#IMF revises up #Pakistan's 2016/2017 growth forecast to 5 percent http://reut.rs/29mzJad via @ReutersIndia
http://in.reuters.com/article/pakistan-imf-idINKCN0ZL1JH
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday increased to 5 percent its forecast for Pakistan's growth in the fiscal year to June 2017, from a previous estimate of 4.7 percent, citing China's plans to invest in road and energy infrastructure.
In September, Pakistan will end a three-year $6.7-billion financial assistance programme from the IMF, after the economy recovered from a series of financial crises, with growth at an eight-year high and increased foreign exchange reserves.
Fund officials say Pakistan has met all performance criteria for the assistance programme but urged Islamabad to keep tackling structural reforms to further increase growth and make it more inclusive.
"Growth is expected to strengthen to 5 percent in FY 2016/17, supported in part by an expected pick-up of investment related to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)," the fund said in a report.
The $46-billion CPEC project will focus on road building and energy infrastructure to end chronic power shortages in Pakistan. A highway is expected to link Western China with the port of Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea.
Fund officials say Pakistan's economy is likely to have grown 4.7 percent in the fiscal year to June 2016, a touch higher than their May estimate of 4.5 percent.
"Inflation is expected to remain contained at 5.2 percent in FY 2016/17, well-anchored by prudent monetary policy," the IMF added.
The IMF said Pakistan had also sought a four-week extension to the loan programme from Sept 3 to Sept 30 to "allow sufficient time to conduct discussions for the final review". It added Pakistan was in strong position to repay the IMF.
"Pakistan’s financing needs are fully covered for the remainder of the program and the country’s capacity to repay the Fund remains strong owing to supportive macroeconomic policies, resilient remittances inflows, and increasing foreign exchange reserves," the IMF said.
#Pakistan Investors Shrug Off Corruption Allegations Against #NawazSharif #PMLN #PanamaPapers http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingma...stan-stocks-shrug-off-corruption-allegations/ … via @barronsonline
Allegations of government malfeasance in Pakistan are unlikely to shorten the tenure of Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif, according to Eurasia Group.
Despite corruption charges that surfaced in the Panama Papers, with support from the opposition in Pakistan, the small Global X Pakistan Exchange-traded fund (PAK) is up about 15% this year, reflecting MSCI’s recent announcement that it will add the country to the MSCI Emerging Market index. The fund was down 1% in recent trading, while the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) was down 2% and the iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF (FM) was down 1.3%.
Analyst Christopher Cannell writes:
“Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz party (PML-N) will remain in London until … the end of the month of Ramazan, recovering from heart surgery even as he faces fresh corruption allegations stemming from the Panama Papers. Yet while the mounting allegations will weaken Sharif’s political position at a time when he was not present to defend himself, he will continue to lead the PML-N and early elections are highly unlikely. … The PML-N is likely to win the 2018 election with a reduced mandate …
The contest to replace him will be complicated by corruption allegations against many main contenders within the PML-N, sparking worsening political instability after the election … Sharif’s … approval rating has experienced a non-negligible drop from 75% in October 2015 to 54% in June 2016, the only poll conducted after the leaks. However, Sharif’s political standing is grounded on the PML-N’s strength in parliament, the tacit support of the Army, and the $46 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor – a set of infrastructure projects critical to Pakistan’s future economic performance—negotiated by Sharif and his PML-N. The PML-N remains the largest party in the lower house, and would not pass a motion of no-confidence in the PM, and it retains control of its Punjab heartland, the most populous area of Pakistan.
… Sharif’s heir apparent is his daughter Maryam Nawaz Sharif, currently the party’s unofficial social media coordinator. She is also reportedly increasingly involved in policy and party meetings while her father convalesces in London, despite having no formal political position. However, she has been directly named in the Panama Papers … “
There are a number of stories on Pakistan opposition leader Syed Khursheed Shah in Pakistan Today. Also see our posts How Do you Define “Emerging”? Pakistan Counts The Ways, MSCI Jazzed On Argentina & Pakistan, Not Nigeria Or China and How Panama Papers Could Play Out In EM.
http://in.reuters.com/article/pakistan-imf-idINKCN0ZL1JH
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday increased to 5 percent its forecast for Pakistan's growth in the fiscal year to June 2017, from a previous estimate of 4.7 percent, citing China's plans to invest in road and energy infrastructure.
