Russia will use Fighter Jets to protect its airspace
also S-300 , S-400 and S-500 Air Defense Systems ..... nobody can enter Russian airspace
and Europe doesnt have strategic strike capability
but Russian TU-22 , TU-90 , TU-160 and MIG-31 can carry 660 km KALIBR and 2.400 km KH-101 Cruise missiles , also 1.000 km KH-32 supersonic anti ship missile and 2.000 km KINZHAL hypersonic Ballistic Missile and 3.000km RK-55 land-based and submarine-launched cruise missile to destroy air bases and Aircraft Carries in the UK and France , and game over !
Russia easly can invade Baltics and Polland ... and Europe can not stop Russia
1) all Air bases and air defense Systems will be destroyed by Russia in Baltics and Polland
-- 500km ISKANDER Tactical Ballistic Missile
-- 700km ISKANDER-K land based Cruise Missile
-- 660-1.500km KALIBR Submarine , Warship and Air launched Cruise Missile
-- 500km ZIRCON Submarine launched hypersonic Cruise Missile
-- 600km KH-65SE air launched Cruise Missile
-- 3.000km RK-55 land-based and submarine-launched cruise missile
-- 2.000 km KINZHAL air launched hypersonic Ballistic Missile
2) and Russia can creat A2/AD capability over Baltics and Polland
-- S400 and S500 Air Defense Systems to engage on Aircrafts from 400-500 km away
-- Early Warning Radars and Electronic Warfare Systems
-- Coastal Defense Systems
3) Russia can deploy 1 million soldiers and thousands of Tanks , IFVs , Howitzers , MLRS , mobile Air Defense Systems in Baltics and Polland
4) Russian Airforce SU-27 , SU-30 , SU-34 , SU-35 , SU-57 , MIG-29 , MIG-31 and MIG-35 Fighter Jets have enough combat radius to operate over the Baltics and Polland
RESULT : Europe can not invade Russia but Russia can take Baltics and Polland
and the UK,France,Germany,Italy can not stop Russia without the US and Turkiye
let's break this down. time, distance and terrain. Remember Not all of Russia's Ground Forces are located on the border. there are huge distances involved. it would take time to move them in place and supplies. but this would tip NATO off to do the same time. if they tried surprise then it would mean that a lot of their forces would not benear the border.
Baltic nations
wooded and swampy terrain would make for perfect asymmetrical warfare. the Baltic forces are good for urban and woodland/swamp defense only. Russia would have to commit it whole WMD's Airborne corp, 6th CAA and likely the 1st Guard Tank Army to defeat the NATO forces. then the really hard part. holding it against follow on NATO forces and local guerrilla forces . This would take up a lot of Russia's WMD's Combat power.
Poland
it highly unlikely Russia could attack Poland and the Baltics at the same time just using the WMD. not only the lack of military forces but also the logistical issues. the only way they could mount a dual offensive would be if they preposition the Southern & Central MDs' Forces in the jump off points closer to the border and stockpiled supplies. of course NATO would detect this and do likewise. thus neglecting and for real weakening Russia position.
Also to attack Poland they only really have limited avenues of approach
thru the
Baltic nations (while their supply lines are being attack)
Belarus (either against their will, as allies or neutral) unlikely
Ukraine (they would have to fight their way though Ukraine and have to waste a lot of troops in anti partisan actions & garrison). highly unlikely
Norway.
Russia really just has it Marine Forces here. Because Norway really doesn't keep forces in the far far north. this is the one area would Russia would have the most success. but of course. the UK/Norway/Denmark army would be more then a match for the Russia forces in the long run. but terrain and weather would mean they would pay a huge price for limited gains. this is the best area for Russia gains. though limited to northern Norway.
Black Sea Area of Operations (AO)
Russia really can't mount Amphibious operations against Romania, Bulgaria or Greece because of a lack of Naval, Air Support Capabilities and Logistics. Now at first just those forces being there back up by the Southern MD would cause NATO to leave About 31 CBT Maneuver BDEs in the Balkens (Greece, Bulgaria, Romania & Macedonia). but once the Southern Forces are needed in the Baltic/Poland Frontier. then it likely that Nato could mount a Amphibious landing in the Crimea or send them as Reserves to the Baltic/Poland Frontier.
Deployed
Russian forces in Crimea, Georgia & Armenia. will mean that a sizable bit of Russia's Combat power won't be used
1 Recon BDE
2 Marine BDEs
3 Motor Infantry BDEs
6 Total CBT Maneuver BDEs
below is what would happen if Russia tried to get tactical and strategic surprise by attacking with it forces from their current locations.
NATO Forces in Baltic & Poland
Three Baltic Nations have (Active & Reserve) combined Population about 6 million.
