NCAER lowers India GDP growth forecast to 5% in 2014-15

[TopCat]

“The fundamentals of the economy remain weak with uncertainties prevail. The only redeeming feature is the weakening of inflation and FDI inflows”
In its mid-year review of the economy, the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has lowered its 2014-15 growth forecast for India to 5 per cent. In July, the think-tank had put out a growth forecast of 5.7 per cent. The projection of a slowdown is despite the 5.7 per-cent growth in the first quarter of the current year (April-September) after two successive years of sub-5 per cent growth.



The NCAER’s projection of slower growth during the rest of the year is in line with the Reserve Bank’s forecast.



“The NCAER is predicting a slower growth for the economy unlike other forecasts. The fundamentals of the economy remain weak with uncertainties prevailing.” the think-tank said in its mid-year review.



It said that though the weakening of inflation and the foreign direct investment inflows to be redeeming features, whether they will help it revive the growth prospects will depend on factors such as the extent of damage on agriculture due to deficit rainfall. Another cause for concern, according to the NCAER, is that after recording a strong performance of double-digit growth in May and June, export growth slowed down in subsequent months with a growth rate of just 2.73 per cent in September.



The 2014-15 farm sector growth projected at 2 per cent on account of the uneven distribution and the 17-per cent deficiency in rainfall has pulled down the mid-year gross domestic product (GDP) projection. Last year, the sector had grown 4.7 per cent.



Industry is projected to grow at 2.3 per cent. Official figures had put last year’s growth at 0.4 per cent. Services, which account for more than half of the GDP, are projected to grow at just under 7 per cent, marginally faster than in the previous year. “Manufacturing proved the biggest disappointment,” the review said. The manufacturing sector growth rate contracted by (-) 1 per cent in July and (-) 1.4 per cent in August, respectively.



The NCAER has also projected the Centre’s fiscal deficit at 4.3 per cent of GDP against the budget target of 4.1 per cent.

NCAER lowers India GDP growth forecast to 5% in 2014-15 - The Hindu

Where is the so called imaginary reform subscribed by PDF members?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

If you check the IMF figures for nominal GDP, India's economy has actually been shrinking over the past few years.

List of IMF ranked countries by past and projected GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

India's economy in 2013 was smaller than their economy was in 2011.

For all the boasting about how India's growth story, their economy is actually shrinking. Even developed countries are expanding their GDP, America for example adds half a trillion every year.

Whereas India's economy (as a developing country) should be growing, but it is in fact shrinking.

 

[TopCat]

If you check the IMF figures for nominal GDP, India's economy has actually been shrinking over the past few years.

List of IMF ranked countries by past and projected GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

India's economy in 2013 was smaller than their economy was in 2011.

For all the boasting about how India's growth story, their economy is actually shrinking. Even developed countries are expanding their GDP, America for example adds half a trillion every year.

Whereas India's economy (as a developing country) should be growing, but it is in fact shrinking.

India ran out of steam. Indian main engine of growth was the "web page design" which became so easy that even you can do that with Microsoft Word. So the business are all gone, so is the growth.

 

[notsuperstitious]

If you check the IMF figures for nominal GDP, India's economy has actually been shrinking over the past few years.

List of IMF ranked countries by past and projected GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

India's economy in 2013 was smaller than their economy was in 2011.

For all the boasting about how India's growth story, their economy is actually shrinking. Even developed countries are expanding their GDP, America for example adds half a trillion every year.

Whereas India's economy (as a developing country) should be growing, but it is in fact shrinking.

Measured in Pakistani Rupee, it has actually been growing more than whats commonly believed. Or so would an intellectually challenged person argue.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

“Manufacturing proved the biggest disappointment,” the review said. The manufacturing sector growth rate contracted by (-) 1 per cent in July and (-) 1.4 per cent in August, respectively.

And India's manufacturing sector has been shrinking as well.

So there goes the idea of trying to build a national manufacturing base, which would take 40 years anyway.

