Closing the border to NATO trucks is a sign of a fracturing relationship
Oct 7th 2010
IT IS hard to say which is deteriorating faster: the Pakistani governments ability to deal with the countrys innumerable problems, or its scratchy, ambivalent relationship with America. The past few days have seen an increase in tension after NATO forces made two unauthorised incursions into Pakistan. The second, on September 30th, which killed two Pakistani soldiers in the north-western Kuram region, triggered a swift reaction.
Responding to growing public outrage over cross-border drone attacks by the American-led forces in Afghanistan and to revelations in a recent book by Bob Woodward that 3,000 CIA operatives are active in its tribal regions, Pakistan closed the main supply route for NATO convoys. The interior minister, Rehman Malik, said: We will have to see whether we are allies or enemies.
Since then things have got worse. Unable to get through the main Torkham crossing in the Khyber Pass, NATO convoys that bring up to 80% of the supplies needed by international forces in Afghanistan from Karachi in the south have been sitting ducks. Since the border closure there have been half a dozen attacks by Taliban militants on the convoys, one involving 14 gunmen in three pickup trucks who opened fire on a large group of fuel tankers near Quetta, torching at least ten and killing one of the drivers. Reflecting the governments apparent indifference to (or even acquiescence in) the attacks, the local police chief said it was up to NATO to provide security for its convoys.
The border may soon be reopened, when a joint inquiry by NATO and Pakistan into the helicopter attack agrees on an acceptable form of words. Pakistan wants an apology and promises of no recurrence; on October 6th Americas ambassador in Islamabad duly grovelled, but the commander of NATO forces, General David Petraeus, could only promise to try harder not to repeat the mistake. The underlying problem of insurgents using North Waziristan as a haven from which to launch attacks and assist jihadist terrorists remains.
The past week has seen many reports, mostly emanating from Islamabad, of a well-advanced al-Qaeda plot to launch commando attacks in Berlin, Paris and London similar to those that took place in Mumbai in 2008. The rumours have been played down by European intelligence agencies, which describe the threat as non-specific. But there were a record 26 Predator drone attacks last month, a spike in activity that suggests something is going on. One attack, on September 8th, appears to have killed Abdul Jabbar, a British citizen who, according to intelligence sources in Pakistan, was being trained to lead a hit squad in Europe. Pakistans ambassador to America also revealed that another strike, on October 4th, killed eight militants, including four Germans.
Given the reluctance of the Pakistani authorities to take on the terrorist groups in North Waziristan, particularly the brutal Haqqani network that is believed to have links with Pakistans ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence agency), and given growing public fury over encroachments on the countrys sovereignty, the tension is unlikely to go away. Even the one potentially hopeful development this weekreports of American-backed secret talks between the Afghan Quetta Shura Taliban and the government of Hamid Karzaicould cause new strain if Pakistan reacts badly to being left out.
A breakdown in relations between America and Pakistan is a real and dangerous possibility.