2 Mech Infantry BDE
7 Infantry BDEs
3 NATO Mech infantry BN + Support Elements
Total about 10 CBT Maneuver BDEs
210 IFV (NATO & Baltic Forces)
120 Field artillery
Poland population 38.4m
1 NATO Corp HQ
4 Polish Div HQs
4 Armor BDEs
6 Mech Infantry BDEs
3 Recon BDEs
2 Air Assault BDEs
13 Security BDEs (weak light infantry encase of war)
28 total CBT Maneuver BDEs + 1 US ABCT [Not counting in totals]
3 Field Artillery BDEs
1 Cbt Air BDE
4 ADA BDEs
3 Engineer BDEs
2 Logistic BDEs
2 NBC/CBRN BDEs
479 Modern Tanks (Leopard 2A4/5, PT91)
158 Capable Tanks (T72A/M1)
637 Total Tanks
1,636 IFV
607 Indirect Fire Systems
454 ADA Guns/SAMs (including S300C)
Russia
Western Military District
Forward deployed forces
Marine Corp (Kaliningrad) Trapped. Best used as a Fortress or blocking force. to tie down reserves for Baltic AO.
2 Motor Infantry BDEs
1 Marine BDE
3 Total CBT Maneuver BDEs
1 SSM BDE
1 FA BDE
3 ADA BDEs
80 modern Tanks
240 IFVs
260 Indirect Fire Systems
Baltic Invasion Forces
Airborne Corp (best use is against Baltic states).
2 Div HQs
6 Airborne BDEs
3 FA BDEs
3 ADA BDEs
20 Capable Tanks
240 IFVs
108 Indirect fire systems
6th Combined Army (204 KM to Baltic Frontier)
2 Motor Infantry BDEs
2 FA BDEs
1 SSM BDE
1 ADA BDE
80 Capable Tanks
240 IFVs
320 Indirect Fire Systems
Poland Invasion or blocking force. also this force would have to drive through Belarus.
1st Guard Tank Army (is 983 KM from Polish border) or (678 KM to Baltic Frontier)
4 Armor BDEs
4 Motor Infantry BDEs
1 Recon BDE
9 CBT Maneuver BDEs
3 FA BDEs
1SSM BDE
3 ADA BDES
480 Modern Tanks
160 Capable Tanks
640 Total Tanks
780 IFVs
518 Indirect Fire Systems
20th Guard Combined Army (1240 KM to Polish Frontier)
1 Armor BDE
3 Motor Infantry BDEs
4 Total CBT Maneuver BDEs
2 FA BDEs
1 SSM BDE
1 ADA BDE
240 Capable Tanks
400 IFVs
300 Indirect Fire Systems
Western MD Reserves
2 Motor Infantry BDEs (a few months to get personnel mustered)
80 Capable Tanks
240 IFVs
60 Indirect Fire Systems
NATO Reserves
Light & Airborne/Air Assault BDEs can be flown in and arrive really quick. good defensive force
4 Infantry BDEs
4 Airborne BDEs
3 Air Assault BDEs
11 Total BDEs
4 CBT Aviation BDEs (274 CBT Attack Helicopters)
210 Indirect Fire Systems
Heavy/Medium BDEs will need Trains & Roads to move
Hungary (581 KM)
2 Mech Infantry BDEs
1 ADA BDE
6 Infantry BDEs (Reserves) will take time
30 Capable Tanks, 380 IFVs & 20 indirect fire systems
Czech Republic (610 KM)
2 Mech Infantry BDEs, 1 ISR BDE, 1 FA BDE
33 Capable Tanks, 222 IFVs & 48 Indirect Fire Systems
Slovakia (648 KM)
1 Armor & 1 Mech Infantry BDEs
30 Capable Tanks, 239 IFVs & 68 Indirect Fire Systems
UK Forces in Germany (710 KM)
1 Armor BDE
59 Advance Tanks, 509 IFVs, 29 Indirect Fire Systems
Germany (740 KM to polish frontier with Belarus)
5 Mech BDEs, 2 FA BDEs
19 Advance + 217 Modern = 236 Tanks
680 IFVs, 133 Indirect Fire Systems
Total Reserve Force that would arrive to Frontier about same time or before the Russian 1st Guard army arrived
2 Armor BDE
10 Mech Infantry BDEs
4 Infantry BDEs
4 Airborne BDEs
3 Air Assault BDEs
23 Total CBT BDEs
4 CBT Aviation BDEs
3 FA BDEs
1 ADA BDE
1 ISR BDE
78 Advance
217 Modern
93 Capable Tanks
388 Total Tanks
2030 IFVs, 508 Indirect Fire Systems & 274 Attack Helicopters
Netherlands (1209 KM)
2 Mech Infantry BDEs
170 IFVs & 59 Indirect Fire Systems
Belgium (1301 KM)
1 Mech Infantry BDE
127 IFVs, 14 Indirect Fire Systems
Italy (1305 KM)
1 Armor, 5 Mech Infantry & 1 Recon BDEs
1 FA & 1 ADA BDEs
160 Advance Tanks, 687 IFVs, 180 Indirect Fire Systems
France (1400 KM)
2 Armor & 1 Mech Infantry BDEs
2 FA BDEs
200 advance Tanks, 1800 IFVs, 105 Indirect Fire System
Total Forces arriving before or about the same time Russian 20th Guard Army Arrives.
