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Moscow confused as IAF puts fifth-generation fighter on back burner to buy Rafale

No developmental plan on Twin seat,
IAF wants integration and joint development on next gen Engine
ToT in Turbine profile, material and fadec control
JV in RCS testing and data sharing
ToT for RVV-SD ramjet
Irbis E AESA Radar

Thats quite a list and i'm not sure if the original inter governmental agreement had space for accommodating all of these.
In recent past (specifically in case of Rafale deal), i get a feeling that while the idea of Indian government to allow the industry to grow having a symbiotic relation with a large defence deal, is a noble one, not sure if bureaucratic setup is capable to strike out such deals.
I mean if we see G2G agreements with US (for IAF), we note that where no ToT was involved, C-130J, C-17, P8i, all agreements and subsequent purchase orders were executed in a refreshingly smooth manner with virtually no delays.
however in protracted negotiations for Rafale and now PAK FA and its Indian derivatives, things seem to be moving in almost identical manner.
So while it is true that we want to develop our own manufacturing base (if done properly, Make in India initiative may allow it to happen to some extent surely), trying to develop own R&D base from virtually zero leveraging such large deals might not be feasible.
unfortunately we end up in situations where we neither have hardware nor technology even after investing large period of time, something atleast IAF is really running short of.
Maybe just someone has to look at this whole thing holistically and then consider if it would be prudent to enter into development agreements de-linked from critical hardware requirements. Otherwise it will remain the case of history repeating itself.
 
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Moscow confused as IAF puts fifth-generation fighter on back burner to buy Rafale

Ajai Shukla | Moscow (Russia) Aug 28, 2015 12:21 AM IST
1398190612-7444.jpg
The ongoing MAKS 2015 air show in Moscow features an impressive flying display by the Sukhoi T-50, the fifth-generation prototype fighter's first public outing in two years. But even the rousing applause fails to mask the disappointment of Russian officials at the Indian Air Force's (IAF's) foot-dragging in co-developing the T-50 into a "fifth generation fighter aircraft" (FGFA) that the IAF will buy.

Well-informed sources in Moscow say the IAF vice chief has written a letter that effectively blocks the FGFA project. It criticises 27 different aspects of the FGFA, raising questions that must be answered before New Delhi and Moscow put $2.5 billion each into jointly developing the advanced fighter.


Business Standard also learns the IAF has vetoed a Russian offer to co-develop a fifth-generation engine for the FGFA. This is baffling to the Russians, given the Defence R&D Organisation (DRDO) long-standing attempts at joint engine development in order to end India's expensive dependency on foreign vendors for aero engines. An internal DRDO estimation reckons that India will import aero engines worth Rs 3,50,000 crore over the next decade.

After the DRDO failed to develop the Kaveri engine to the level where it could power the indigenous Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), it strived to persuade French engine-maker, Snecma, to co-develop an engine. But Snecma declined to share key technologies, especially those relating to materials that can withstand the hellish temperatures created in the engine's combustion chamber.

Nor has Washington agreed to share these technologies, even after President Barack Obama agreed during his January visit to New Delhi that a "joint working group" would explore US-India cooperation in engine technology.

DRDO and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) officials say the Russian offer of engine co-development fits well with the FGFA project itself, since the engine will power the same fighter. Currently, the Sukhoi T-50 is powered by the NPO Saturn AL-41F1, which only is a souped-up version of the AL-31FP engine that powers the Sukhoi-30MKI. A brand new, more powerful, engine is needed to let the FGFA supercruise, or fly at supersonic speeds while cruising without an afterburner. This is considered essential for a fifth-generation fighter.

Military aerospace experts worldwide believe that, given Moscow's economic distress, the T-50 project badly needs India's financial partnership to move forward. So far, the Russian Air Force has ordered only one squadron of T-50s.

Sergey Chemezov, who heads Rostec, the powerful Russian high-technology agency, downplays India's delay. "As for the involvement with India, there is a certain delay, though this is not something that we (Russia) can be responsible for. On our end we can fully continue the development of the project as per our commitments," Chemezov told Business Standard.

But even the defence ministry is questioning why the IAF is delaying a project it has earlier championed, and to which India has committed itself with an Indo-Russian inter-governmental agreement (IGA) and the expenditure of about $300 million in a "preliminary design phase". Critics of the IAF allege it is scuttling the long-term benefits of co-developing the FGFA in order to quickly buy the Rafale, preferably in numbers larger than the 36 fighters that the prime minister requested in Paris in April. A defence ministry official says that, in its eagerness to obtain the Rafale, the IAF has deliberately placed holds on every other aircraft procurement, including the FGFA, the Tejas and the plan to extend the Jaguar's service life by fitting it with a new engine.