In September, Pakistan will end a three-year $6.7-billion financial assistance programme from the IMF, after the economy recovered from a series of financial crises, with growth at an eight-year high and increased foreign exchange reserves.
Fund officials say Pakistan has met all performance criteria for the assistance programme but urged Islamabad to keep tackling structural reforms to further increase growth and make it more inclusive.
"Growth is expected to strengthen to 5 percent in FY 2016/17, supported in part by an expected pick-up of investment related to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)," the fund said in a report.
The $46-billion CPEC project will focus on road building and energy infrastructure to end chronic power shortages in Pakistan. A highway is expected to link Western China with the port of Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea.
Fund officials say Pakistan's economy is likely to have grown 4.7 percent in the fiscal year to June 2016, a touch higher than their May estimate of 4.5 percent.
"Inflation is expected to remain contained at 5.2 percent in FY 2016/17, well-anchored by prudent monetary policy," the IMF added.
The IMF said Pakistan had also sought a four-week extension to the loan programme from Sept 3 to Sept 30 to "allow sufficient time to conduct discussions for the final review". It added Pakistan was in strong position to repay the IMF.
"Pakistan’s financing needs are fully covered for the remainder of the program and the country’s capacity to repay the Fund remains strong owing to supportive macroeconomic policies, resilient remittances inflows, and increasing foreign exchange reserves," the IMF said.
#Pakistan Investors Shrug Off Corruption Allegations Against #NawazSharif #PMLN #PanamaPapers http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingma...stan-stocks-shrug-off-corruption-allegations/ … via @barronsonline
Allegations of government malfeasance in Pakistan are unlikely to shorten the tenure of Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif, according to Eurasia Group.
Despite corruption charges that surfaced in the Panama Papers, with support from the opposition in Pakistan, the small Global X Pakistan Exchange-traded fund (PAK) is up about 15% this year, reflecting MSCI’s recent announcement that it will add the country to the MSCI Emerging Market index. The fund was down 1% in recent trading, while the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) was down 2% and the iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF (FM) was down 1.3%.
Analyst Christopher Cannell writes:
“Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz party (PML-N) will remain in London until … the end of the month of Ramazan, recovering from heart surgery even as he faces fresh corruption allegations stemming from the Panama Papers. Yet while the mounting allegations will weaken Sharif’s political position at a time when he was not present to defend himself, he will continue to lead the PML-N and early elections are highly unlikely. … The PML-N is likely to win the 2018 election with a reduced mandate …
The contest to replace him will be complicated by corruption allegations against many main contenders within the PML-N, sparking worsening political instability after the election … Sharif’s … approval rating has experienced a non-negligible drop from 75% in October 2015 to 54% in June 2016, the only poll conducted after the leaks. However, Sharif’s political standing is grounded on the PML-N’s strength in parliament, the tacit support of the Army, and the $46 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor – a set of infrastructure projects critical to Pakistan’s future economic performance—negotiated by Sharif and his PML-N. The PML-N remains the largest party in the lower house, and would not pass a motion of no-confidence in the PM, and it retains control of its Punjab heartland, the most populous area of Pakistan.
… Sharif’s heir apparent is his daughter Maryam Nawaz Sharif, currently the party’s unofficial social media coordinator. She is also reportedly increasingly involved in policy and party meetings while her father convalesces in London, despite having no formal political position. However, she has been directly named in the Panama Papers … “
There are a number of stories on Pakistan opposition leader Syed Khursheed Shah in Pakistan Today. Also see our posts How Do you Define “Emerging”? Pakistan Counts The Ways, MSCI Jazzed On Argentina & Pakistan, Not Nigeria Or China and How Panama Papers Could Play Out In EM.
