BD troop movements in times of soon-to-be Pak-India border conflicts.
He will go to your Shonar Bangla as a courtesy trip after assuming charge as FM. Is that so difficult for a smarty pants to understand..
 
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Take note of the IA cantonments around BD, it is already surrounded by 300,000 IA troops.
This is not true. This are the divisional headquarters of eastern command of Indian army. Look at their positions. Except for 20th mountain division of 13th corps, all other divisions are many hundreds of km away from Bangladesh border. Almost all of these are mountain divisions and are geared against China not Bangladesh. Mostly in Arunachal Pradesh, Upper Assam and Sikkim and other distant north eastern states at least 500-700 km away from Bangladesh border. The 17th corps has 2 division, one at Panagarh, although in west Bengal, but it is near to Jharkhand state, at least 300 km away from Bangladesh border and another division at Pathankot, Punjab! It is actually Bangladesh, which has set up it's army cantonments nearer to Indian border.
Components[edit]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Command_(India)

Out of 40 division in Indian army, 10 division are in Eastern sides, mostly geared at China. Most of the rest are in Punjab and Kashmir facing Pakistan which they can not divert. Bangladesh army also has 10 division strength, but these divisions are under equipped. Plus, our air force is very weak. If we can develop this 10 division at full strength and build up air force of 10 squadron fighter jet(with 5 squadron 4+ generation) and mid range air defence covering our air space, then Bangladesh will achieve a minimum conventional deterrence against India. This is not something out of reach for Bangladesh or will put big pressure on our economy, only thing lacking is political good will.
But some of your countrymen think that it is your country that's surrounded NE
This is true in practical sense, north eastern states share 98 percent of it's border with Bangladesh, China and Myanmar and only 2 percent with rest of India. Land locked North East India is practically sandwiched between Bangladesh and China. This region do not add strength to India rather weakness and headache. So, calling India is surrounding Bangladesh on three sides because of north East is meaningless. More practical term should be 'Bangladesh almost severed north east from the rest of India and created all sorts of logistical and security nightmare for the later'.
Please hand them a reality check, and a geography book
What reality check? We do not face any problem for the presence of North east India. It is rather the opposite. Even in a hypothetical military conflict scenario with India, we do not face any logistical problem. Our logistics are short and simple. We can deploy troops and materials at any direction easily on demand. Bangladesh will have same logistical advantage of what Israel enjoy in it's conflict with surrounding Arab states. Our logistics are short, compact and intact, While for India. it is long, fragmented and strenuous. Heavy artillery and MLRS bombing at Siliguri corridor may cut off Indian chain of logistics and isolate North eastern theatre. So, even in military conflict, India got no advantage over Bangladesh for the presence of it's North east. Do you know, what is the greatest fear of Indian military strategists regarding north east India? It is, some day Bangladesh might become a hostile, militarily powerful state like Pakistan and 'conspire' with China to jointly invade North east India to obliterate Indian presence from there once and for all. This is the main reason, India panic disproportionately each time Bangladesh acquire any significant military hardware or cement ties with China.
 
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This is not true. This are the divisional headquarters of eastern command of Indian army. Look at their positions. Except for 20th mountain division of 13th corps, all other divisions are many hundreds of km away from Bangladesh border. Almost all of these are mountain divisions and are geared against China not Bangladesh. Mostly in Arunachal Pradesh, Upper Assam and Sikkim and other distant north eastern states at least 500-700 km away from Bangladesh border. The 17th corps has 2 division, one at Panagarh, although in west Bengal, but it is near to Jharkhand state, at least 300 km away from Bangladesh border and another division at Pathankot, Punjab! It is actually Bangladesh, which has set up it's army cantonments nearer to Indian border.
Components[edit]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Command_(India)

Out of 40 division in Indian army, 10 division are in Eastern sides, mostly geared at China. Most of the rest are in Punjab and Kashmir facing Pakistan which they can not divert. Bangladesh army also has 10 division strength, but these divisions are under equipped. Plus, our air force is very weak. If we can develop this 10 division at full strength and build up air force of 10 squadron fighter jet(with 5 squadron 4+ generation) and mid range air defence covering our air space, then Bangladesh will achieve a minimum conventional deterrence against India. This is not something out of reach for Bangladesh or will put big pressure on our economy, only thing lacking is political good will.

This is true in practical sense, north eastern states share 98 percent of it's border with Bangladesh, China and Myanmar and only 2 percent with rest of India. Land locked North East India is practically sandwiched between Bangladesh and China. This region do not add strength to India rather weakness and headache. So, calling India is surrounding Bangladesh on three sides because of north East is meaningless. More practical term should be 'Bangladesh almost severed north east from the rest of India and created all sorts of logistical and security nightmare for the later'.

