By Gregory Viscusi
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The terrorist attacks that killed at least 101 people in Mumbai late yesterday displayed a level of coordination and choice of targets that indicate international involvement, security experts say.
The attacks were certainly carried out by groups linked to al-Qaeda, Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini told Sky TG24 television today.
While experts werent so categorical, they said the signs pointed, at a minimum, to groups inspired by al-Qaeda and bombings in London and Madrid that followed the 2001 attacks on the U.S.
Teams of militants armed with grenades and rifles stormed the Taj Mahal Palace and Tower Hotel and the Oberoi Trident complex at about 10 p.m. yesterday, saying they were targeting Americans and Britons. They also attacked police stations, a Jewish community center, and a train station. Indian commandos later freed some of the hostages being held by the militants.
Highly symbolic but soft targets such as fancy hotels and the train station, and the use of synchronized coordinated teams, does show some of the same modus operandi as al-Qaeda- linked attacks in London and Madrid, said Andrea Plebani, a researcher at Centro Volta, a research institute based in Como, Italy. But its obviously too early to draw any conclusions.
The attacks were claimed by the Deccan Mujahedeen, a previously little-known group, the Press Trust of India said. Such assertions are meaningless, because groups make up one-time names for attacks or make bogus claims, said Anne Stenersen, a researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment.
No Suicide Bombers
The absence of suicide bombers prompted disagreement among analysts.
This was not some improvised attack, it certainly required lots of planning and organization, said Stenersen, who is based near Oslo. But al-Qaeda almost always uses suicide bombers, because martyrdom plays such a key role in their propaganda.
The lack of suicide bombers doesnt rule out al-Qaedas involvement, says Alexander Neill, head of the Asia program at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based research institute focused on defense and security. The people carrying out these attacks are certainly prepared to die, he says.
The scale of these attacks does indicate some level of outside planning and funding, even if it was most likely carried out by members of Indias growing radicalized Muslim minority, Neill says. That would argue for maybe not a direct logistical al-Qaeda role, but some link.
Wave of Attacks
A wave of bombings in markets, theaters and near mosques has killed more than 300 people this year in India. Most were linked to religious clashes between Hindus and Muslims, or to groups wanting independence for Kashmir, an Indian province with a Muslim majority.
The attacks on prestigious targets such as luxury hotels and the taking of Western hostages indicated a new terror tactic in India with echoes of previous bombings, said Plebani.
A series of coordinated suicide attacks killed 191 people on Madrid commuter trains on March 11, 2004 and 52 people on Londons underground metro and a bus on July 7, 2005. While each set of bombers was inspired by al-Qaeda rhetoric, no direct links were ever proved.
Part of the problem is that few agree on what al-Qaeda is.
Franchise?
Is al-Qaeda a real organization with a command and control structure, says Richard Cornwell, senior research fellow at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria. Or just a brand name and idea that you use, like a franchise? I think its more likely the latter.
Since 2001, when a U.S.-led coalition chased al-Qaedas leadership out of Afghanistan after the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington, al-Qaeda has provided leadership and its message from hideouts along the Afghan-Pakistan border, while the groups it inspires are increasingly autonomous, he said.
Regardless of who is behind the attacks, India will blame Pakistan, says Stratfor, a private risk-analysis company based in Austin, Texas.
If Indian authorities say it was a domestic group, they will be held accountable for a failure of enormous proportions in security and law enforcement, Stratfor said in a note to clients today. On the other hand, it can link the attack to an outside power: Pakistan. Politically this is a much preferable outcome for the Indian government, and so it is the most likely course of action.
Pakistans Condemnation
Pakistans President Asif Ali Zardari and Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi today condemned the terrorist attacks in Mumbai.
Between January 2004 and March 2007 the death toll from terrorist attacks in India was 3,674, second only to Iraq during the same period, according to the National Counterterrorism Center in Washington.
The Indian government has previously blamed terrorist attacks on organizations linked to foreign powers. Local media often blame the attacks on groups backed by Pakistan or Bangladesh, without identifying the security officials who provided the information.
Indias capital, New Delhi, was rocked by five blasts during an evening rush hour in September, killing as many as 26 people and injuring about 133. Indian Mujahadeen, which claimed responsibility for similar attacks in Ahmedabad and Jaipur, said it was behind the blasts.