Nawaz Sharif foreseen to win 2018 polls: report

[JamD]

Wishing the status quo to continue is a typical patwari thing and totally against the feelings of the masses.

To me voting for the PPP is a bigger sin than voting for patwaris

 

[mingle]

Tax payer money at good use .

 

[war&peace]

To me voting for the PPP is a bigger sin than voting for patwaris

and for me PPP + PMLn = Patwari ..I don't differentiate between the two

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

He's a decent guy. If he had real power in Pakistan, instead of that Jarnail un-shareef, there could have been reasonable peace between India and Pakistan.

 

[Blue Marlin]

I would agree with the OP. I will add that the status quo will continue. The only difference we will see is in Sindh where the vacuum left by PPP and MQM-London is going to be filled by a whole mess of parties: Jamaat-e-Islami, MQM-P, PSP etc. The misery of the people of Sindh and Karachi will likely continue.

PML-N has enough political capital (from luck and/or performance) to come out at the top in Punjab.

I do wonder why the PML-N doesn't try to make inroads into Sindh. Frankly Sindh is ripe for the taking. PTI wanted to initially, but got tunnel vision over "Go Nawaz Go". PTI will retain their power in KPK as they have political capital there.

I expect the status quo to continue. I can't say that's a bad thing per say for Pakistan.

i would have imagined pti making inroads to sindh the ppp is dead.
when's the next election?

I think

Punjab: Noon will win again with 20% less seats

Sindh: PPP will win again with MQM and Jamat-e-Islami filling the vaccum left by PPP

Balochistan: Noon will win with bigger margin than before

KPK: PTI will win with bigger margin. May be 20% more seats

National Assembly: The end result is something like this

Noon: 95 seats
PTI: 50 seats
PPP: 40 seats
MQM: 22
JUI-F: 4-8 seats
Jamat e Islami: 4-8 seats
Q League: 3-5
Indepedent: rest of the seats

The coalition government by PTI and PPP can form the government or otherwise Noon once again.

who's noon? not heard of that one before.

 

[JamD]

i would have imagined pti making inroads to sindh the ppp is dead.
when's the next election?
.

The next election is in 2018.

What PPP has done to Sindh makes it ripe for the taking. I sometimes wonder why PML-N doesn't try to make inroads in Sindh. Say what you will about PML-N, AT LEAST they developed Lahore. Look what PPP did to Karachi and Sindh.

PTI tried and gave up too soon. PTI was actually making some inroads into Karachi around the 2013 general elections. Unfortunately, PTI's focus has now been elsewhere and they've flushed their political capital in Karachi down the drain. The sorry state of PTI in Karachi/Sindh can be judged by this news story about a by election:

 

[Icewolf]

He's the prime minister Pakistan deserves, not needs

 

[Syed1.]

To me voting for the PPP is a bigger sin than voting for patwaris

They are both different sides of the same coin. One and the same. I wouldn't be surprised if a few years down the line one of the Bhutto heirs to the throne (Bilawal, Asifa or Bhakhtwar) is married into the Sharif clan.

Only hope for Pakistan is PTI and Imran, otherwise be ready for decades of gulami.

There was a recent survey which revealed, half of the young folks in Karachi want to move out of the country permanently. If Nawaz was doing such a good job then why is the bulk of the most educated youth in Pakistan seeking greener pastures abroad?

Karachi is my home town and I visit it every year and I can say with complete certainty that whether PPP is in the center or PML-N is in the center Karachi will continue to look like a huge slum and all the money generated in the biggest economic center of the country will continue to go into the hands of the politicians or some of it is used in Lahore or Garhi Khuda Bhaksh/Larkana.

 

[JamD]

They are both different sides of the same coin. One and the same. I wouldn't be surprised if a few years down the line one of the Bhutto heirs to the throne (Bilawal, Asifa or Bhakhtwar) is married into the Sharif clan.

Only hope for Pakistan is PTI and Imran, otherwise be ready for decades of gulami.