According to this official, the IAF aims to create the impression of a dangerous shortage of fighters, so that the government buys the Rafale quickly. In another volte-face, the IAF has proposed that the FGFA not be co-developed but limited numbers of the T-50 fighter be built in India.

If implemented, this would take India back to the 1970s and 1980s procurement model, which involved license-producing fighters like the MiG-21 and Jaguar in HAL without Indian involvement in designing or developing the aircraft.

In the 1990s and 2000s this was superseded by another procurement model that was first implemented in the Sukhoi-30MKI. In this, India specified modifications to the baseline Russian fighter, improving the Sukhoi-30 into the Sukhoi-30MKI through advanced avionics and a thrust-vectoring engine. The much-improved fighter continues to be licence-built in HAL Nashik.

However, by accepting the Sukhoi T-50 without improvements, the IAF is reverting to the 1990s.

This would be a volte-face by the IAF. Three years ago, the IAF has specified 40-45 improvements that it deemed essential for the T-50, listing these out in a so-called "Tactical Technical Assignment". This wish list included: 360-degree radar coverage by adding two sideward-looking radars; and more powerful engines;

The design and development needed for meeting the IAF's requirements would constitute India's work share of 25-30 per cent. If the IAF now demands the same fighter as the Russian Air Force, HAL's work share would fall to zero. And the IAF would get a fighter designed for the Russian Air Force.
Moscow needs to look inwards before it starts criticising others- the PAK-FA was meant to be in service with the RuAF and a FGFA testbeds in India by now whilst the reality is their abysmal development has lead to only a handful of prototypes, an unclear roadmap, no FGFA to be seen, no future engine and the same number of testbeds they had 2 years ago.


The Rafale purchase is to meet the needs of the IAF TODAY-nothing more, nothing less. Such a purchase has nothing to do with the FGFA, that is still the IAF's long term ambition but the Russians are ensuring this is more and more long term in nature.
 
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Moscow needs to look inwards before it starts criticising others- the PAK-FA was meant to be in service with the RuAF and a FGFA testbeds in India by now whilst the reality is their abysmal development has lead to only a handful of prototypes, an unclear roadmap, no FGFA to be seen, no future engine and the same number of testbeds they had 2 years ago.


The Rafale purchase is to meet the needs of the IAF TODAY-nothing more, nothing less. Such a purchase has nothing to do with the FGFA, that is still the IAF's long term ambition but the Russians are ensuring this is more and more long term in nature.
that's true.
i'm not sure of reasons (economic or otherwise) but the russian approach towards PAK FA has been pretty ad-hoc. it almost seems half hearted.
one reason could be that european economy in dol drums, a significant number of NATO nations may not be able to afford that many F 35 and that would mean reduction in threat on Russia's west.
all this realpolitic developments might be taking toll on the program.
 
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seems to me India has leverage then. Russian doesn't need the T-50 nor do they want to buy 100s of them. since they would hangar queens just like the F-22.

I just don't see why they don't look else for the funding. I'm sure a rich gulf country would more than happy to invest in the Pak Fa program and buy a few dozen.
 
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And here members were dreaming of LCA TEJAS MKII production rate at a squadron per year from 2017.....that is barely 2 years from now.
 
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I just don't see why they don't look else for the funding. I'm sure a rich gulf country would more than happy to invest in the Pak Fa program and buy a few dozen.
Israel and Saudis will get F 35, which means traditional users of Russian hardware like syria, egypt could show interest in PAK FA, as could Iran. but given political turmoil in egypt and Syria and Iran returning into international fold slowly, i don't see much of investment coming into program. Venezuela could be a potential buyer.
 
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that's true.
i'm not sure of reasons (economic or otherwise) but the russian approach towards PAK FA has been pretty ad-hoc. it almost seems half hearted.
one reason could be that european economy in dol drums, a significant number of NATO nations may not be able to afford that many F 35 and that would mean reduction in threat on Russia's west.
all this realpolitic developments might be taking toll on the program.
A perfectly logical explanation is the fact that Russia's economy is in the doldrums and crippled by economic sanctions and they are expecting/hoping India will bail them out in the defence sector just as they hope China will do with them up in the economic field to a greater extent. This is a hugely ambitious and costly exercise the Russians have embarked upon but they have not got the means to fund it- hence they brought in India to contribute 50% of the requisite budget but are celery unable to deliver on their side of the deal. In the midst of this their foreign policy has exacerbated the situation by embroiling themselves in a conflict that has lead to sanctions.