What reality check? We do not face any problem for the presence of North east India. It is rather the opposite. Even in a hypothetical military conflict scenario with India, we do not face any logistical problem. Our logistics are short and simple. We can deploy troops and materials at any direction easily on demand. Bangladesh will have same logistical advantage of what Israel enjoy in it's conflict with surrounding Arab states. Our logistics are short, compact and intact, While for India. it is long, fragmented and strenuous. Heavy artillery and MLRS bombing at Siliguri corridor may cut off Indian chain of logistics and isolate North eastern theatre. So, even in military conflict, India got no advantage over Bangladesh for the presence of it's North east. Do you know, what is the greatest fear of Indian military strategists regarding north east India? It is, some day Bangladesh might become a hostile, militarily powerful state like Pakistan and 'conspire' with China to jointly invade North east India to obliterate Indian presence from there once and for all. This is the main reason, India panic disproportionately each time Bangladesh acquire any significant military hardware or cement ties with China.

Not all 10 divisions are under eequipped. I won't go to details due to official secrecy, but strike elements of BA can mobilise more than 50,000 troops, more than couple hundred tanks, ADA, hundreds of Artillery pieces within few minutes notice.
 
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Throw an egg on his face when he visits Dhaka and threaten him not to come to Bangladesh any more. Grow a spine and do something concrete instead of this incessant whining, and see where that gets you.

You expect something like that from the lot that openly get called termites by mota bhai, yet still scurry over to visit in new record numbers as response?...and send a smiling minister regularly to meet with same mota bhai? LOL.

More they get abused, the more servile they act in reality ...prompting the assorted concoction of vindaloo refugees and illegals gathered here for some dream-fantasy time (during break from serving vindaloo) to blow a fuse from that reality.
 
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While an Infantry Division is weak to fight in a mountainous region, the Mountain Division can make war on the plain lands. So, irrespective of definitions, our country is surrounded by 8 IA military Divisions. All the IA Mountain Divisions can be mobilized in a few days' of notice. I can see the cantonments in Dibrugarh, Leimakhong, Missa Mari, Rangia, Gangtok, Binnaguri, Kalimpong, and Panagarh have surrounded our border.

Tezpur, Siliguri, Panagarh are very near to our border. Do you think Nagaland is far away from our border? Troops are not to fight any exclusive border war the way you tried to imply unless there is war in a single front. They can be diverted at any point at the wish of the generals.

No country's military trusts the goodwill of another country's military unless there is a specific treaty between the countries. If BA mobilizes 7 Divisions of its troops near its western border at the time of a Pak-India conflict, it will make the IA generals nervous. They will certainly mobilize two or three times more troops because they will not trust the motive of BA generals even though they say it is for winter exercise.

So, the mobilization of BA troops may decide the fate of a Pak-India war.



upload_2019-8-18_9-8-56.jpeg
 
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Not all 10 divisions are under eequipped. I won't go to details due to official secrecy, but strike elements of BA can mobilise more than 50,000 troops, more than couple hundred tanks, ADA, hundreds of Artillery pieces within few minutes notice.
But don't you think, tanks number are very low? BA has only 340 tanks, while India has 4000. To achieve minimum credible deterrence in armor, we need at least 1000 tanks assuming most of the Indian tanks will remain in Western India. Only 340 tanks for 10 division army is not enough. Same is the case with MLRS, Artillery even APC in BA inventory. All of these things need to increase for at least 3 times in quantity than what currently it has.
 
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But don't you think, tanks number are very low? BA has only 340 tanks, while India has 4000. To achieve minimum credible deterrence in armor, we need at least 1000 tanks assuming most of the Indian tanks will remain in Western India. Only 340 tanks for 10 division army is not enough. Same is the case with MLRS, Artillery even APC in BA inventory. All of these things need to increase for at least 3 times in quantity than what currently it has.
Different sources say different things. One report says as follows:

According to the report, the Bangladesh Army has a total of 534 combat tanks, 942 armoured fighting vehicles, 18 self-propelled artillery guns, and 32 rocket projectors.
 
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Different sources say different things. One report says as follows:

According to the report, the Bangladesh Army has a total of 534 combat tanks, 942 armoured fighting vehicles, 18 self-propelled artillery guns, and 32 rocket projectors.
This is from Global fire power in previous years. Their latest 2019 update count 340 tanks, 521 AFV, 18 self propelled artillery, 340 towed artillery and 36 rocket projectors.

534 figure perhaps count around 300 non-upgraded T-59 Tanks which lays rest in BA inventory.The current active Tanks include-

44 MBT-2000
58 T-69 IIG
174 T-59 G Durjoy (upgraded)
Some light tanks

These comes around 340 in total. I am not sure what is the operational capability of those 300 T-59 in surplus inventory. They are not included in the list means their operational capability is very low to nil. May be their upgradation to Durjoy level will make them countable.
 
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In terms of equipment, all the branches of Bangladesh military remain weak. Almost all are imported and there is very little that our people can produce themselves. It will not change unless the govt/military ask the private sector to produce equipment. All the countries do it and this is how industries are developed, people become keen on mechanical things, and employment grows up.

In the case of BD, it is all import. It is good that Germany, Japan or England did not follow this BD style before WWll, and China is not following it now. BD military will keep on limping without grown legs. BA-owned Ordnance Factories is not a recipe for a growing weapons industry.
 
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On one hand, India is bullying the Muslims in Assam and Kashmir, and on the other, it is sending its FM to visit BD a Muslim-majority country. We are too fed up with this kind of Indian deceptive love. India is very insincere as a country. It lacks integrity.

@Axomiya_lora, the Chinese-Assamese
About 48 years too late
 
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