There was a recent survey which revealed, half of the young folks in Karachi want to move out of the country permanently. If Nawaz was doing such a good job then why is the bulk of the most educated youth in Pakistan seeking greener pastures abroad?

Karachi is my home town and I visit it every year and I can say with complete certainty that whether PPP is in the center or PML-N is in the center Karachi will continue to look like a huge slum and all the money generated in the biggest economic center of the country will continue to go into the hands of the politicians or some of it is used in Lahore or Garhi Khuda Bhaksh/Larkana.

I understand what you are saying and I agree with a lot of it.

But I make one distinction. PML-N and Lahore. PPP and Karachi (they don't even develop Larhkana or Garhi Khuda Bukhsh). Being from Karachi myself, this is a sore spot for me. I am weary. I want someone to end PPP (in Sindh), and at this point I don't care who does it.

 

[Blue Marlin]

The next election is in 2018.

What PPP has done to Sindh makes it ripe for the taking. I sometimes wonder why PML-N doesn't try to make inroads in Sindh. Say what you will about PML-N, AT LEAST they developed Lahore. Look what PPP did to Karachi and Sindh.
View attachment 368469

PTI tried and gave up too soon. PTI was actually making some inroads into Karachi around the 2013 general elections. Unfortunately, PTI's focus has now been elsewhere and they've flushed their political capital in Karachi down the drain. The sorry state of PTI in Karachi/Sindh can be judged by this news story about a by election:
View attachment 368468

honestly my knowledge is being stretched here. i know ppp because of zadari, and he ruined the country. the pml which currently hold power has done very well. i was just speaking to @Zaki a few days days ago comparing how much load shedding accrues now as compared to 5 years ago. and the improvement is half.
what about balochistan? thats not been mentioned? id imagine pti would be ideal for it.
sindh is a sketchy one id assume. but pml would find it difficult to get a foothold but, hey nothing is ever easy. pti and pml can do a surgical strike there (sorry couldn't help my self)

one thing is interesting ppp is being run the uni graduate bilawal, is it worth giving him a chance since he has a western education, or would it be a case of the apple falling not to far from the tree?

 

[JamD]

honestly my knowledge is being stretched here. i know ppp because of zadari, and he ruined the country. the pml which currently hold power has done very well. i was just speaking to @Zaki a few days days ago comparing how much load shedding accrues now as compared to 5 years ago. and the improvement is half.
what about balochistan? thats not been mentioned? id imagine pti would be ideal for it.
sindh is a sketchy one id assume. but pml would find it difficult to get a foothold but, hey nothing is ever easy. pti and pml can do a surgical strike there (sorry couldn't help my self)

one thing is interesting ppp is being run the uni graduate bilawal, is it worth giving him a chance since he has a western education, or would it be a case of the apple falling not to far from the tree?

Even me not mentioning Balochistan kind of tells you the problem. Frankly my knowledge about the issues of Balochistan is limited and the province's politics has little effect on the center (unless it becomes a security situation). This is why no party really tries to win over Balochistan. I hope with the development of Balochistan the stakes would get higher and our parties will finally focus on it.

I am not in Pakistan right now but I hear the loadshedding issue is getting better.

I don't have much hope for PPP. Bilawal is just a face, nothing more. I will quote a post I wrote somewhere else on what I think of the politics of Sindh. PPP has no reason to change their ways. Nobody challenges them, not the voter, no other viable political party. This sounds strange but that's how it is.

I think the problem of Sindh and Karachi is one of structure. I wouldn't guess if the structure was made to do what it's doing, or it's doing because of the way it is structured. That is a chicken or egg first issue.

Here's what I mean by this:
Sindh is really two things economically:
A. Karachi/Hyderabad
B. Rural Sindh.
This rural/urban divide isn't this stark anywhere else in Pakistan which makes this situation unique. A has massive resources which can be tapped into and numerous opportunities for extraction of wealth (legally and illegally). It doesn't have enough representation in the Sindh Assembly to decide its own fate. B in stark contrast is extremely poor with little or no development and cut off from the mainstream. It provides little opportunities for wealth extraction but it has enough representation in the Sindh Assembly to decide the entire province's fate.