The PAK-FA and numerous other military programs that are/were in the pipeline have been notable casualties of this situation.

India cannot be strong-armed into bearing the entire cost of this already costly program no matter how much nonsense their state media (RIN, RT,Sputnik news etc) and officials (those speaking at MAKS) put out. India will tend to her own needs i.e. the Rafale purchase. The FGFA will remain the goal but don't be too surprised if sooner rather than later we start hearing more about the AMCA as a potential hedge- the Russians have got themselves into this mess, it is not for India to dig them out of it.
 
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seems to me India has leverage then. Russian doesn't need the T-50 nor do they want to buy 100s of them. since they would hangar queens just like the F-22.

I just don't see why they don't look else for the funding. I'm sure a rich gulf country would more than happy to invest in the Pak Fa program and buy a few dozen.

The same reason US does not share F22 tech with even UK or Japan.
 
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A perfectly logical explanation is the fact that Russia's economy is in the doldrums and crippled by economic sanctions and they are expecting/hoping India will bail them out in the defence sector just as they hope China will do with them up in the economic field to a greater extent. This is a hugely ambitious and costly exercise the Russians have embarked upon but they have not got the means to fund it- hence they brought in India to contribute 50% of the requisite budget but are celery unable to deliver on their side of the deal. In the midst of this their foreign policy has exacerbated the situation by embroiling themselves in a conflict that has lead to sanctions.

The PAK-FA and numerous other military programs that are/were in the pipeline have been notable casualties of this situation.

India cannot be strong-armed into bearing the entire cost of this already costly program no matter how much nonsense their state media (RIN, RT,Sputnik news etc) and officials (those speaking at MAKS) put out. India will tend to her own needs i.e. the Rafale purchase. The FGFA will remain the goal but don't be too surprised if sooner rather than later we start hearing more about the AMCA as a potential hedge- the Russians have got themselves into this mess, it is not for India to dig them out of it.
i don't want to sound like doomsday soothsayer but yes things are reminiscent of early 1990s. economically speaking things are getting bad for Russia and now we may see some correction or a period of relatively slower growth in China. EU is still far away from any visible recovery and in this scenario military expenditure will be a casualty.
India too might need to do some course correction and while it is too early to comment on AMCA, i won't be surprised if F 35 pops out of no where for possible IAF role. In any case F 35 is looking a strong possibility for IN, so who knows...
 
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i don't want to sound like doomsday soothsayer but yes things are reminiscent of early 1990s. economically speaking things are getting bad for Russia and now we may see some correction or a period of relatively slower growth in China. EU is still far away from any visible recovery and in this scenario military expenditure will be a casualty.
India too might need to do some course correction and while it is too early to comment on AMCA, i won't be surprised if F 35 pops out of no where for possible IAF role. In any case F 35 is looking a strong possibility for IN, so who knows...
Aside from Russia (an irrelevance on the global economic stage really) and China the global economic outlook was/is actually looking,relatively, quite strong for 2015-16. Greece has surpassed growth estimates and is no longer looking likely to default, the US has posted some relatively healthy employment and GDP figures, Germany is not doing too bad and neither other other large EU economies like the UK. We can already see that global stock markets are recovering from a turbulent start to the week and whilst there is some correction going on in China and severe concerns around that market because of the lack of transparency and thus suspicion of much of their stated economic data, I don't think the floor is about to be removed, the global outlook looks relatively stable.

As for India, it is doing very well even in these less than optimal times and I don't see this changing in the near future. As for the F-35 with the IAF- I don't see it at all, the IN might opt for it but the IAF is not going to IMHO.
 
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india is itself is confused as to what it need to do
 
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Moscow confused as IAF puts fifth-generation fighter on back burner to buy Rafale

Ajai Shukla | Moscow (Russia) Aug 28, 2015 12:21 AM IST
1398190612-7444.jpg
The ongoing MAKS 2015 air show in Moscow features an impressive flying display by the Sukhoi T-50, the fifth-generation prototype fighter's first public outing in two years. But even the rousing applause fails to mask the disappointment of Russian officials at the Indian Air Force's (IAF's) foot-dragging in co-developing the T-50 into a "fifth generation fighter aircraft" (FGFA) that the IAF will buy.