3 Armor BDE
9 Mech Infantry BDEs
1 Recon BDE
13 Total CBT Maneuver BDES
3 FA & 1 ADA BDEs
360 Tanks
3584 IFVs
358 Indirect Fire Systems
Spain/Portugal (2417 KM)
12 Mech Infantry & 1 Recon BDEs
1 FA & 1 ADA BDEs
2 Infantry (Reserves would need time)
358 Modern
21 Capable
379 Total Tanks
602 IFVs, 204 Indirect Fire Systems
UK (has to be shipped)
2 Mech Infantry BDEs
2 FA & 1 ADA BDEs
6 Infantry BDEs (Norway)
NATO Balken Forces (can move to Polish/Baltic Frontier once Southern MD moves. Most can move at ant time before that.)
3 Recon, 5 Armor, 17 Mech Infantry, 8 Infantry, 2 Air Assault & 1 Airborne BDEs =36 total
1 Infantry (reserve)
5 FA,4 ADA, 1 Anti Tank & 1 CBT Avn BDEs
353 Modern, 809 Capable, 375 Poor & 460 Hopeless= 1997 Tanks
864 IFVs, & 2235 Indirect Fire Systems
Russia Reserves
Southern Military District
8th Guard Combined Arms Army (1670 KM)
1 Armor & 1 Motor Infantry BDEs
160 Capable Tanks, 160 IFVs & 60 Indirect Fire Systems
49th Combined Arms Army (2114 KM)
2 Motor Infantry BDEs
1 FA, 1 SSM & 1 ADA BDEs
80 Capable Tanks, 240 IFVs & 130 Indirect Fire Systems
58th Combined Arms Army (2507 KM)
5 Motor Infantry BDEs
2 FA & 1 ADA BDEs
200 Capable, 600 IFVs & 300 Indirect Fire Systems
Reserve
1 Motor Infantry BDE (Will need time)
Central Military District
2nd Guard Tank Army (2167 KM)
5 Motor Infantry BDEs
2 FA & 1 ADA BDEs
100 Modern + 100 Capable Tanks, 600 IFVs & 310 Indirect Fire Systems
Military District Forces (2917 KM)
2 Armor, 2 Motor Infantry & 1 Airborne BDEs
2 ADA BDEs
280 Capable Tanks, 200 IFVs, 90 Indirect Fire Systems
41st Combined Arms Army (4,463 KM)
4 Motor Infantry BDEs
1 FA, 1 SSM & 1 ADA BDEs
160 Capable Tanks, 480 IFVs, 210 Indirect Fire Systems
Eastern military District by the time they moved all of NATO's reserves will be up and deployed.
36st CAA (6577 KM)
29th CAA (7087 KM)
35th CAA (7512 KM)
EMD's Forces (8771 KM)
5th Combined Arms Army (9370 KM)
about the S300 and S400 systems.
Syrian military criticized the Russian S-300 missile defence system, saying that it was largely ineffective against Israeli air strikes. Syrian military sources talking to the Russian outlet
Avia.pro said that the radar used on the S-300 and the Pantsir-S system had proven to be incapable of detecting and hitting Israeli cruise missiles on numerous occasions.
Also NATO has done Training against the S300 as members of NATO have it and have used it in joint training events.
also most of the S300 & S400s are located at Russian Airbases to protect them. not on the border or close to the border. where Russian Fighter Jets will be getting Shot down.
the Remaining are based at Naval Bases.
also the S400 longest flying Missile is 250Km. while S300 is 125KM. and they have few of those. the radar is also limited on the number of targets it can detect at one time. and because of Russia lack of AEWC3s it doesn't have them to help with it battle management.
it confusing. but because of distances. NATO can not only have more forces overall in the main AO. but will maintain that.
I didn't even count NATO's 5 Marines BDEs. that they will be able to use either in Norway, Crimea or baltic sea.
like i said NATO doesn't really have the will to invade Russia nor the size and logics.
But Russia doesn't have the force structure or logistical support to even take then hold the Baltic nations much less Poland. Not to mention. Their Train Track Capabilities can't move that much equipment. slowing down their ability to move all those heavy units.
In closing.
If Russia was dumb enough for this they would risk all of putin's limited gains and likely lose them all.
1. 8th CAA is the only thing stopping Ukraine from retaking all of the Donbas.
2. Georgia would take back it two provinces if those two Motor Infantry BDEs left.
3. Ukraine would then take Crimea back once a weaken russia lost the war. or NATO could take and give it to them.
and for what to try to take the baltic.
anyone can punch a sleeping lion. but what do you do after you punch it and you don't have any weapons and it awake now?