This situation can be thought of a force of nature which shapes the politics of the province:
PPP uses B to gain power over the province and use A for wealth extraction (mostly illegal). Of course this also keeps the select few people from B also well-fed allowing PPP to maintain their electoral grip on B. When the PPP has such an "easy" source for wealth generation, they have no economic incentive to put back anything in either A or B. A is simply too big to fail and can be milked endlessly.
In this situation augmented by the PPP as explained above comes the MQM which most likely starts off to oppose the status quo of PPP's wealth extraction of A. This is THE reason for the population of Karachi voting for MQM so consistently. In comes reality crashing down. The situation hasn't really changed. The only times MQM is able to deliver with their seats (which are not enough to control the province) is by uneasy alliances with the center or province. Needless to say this model of development isn't sustainable. MQM soon figures out it is more profitable to extract wealth by using its grasp over A. Enter the bhattas and the law & order situation of Karachi.
For a long time the PPP and MQM existed in this sick symbiotic relationship sucking on the entire province, putting nothing back in. Then Altaf Hussain's antics have knocked MQM down (temporarily at least). This has given PPP even more freedom to pursue its wealth extraction model which it continues to do so to this day.

The Future:
It is a no brainer that Karachi needs a solid representation in the Sindh Assembly which previously was provided by MQM (however way). It is to be seen how the MQM-P, MQM-L, and PSP khichrhi pans out. Unfortunately, it is my belief that as long as the current structure remains, a simple change of faces won't fix anything. Making A a separate province seems to be the only solution to me. It will take away PPPs ability to retain power over B without developing B. This means B gets the development it has deserved and needed since 1947. Also this will take away the siege mentality of the mohajir that exists in Karachi which forces the people to vote for people like Altaf Hussain. The government of A will be held accountable for development and not just for trying to fight off (fruitlessly) the control of the PPP.


...but then I'm just some guy.

Source: https://defence.pk/threads/karachi-...ties-in-the-world.472237/page-2#ixzz4VmvRhXjp

 

[Blue Marlin]

Even me not mentioning Balochistan kind of tells you the problem. Frankly my knowledge about the issues of Balochistan is limited and the province's politics has little effect on the center (unless it becomes a security situation). This is why no party really tries to win over Balochistan. I hope with the development of Balochistan the stakes would get higher and our parties will finally focus on it.

I am not in Pakistan right now but I hear the loadshedding issue is getting better.

I don't have much hope for PPP. Bilawal is just a face, nothing more. I will quote a post I wrote somewhere else on what I think of the politics of Sindh. PPP has no reason to change their ways. Nobody challenges them, not the voter, no other viable political party. This sounds strange but that's how it is.

I think the problem of Sindh and Karachi is one of structure. I wouldn't guess if the structure was made to do what it's doing, or it's doing because of the way it is structured. That is a chicken or egg first issue.

Here's what I mean by this:
Sindh is really two things economically:
A. Karachi/Hyderabad
B. Rural Sindh.
This rural/urban divide isn't this stark anywhere else in Pakistan which makes this situation unique. A has massive resources which can be tapped into and numerous opportunities for extraction of wealth (legally and illegally). It doesn't have enough representation in the Sindh Assembly to decide its own fate. B in stark contrast is extremely poor with little or no development and cut off from the mainstream. It provides little opportunities for wealth extraction but it has enough representation in the Sindh Assembly to decide the entire province's fate.