Well-informed sources in Moscow say the IAF vice chief has written a letter that effectively blocks the FGFA project. It criticises 27 different aspects of the FGFA, raising questions that must be answered before New Delhi and Moscow put $2.5 billion each into jointly developing the advanced fighter.


Business Standard also learns the IAF has vetoed a Russian offer to co-develop a fifth-generation engine for the FGFA. This is baffling to the Russians, given the Defence R&D Organisation (DRDO) long-standing attempts at joint engine development in order to end India's expensive dependency on foreign vendors for aero engines. An internal DRDO estimation reckons that India will import aero engines worth Rs 3,50,000 crore over the next decade.

After the DRDO failed to develop the Kaveri engine to the level where it could power the indigenous Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), it strived to persuade French engine-maker, Snecma, to co-develop an engine. But Snecma declined to share key technologies, especially those relating to materials that can withstand the hellish temperatures created in the engine's combustion chamber.

Nor has Washington agreed to share these technologies, even after President Barack Obama agreed during his January visit to New Delhi that a "joint working group" would explore US-India cooperation in engine technology.

DRDO and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) officials say the Russian offer of engine co-development fits well with the FGFA project itself, since the engine will power the same fighter. Currently, the Sukhoi T-50 is powered by the NPO Saturn AL-41F1, which only is a souped-up version of the AL-31FP engine that powers the Sukhoi-30MKI. A brand new, more powerful, engine is needed to let the FGFA supercruise, or fly at supersonic speeds while cruising without an afterburner. This is considered essential for a fifth-generation fighter.

Military aerospace experts worldwide believe that, given Moscow's economic distress, the T-50 project badly needs India's financial partnership to move forward. So far, the Russian Air Force has ordered only one squadron of T-50s.

Sergey Chemezov, who heads Rostec, the powerful Russian high-technology agency, downplays India's delay. "As for the involvement with India, there is a certain delay, though this is not something that we (Russia) can be responsible for. On our end we can fully continue the development of the project as per our commitments," Chemezov told Business Standard.

But even the defence ministry is questioning why the IAF is delaying a project it has earlier championed, and to which India has committed itself with an Indo-Russian inter-governmental agreement (IGA) and the expenditure of about $300 million in a "preliminary design phase". Critics of the IAF allege it is scuttling the long-term benefits of co-developing the FGFA in order to quickly buy the Rafale, preferably in numbers larger than the 36 fighters that the prime minister requested in Paris in April. A defence ministry official says that, in its eagerness to obtain the Rafale, the IAF has deliberately placed holds on every other aircraft procurement, including the FGFA, the Tejas and the plan to extend the Jaguar's service life by fitting it with a new engine.

According to this official, the IAF aims to create the impression of a dangerous shortage of fighters, so that the government buys the Rafale quickly. In another volte-face, the IAF has proposed that the FGFA not be co-developed but limited numbers of the T-50 fighter be built in India.

If implemented, this would take India back to the 1970s and 1980s procurement model, which involved license-producing fighters like the MiG-21 and Jaguar in HAL without Indian involvement in designing or developing the aircraft.

In the 1990s and 2000s this was superseded by another procurement model that was first implemented in the Sukhoi-30MKI. In this, India specified modifications to the baseline Russian fighter, improving the Sukhoi-30 into the Sukhoi-30MKI through advanced avionics and a thrust-vectoring engine. The much-improved fighter continues to be licence-built in HAL Nashik.

However, by accepting the Sukhoi T-50 without improvements, the IAF is reverting to the 1990s.

This would be a volte-face by the IAF. Three years ago, the IAF has specified 40-45 improvements that it deemed essential for the T-50, listing these out in a so-called "Tactical Technical Assignment". This wish list included: 360-degree radar coverage by adding two sideward-looking radars; and more powerful engines;

The design and development needed for meeting the IAF's requirements would constitute India's work share of 25-30 per cent. If the IAF now demands the same fighter as the Russian Air Force, HAL's work share would fall to zero. And the IAF would get a fighter designed for the Russian Air Force.

No one know whst the fuk we will do. New government is really tight lipped and surprise are unprecedented. Luckily due to congress wali Russians clearly predicted the collapse and even Britain's and German started to push for EF but what happened ? We bought 36 rafale which baffled Russians chinese indians :P UK and even french thats the level of this government policies water tight planning .