China today is already the largest market for industrial robotics, and these industrial robots will get more and more efficient over time. That's in addition to the efficiency gains we get from our national infrastructure and supply chains.

If India tries to follow in our path of large scale industrialization, even with much lower wages they won't be competitive.

Low-end manufacturing is not moving to India, it is actually moving to Southeast Asia. Because they have decent infrastructure, less red tape, and better supply chains.

 

[SarthakGanguly]

And India's manufacturing sector has been shrinking as well.

So there goes the idea of trying to build a national manufacturing base, which would take 40 years anyway.

China today is already the largest market for industrial robotics, and these industrial robots will get more and more efficient over time. That's in addition to the efficiency gains we get from our national infrastructure and supply chains.

If India tries to follow in our path of large scale industrialization, even with much lower wages they won't be competitive.

India should be a failed state by then, considering the best case scenario that she will at least continue to exist.

***

 

[Span]

India ran out of steam. Indian main engine of growth was the "web page design" which became so easy that even you can do that with Microsoft Word. So the business are all gone, so is the growth.

You just went full retard. Never go full retard.

 

[jugad]

India should be a failed state by then, considering the best case scenario that she will at least continue to exist.

*

There's no question of existence it'll be balkanized before we even know, not to mention mass murderer and his forward policy. Doom is inevitable!

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

India should be a failed state by then, considering the best case scenario that she will at least continue to exist.

***

Yes that would be the best case scenario.

India is soon going to be the largest Muslim nation in the world, so another Partition is not off the cards either. Especially with people like Modi running the show.

If another Partition happens, both the resulting parts would be too far behind to catch up in terms of infrastructure and supply chains for mass manufacturing, that will mostly go to Southeast Asia.

 

[SarthakGanguly]

Yes that would be the best case scenario.

India is soon going to be the largest Muslim nation in the world, so another Partition is not off the cards either. Especially with people like Modi running the show.

If another Partition happens, both the resulting parts would be too far behind to catch up in terms of infrastructure and supply chains for mass manufacturing, that will mostly go to Southeast Asia.

Actually the resultant parts won't materialize after India ceases to exist. In a 5 to 10 years within Modi's rule once India becomes a Muslim majority nation India will break naturally. Then Pakistan, Bangladesh and China will have the spoils. It makes no sense to keep a couple of failed nascent states in the subcontinent.

Modi has actually ensured that India will cease to exist in the near future. Even if that does not happen, all Industries from India will shift to nearby countries, mostly to Pakistan, Bangladesh and SE Asia - thus making the former states of India lucrative as forced or cheap labor for the neighboring stable and powerful countries.

***

 

[Morphine]

Yes that would be the best case scenario.

India is soon going to be the largest Muslim nation in the world, so another Partition is not off the cards either. Especially with people like Modi running the show.

If another Partition happens, both the resulting parts would be too far behind to catch up in terms of infrastructure and supply chains for mass manufacturing, that will mostly go to Southeast Asia.

we are here for more than 2000 years, we have seen many communist country coming and going

 

[SarthakGanguly]

we are here for more than 2000 years, we have seen many communist country coming and going

Don't spoil this. Follow me.

 

[Shadow_Hunter]

Yes that would be the best case scenario.

India is soon going to be the largest Muslim nation in the world, so another Partition is not off the cards either. Especially with people like Modi running the show.

If another Partition happens, both the resulting parts would be too far behind to catch up in terms of infrastructure and supply chains for mass manufacturing, that will mostly go to Southeast Asia.

You don't understand sarcasm do you?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

You don't understand sarcasm do you?

I do. @SarthakGanguly is famous for his sarcasm, but I like to respond to him in a serious manner anyway.

 

[Shadow_Hunter]

I do. @SarthakGanguly is famous for his sarcasm, but I like to respond to him in a serious manner anyway.

Continue then. He has posted another reply to you. Please reply in serious manner again. You provide much valued material for the humor of Indians.