This situation can be thought of a force of nature which shapes the politics of the province:
PPP uses B to gain power over the province and use A for wealth extraction (mostly illegal). Of course this also keeps the select few people from B also well-fed allowing PPP to maintain their electoral grip on B. When the PPP has such an "easy" source for wealth generation, they have no economic incentive to put back anything in either A or B. A is simply too big to fail and can be milked endlessly.
In this situation augmented by the PPP as explained above comes the MQM which most likely starts off to oppose the status quo of PPP's wealth extraction of A. This is THE reason for the population of Karachi voting for MQM so consistently. In comes reality crashing down. The situation hasn't really changed. The only times MQM is able to deliver with their seats (which are not enough to control the province) is by uneasy alliances with the center or province. Needless to say this model of development isn't sustainable. MQM soon figures out it is more profitable to extract wealth by using its grasp over A. Enter the bhattas and the law & order situation of Karachi.
For a long time the PPP and MQM existed in this sick symbiotic relationship sucking on the entire province, putting nothing back in. Then Altaf Hussain's antics have knocked MQM down (temporarily at least). This has given PPP even more freedom to pursue its wealth extraction model which it continues to do so to this day.

The Future:
It is a no brainer that Karachi needs a solid representation in the Sindh Assembly which previously was provided by MQM (however way). It is to be seen how the MQM-P, MQM-L, and PSP khichrhi pans out. Unfortunately, it is my belief that as long as the current structure remains, a simple change of faces won't fix anything. Making A a separate province seems to be the only solution to me. It will take away PPPs ability to retain power over B without developing B. This means B gets the development it has deserved and needed since 1947. Also this will take away the siege mentality of the mohajir that exists in Karachi which forces the people to vote for people like Altaf Hussain. The government of A will be held accountable for development and not just for trying to fight off (fruitlessly) the control of the PPP.


...but then I'm just some guy.

Source: https://defence.pk/threads/karachi-...ties-in-the-world.472237/page-2#ixzz4VmvRhXjp

geeze for a brief moment there thought you wrote all that just now.
anyway. the pml has a good opportunity here. follow the the colonialism ideology. go there bring them development, food, water, electricity, schools and hospitals and they will find it suicidal to chose another party obviously word spreads and they will gain popularity in Karachi too (the poor areas) and by that you have a large amount of the population in your favour and you can pick the rest be default.

 

[Kabira]

2) He has strong root in baradari system and giving one seat to elder of a particular cast makes him attract thousands of votes. People don't vote on personal choices as they would come with excuses like oh we like PTI, Jamat-e-Islami but unfortunately my cousin/friend/relative is supporter of Noon League so I have promised to obey his request

I don't think it work like that at all. Do you mean to say opposite candidate to N doesn't belong to any braderi? Plus that elder thing doesn't exist in punjab or at least north central punjab. What you are describing is sardari/wadera system of sindh/balochistan.

 

[Musafir117]

PPP come back in Punjab with more reasonable seats at what they got before. Zardari all open his treasure to come back and can buy Lotas. Punjab politics are all about money, there will be allied govt whoever in majority The establishment not goona give free hand to pmln as before.
So Pmln PPP PTI does need other alliance.
Pmln have already JUIF in kpk and NP in Balouchistan.
PPP need to get ANP and MQM
PTI have JI ( but JI is thali ka baingen ) could go anywhere. Interesting days ahead what PTI gonna do if they need to make an alliance.

 

[mingle]

PPP come back in Punjab with more reasonable seats at what they got before. Zardari all open his treasure to come back and can buy Lotas. Punjab politics are all about money, there will be allied govt whoever in majority The establishment not goona give free hand to pmln as before.
So Pmln PPP PTI does need other alliance.
Pmln have already JUIF in kpk and NP in Balouchistan.
PPP need to get ANP and MQM
PTI have JI ( but JI is thali ka baingen ) could go anywhere. Interesting days ahead what PTI gonna do if they need to make an alliance.

Zardari no matter whom he buy can't win anything in PU .If anyone won on ppp ticket has to win by himself .wise electables don't waste theior time and money .theior bet is PTI and PMLN if anyone could not fit in these 2 will go to ppp .candidates r wise so the voters r .