But saying that I guess our plan is very clear . We moght take up 60 as our lucky number and go for 60 pakfa during PM visit to russia +20 for training since imdia will operate large number of FGFA . 18 more rafale is ver possible as extra orders in mid term of deal 3 squadrons +10 trainer and reserve . 60 Tejas MK1-P and 10-20 trainer for MKI and MK2 .

More over the magic number 60 goed for sukoi orders aswell . As 60 more to come by 2020-22 . So tge stage is set for 2022 . If its true if am correct our airforce will become a major power in whole of asia as AMCA MK2 FGFA to follow after 2022 -24 ... 180 new aircraft till 2022 to replace 300 some migs .

india is itself is confused as to what it need to do

It happens when you hsve more than enough jet makers begs for orders

Aside from Russia (an irrelevance on the global economic stage really) and China the global economic outlook was/is actually looking,relatively, quite strong for 2015-16. Greece has surpassed growth estimates and is no longer looking likely to default, the US has posted some relatively healthy employment and GDP figures, Germany is not doing too bad and neither other other large EU economies like the UK. We can already see that global stock markets are recovering from a turbulent start to the week and whilst there is some correction going on in China and severe concerns around that market because of the lack of transparency and thus suspicion of much of their stated economic data, I don't think the floor is about to be removed, the global outlook looks relatively stable.

As for India, it is doing very well even in these less than optimal times and I don't see this changing in the near future. As for the F-35 with the IAF- I don't see it at all, the IN might opt for it but the IAF is not going to IMHO.

True we wont by f35 for IAF no way . But navy could opt it for eithrr A/C or for 4 landing ships .As surface vessels not gonna do dog fight with f35 only draw back for the programme . Rest f35 will eat chinese surface fleet for its dinner
 
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Thats quite a list and i'm not sure if the original inter governmental agreement had space for accommodating all of these.
In recent past (specifically in case of Rafale deal), i get a feeling that while the idea of Indian government to allow the industry to grow having a symbiotic relation with a large defence deal, is a noble one, not sure if bureaucratic setup is capable to strike out such deals.
I mean if we see G2G agreements with US (for IAF), we note that where no ToT was involved, C-130J, C-17, P8i, all agreements and subsequent purchase orders were executed in a refreshingly smooth manner with virtually no delays.
however in protracted negotiations for Rafale and now PAK FA and its Indian derivatives, things seem to be moving in almost identical manner.
So while it is true that we want to develop our own manufacturing base (if done properly, Make in India initiative may allow it to happen to some extent surely), trying to develop own R&D base from virtually zero leveraging such large deals might not be feasible.
unfortunately we end up in situations where we neither have hardware nor technology even after investing large period of time, something atleast IAF is really running short of.
Maybe just someone has to look at this whole thing holistically and then consider if it would be prudent to enter into development agreements de-linked from critical hardware requirements. Otherwise it will remain the case of history repeating itself.
Context of the G2G you listed are quite different. these are 10-15 units max, here we are looking at 100-150 units initial, and we all know how IAF reqs can balloon up.
 
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The biggest threat to IAF is IAF itself....
Mig27 Al31 re-engine - discarded
Jaguar - Honeywell Engine -stalled
LCA Mk2- Stalled
Dare III upg- stalled
DARIN III- Upgrade- Slow
Rafale - Huge Clusterfuck

If MoD has any sense, it should start looking at enlarging the Naval air Arm instead of relying on IAF now.
You are correct,
Even in the US, its the Naval aviation which does the bulk of the fighting.
I am not saying that we follow the US,
But we can withdraw the 2 Su30MKI sqds currently stationed in Gujarat, and whose sole purpose is Maritime strike in the Arabian sea. We can replace them with 30-36 Mig29Ks which should not cost more than 1.5 Billion USD. That should allow the IAF to redeploy those Su30MKI in Punjab or Arunachal.

At present Indian Navy has 2 Mig29K Sqds and 1 Harrier Sqd,
The sea Harriers will retire in 2016, along with INS Viraat and the Navy will raise a 3rd Mig29K Sqd to replace them.
Indian Navy also plans to induct 46 LCA N, to complement 45 Mig29Ks.
Indian airforce currently have 36 Su30MKI and 12 Jaguars IN for Maritime strike role.
All I am saying is that, if MOD orders more Mig29Ks, then IAF can use the more capable Su30MKI for more critical roles.
We already have a 100 Mig29S/Ks having 30-36 more won't cost that much as far as maintenance and training go, but Having 36 Rafales will seriously cost a lot more
 
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